Abstention could approach its historic level for the first round of the presidential election.
According to forecasts by the Odoxa institute for
Le Figaro
, 27.4% of French people may not go to the polls on Sunday.
An estimate close to the highest level of abstention for a first round, measured in 2002 at 28.4%.
After a resurgence in participation in 2007, abstention continued to increase during the two presidential elections that followed, reaching 22.2% in 2017.
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A more uncertain vote on the left
According to Odoxa, abstention could be strongest among left-wing supporters, starting with those of the PS (27.8%), France insoumise (27.5%) and EELV (20.6%) .
Voters close to LREM are the safest to go to the polls (12.5% estimated abstainers).
Abstention would affect young people more: 40% of 18-24 year olds and 34% of 25-34 year olds could abstain against only 20% of those aged 65 and over.
In addition, the inhabitants of the most modest households are the most likely not to vote on Sunday: they are 41% against 16% of the members of the wealthiest households.
Read alsoJérôme Jaffré: "Abstention, electoral risk for Le Pen, political risk for Macron"
The other lesson of this survey concerns the strong uncertainty of the vote three days before the election: 29% of French people who say they are certain to vote do not yet know for whom or can change their minds.
The most undecided voters are supporters of the PS (57%) and EELV (46%).
A source of hope for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has been making progress in recent days in the polls, especially since his supporters are much more certain not to change their minds (80%).
The strongest voters are supporters of LREM (91%), RN (90%) and Reconquête (87%).
LR supporters are much less sure of their choice (69%).
A still strong uncertainty at the end of a campaign which will not have marked the spirits of the French.
More than six out of ten respondents (62%) are not or little interested in this election.
Even more surprising: according to Odoxa, 12% of French people do not know that the first round is being held this Sunday.