NATO breakthrough in Finland?

Accession "a foregone conclusion" - but President fears trouble from Russia

Created: 04/12/2022, 04:51

By: Markus Hofstetter

Finnish reservists during an exercise in South Karelia (archive photo) © Lauri Heino/imago

The Ukraine conflict unsettles the Russian neighbor Finland.

Joining NATO soon should bring security.

Violent reactions are expected from the Kremlin.

Helsinki - Finland can look back on an eventful history - it is also shaped by the relationship with the large eastern neighbor Russia.

The Nordic country with its 5.5 million inhabitants has a 1300 km long border with Russia, or the former Soviet Union.

This relationship was and is difficult.

Finland declared its independence from Russia in 1917.

During World War II, the vastly outnumbered Finnish army repelled an invasion by Soviet troops.

The fighting ended with a peace agreement, according to which Finland had to cede several border areas to the Soviet Union.

During the Cold War, Finland agreed to remain non-aligned militarily, i.e. not to join NATO.

In return, the Kremlin gave a guarantee not to invade the country.

The EU country's enforced neutrality, aimed at not provoking its stronger neighbor, coined the term "Finlandization".

Finland joins NATO: Ukraine war makes people and politicians rethink

Only a few months ago, an end to Finland's neutrality seemed unthinkable.

But the Ukraine conflict has done away with old certainties. According to surveys, Finnish support for NATO membership has doubled from 30 to 60 percent since the beginning of the war.

Now it should be quick.

A government-commissioned report on national security is expected to be presented to Parliament before Easter.

This is a first step in preparing for a vote on a NATO membership application.

Finland joining NATO: The decision should be made before the end of June

Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb assumes that an application for NATO membership is "a foregone conclusion" in view of the new threat situation.

He expects the application for membership to be submitted in May, in time for the NATO summit in Madrid at the end of June.

The current head of government, Sanna Marin, is also positive about the project.

"We will have very careful discussions, but we will not take any more time than necessary," she announced.

A decision should be made before the end of June.

Although Marin has so far spoken neither for nor against an application for membership, she did point out the advantages of NATO membership.

“NATO Article 5 offers comprehensive security.

NATO also has common exercises and a common defense policy," Marin said in the in-depth interview with

on Sunday

.

Finland joins NATO: A large majority is emerging in Parliament

In the Finnish parliament, as in the population, there are signs of a majority in favor of joining NATO.

Only six of the 200 Finnish MPs expressed

reservations about NATO in a recent poll by

The Ukraine war "changed something in Europe that can no longer be reversed," says Joonas Könttä, MP for the Center Party, according to

.

Like many of his parliamentary colleagues, he has now changed his mind on the "NATO question" and advocates joining the military alliance.

On the way to NATO membership, Russia will most likely try to put obstacles in the way of Finland.

There have already been threats from the Kremlin against Helsinki.

Because he classifies the expansion of the western defense alliance as a security threat.

Russia cited Ukraine's desire to join NATO as one of the main reasons for the invasion of the neighboring country.

Finland joins NATO: Foreign Minister expects Russian destabilization attempts

For this reason, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto expects attempts to destabilize Russia during the accession process, which will take four to twelve months.

Experts also point out that in the past Moscow has regularly threatened Finland with "serious political and military consequences" if it joins NATO.

And Finnish President Sauli Niinistö acknowledged in late March that his country's application for NATO membership could provoke "violent" responses from Russia.

As a non-NATO country, Finland's post-Cold War focus was on expanding its defense capabilities.

Last week, the government decided to increase defense spending by 40 percent by 2026. "We are able to mobilize 280,000 to 300,000 men and women within a few days," says former Prime Minister Stubb.

In addition, 900,000 reservists could be called up.

Sweden joins NATO: Stockholm government wants to adapt security analyzes to the new situation

Something is also happening in Sweden, which is also neutral, in terms of joining NATO, which has not been very popular up to now.

The Stockholm government has announced a security analysis similar to that in Finland by the end of May.

But in Sweden things are more complicated than in Finland.

The governing Social Democrats last November clearly spoke out against membership.

A parliamentary election is also scheduled for September.

Nevertheless, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson's party announced on Monday that it would now initiate an internal "security policy dialogue" in order to adapt its own analyzes to the new situation after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The NATO question will be part of it.

NATO expansion: The doors of the defense alliance are wide open for Finland and Sweden

Finland and Sweden expect open doors at NATO.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg assured both countries that they were welcome in the alliance.

Numerous member states such as the USA, Germany, Great Britain, France and Turkey expressed their support.

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