Germany would plunge into recession in 2023 in the event of an immediate halt to Russian gas supplies decided in the wake of the war in Ukraine, the main German economic forecasting institutes said on Wednesday.
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In 2023, the Gross Domestic Product of Europe's leading economy would fall by 2.2% if gas supplies, on which Germany is particularly dependent, were to stop, say these six influential organizations (DIW, IFO, IfW, IWH and RWI).
The cumulative loss of GDP over 2022 and 2023 would amount to around 220 billion euros, they specify.
"
If the gas supply is cut off, the German economy is threatened with a deep recession
," said Stefan Kooths, vice-president of the IfW, in a press release.
The fall in GDP would notably be 5% in the second quarter of 2023, before the economy recovers at the end of the year.
A possible embargo on Russian gas is the subject of heated discussions among EU member states, with Berlin being one of the main opponents of an immediate halt to imports, believing that economic peace and social in the country.
The consequences of such a shutdown and Germany's ability to find alternative sources of energy in the short term are the subject of debate among economists.
Berlin multiplies the steps to find new suppliers
Berlin, which supplied more than 55% from Russia before the war, has already reduced this share to 40% and is stepping up its efforts to find other suppliers.
Germany does not plan to be able to do without Russian gas before mid-2024 and activated the first level of its emergency plan at the end of March to guarantee the supply of natural gas in the face of the threat of a stoppage of Russian deliveries. .
The institutes generally note that the German economy “is
going through difficult waters
” at a time when the lifting of restrictions linked to the pandemic could give a boost to activity.
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Supply chains “
are still under strain
” as new restrictions hit China in particular, and the “
shockwaves
” of the war in Ukraine “
are having a negative impact on the economy, both on the supply side than demand
,” they point out.
The consequences of the war in Ukraine are leading these six institutes to cut back on their growth forecast for 2022, now expected at 2.7%, against an estimate of 4.8% in October.
This is also reflected in an expected inflation rate of 6.1% this year, and even 7.3% in the event of a stoppage of gas deliveries, i.e. "
the highest value since the founding of the Federal Republic
".
In 2023, the rate would still be 5.0% without deliveries and 2.8% if they are maintained.