China and the dilemma over the war in Ukraine 7:42
(CNN) --
China and Russia are adamant about changing the "rules based on the current world order," according to the top US general.
The forecast by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, offered Tuesday as he asked Congress for more money for the Pentagon, is of an era in which full-scale war between great powers is a possibility.
Senior US general warns potential for 'significant international conflict' is on the rise
"We are entering a world that is becoming more unstable, and the potential for significant international conflict between great powers is increasing, not decreasing."
The Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens "not just European peace and stability, but the global peace and stability that my parents and a generation of Americans fought so hard to defend," Milley said.
It's not really asking for enough money for the Pentagon, according to many Republicans and some moderate Democrats, who pointed out that the Defense Department failed to properly account for inflation when it requested $773 billion for fiscal 2023, an increase of 4 percent. % that is lower than inflation, which is currently the highest in the last 40 years.
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To better respond to inflation, the Pentagon is being asked to receive more than it asked for.
The war in Ukraine and warnings like Milley's will only focus Americans on security.
The threat Russia poses to America's NATO allies in Europe has been clear since the invasion of Ukraine, but Milley referred to Russia in the same sense as China.
The growth of China's military, particularly its navy, has worried US defense officials and lawmakers in recent years.
A New Arms Race:
Emblematic of concerns about US military dominance is the very specific focus in recent weeks on hypersonic missiles.
"The United States has placed a renewed emphasis on hypersonic weapons following successful Russian and Chinese tests in recent months, exacerbating concerns in Washington that the United States is falling behind in a military technology seen as critical to the future," he wrote recently. CNN's Oren Liebermann.
The United States successfully tested a hypersonic missile in March and kept it secret to avoid tensions with Russia.
There is a growing narrative, not unlike the one pushed by President Joe Biden, that the United States is falling behind China in its technological capability, that the United States military is falling behind China's.
"Chinese unprecedented military modernization has allowed them to get ahead of us in key capabilities," Representative Mike Rogers of Alabama said at Tuesday's hearing.
"The Chinese Communist Party now controls the largest Army and Navy in the world. It has more troops, more ships and more hypersonic missiles than the United States."
To find out more about what the United States knows about China's military capability and spending, I reached out to Matthew P. Funaiole, China expert, data analyst, and senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Below, I share six key takeaways from our phone conversation, lightly edited for clarity and length.
1. China has a long-term strategic objective that involves the United States
Funaiole:
China wants to establish itself as the main agent of power in the Indo-Pacific, to displace the US in that sense, and considers that its army is one of the main means to achieve this... it is seen that this materializes different ways.
The one that gets a lot of attention is the modernization of its navy and all the efforts it is making to build new surface combatants, modernize submarines and develop an aircraft carrier program.
That's where we're seeing a lot of progress happening pretty quickly.
2. The idea that China has "overtaken" the United States needs context
Funaiole:
China is still far behind the United States in global spending (less than half, according to this estimate).
But an important caveat is that the United States maintains a global presence and has military assets around the world... China's forces are much more localized in the region... but it also spends more than Korea, Japan and Vietnam combined... So you have to think about it again in the context of comparing that expense.
In terms of technology, Funaiole argued that the United States continues to hold a lead in research and development, but that China has clearly worked to catch up in some specific areas.
3. The Chinese Army, like the Russian Army, lacks the human component that the US Army has.
Funaiole: The
United States, for better or worse, has been involved in conflicts around the world fairly consistently since the end of WWII, while China's military is untested.
So technology is important and military spending is really important.
But the one area where China can't jump ahead, because it's just based on experience, is the personnel component.
Whereas the United States can draw on generations of ingrained experience... So the technology tells you one part, the spending tells you one part, but there's also that human component where China doesn't have that experience.
China and the European Union meet to discuss Russia: their huge trade relations are at stake
4. China and Russia are not exactly allies
Funaiole:
I think that framework of autocracies versus democracies is effective in understanding what is at risk right now in the way we think about these international norms and ideals.
But China and Russia work together as partners, they are closer on some things than others, but they are not allies in the same way that we traditionally think of allies in the American system.
The proof Funaiole offered is that the West, including the United States and its allies, has effectively united against Russia in Ukraine, but China has kept its distance.
5. Monitor the development of the Chinese Navy
Funaiole:
When China launches its third aircraft carrier, which is going to be a flat-top carrier, it's going to use a... catapult system to launch the planes, which is a new advanced technology... And within a couple of years , when it is actually positioned in the Navy, it will be something that will be talked about.
When China develops its first nuclear reactor to power aircraft carriers, people will start talking about it...
We need to have a more complete understanding of the spaces that China is investing in, where China is upgrading its military, and what that necessarily means, as far as US interests are concerned, on US capacity. US to develop or take advantage of existing countermeasures.
6. Putin's difficulty in Ukraine sends a message to China
Funaiole:
If a month or six weeks ago you thought it was possible to test the system without great resistance, now you might think differently… We are certainly entering or have entered a more multipolar era in which the bygone days of American unipolarity have faded. eroded, but we're also seeing quite effective use of how the United States can build coalitions with allies and partners to help reinforce the principles, ideals, and institutions that they stand for.
China Army
