Sun is more active than predicted - Solar storms can threaten Earth

Created: 04/13/2022, 10:30 am

By: Tanya Banner

The activity of the sun is increasing faster than expected, the sun throws plasma into space.

What can threaten the earth from such a solar storm.

Munich – All hell is breaking loose on the sun – literally: the visible surface of the sun is seething, solar flares and so-called coronal mass ejections occur.

The sun throws plasma into space.

This plasma consists of charged particles that move through space at unimaginable speeds - several million kilometers per hour are possible.

When these particles hit the earth's magnetic field, a spectacle worth seeing is created at the poles: polar lights dance in the sky.

But a solar storm also has a negative – even dangerous – side: If a strong solar storm hits the earth at particularly high speed, this can cause problems with the power grid, among other things.

And the effects are not only felt on Earth: A solar storm can also affect satellites – just in February, 40 SpaceX satellites crashed shortly after launch because they were caught in a solar storm.

Solar storms occur when the sun becomes more active

The activity of the sun changes in an 11-year rhythm, which can be easily recognized by the number of sunspots.

The current sunspot cycle began in 2019, and its maximum is expected between 2024 and 2026.

And that could be higher than previously thought.

The Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, operated by the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA and the US space agency Nasa, shows that the sun is currently significantly more active than predicted.

For example, 29 sunspots were expected for the month of January 2022 - but 54 were actually counted. A similar picture can be seen in February and March 2022. The solar radio flux index - a value that measures the radio emission of the sun - is also well above the expected values.

The sun is currently more active than expected.

Eruptions on the surface hurl plasma into space, which can hit Earth in the form of a solar storm.

(Archive image) © NASA/SDO/AIA/Goddard Space Flight Center

A look into the past shows what can happen on Earth if it is hit by a massive solar storm.

In 1859, the largest solar storm scientifically observed to date hit Earth, known today as the Carrington event.

The result: Northern lights, which are usually seen near the North Pole, could be seen far to the south - Rome and Hawaii are called.

Electricity was not yet widespread at the time, which is why the telegraph network was primarily affected by the solar storm: telegraph lines sparked and set paper on fire, it is reported from 1859.

In addition, it was sometimes possible to operate the devices without batteries.

Solar storm can have catastrophic effects on Earth

In today's highly technological and electrified world, a strong solar storm could have catastrophic effects.

In the worst case, solar storms "on Earth and in near-Earth space could lead to significant disruptions and even the failure of critical infrastructure," explains astrophysicist Volker Bothmer, who researches at the Institute for Astrophysics at the University of Göttingen, to fr.de *.

Communication and navigation systems, power grids, oil pipelines, electronic systems of space probes and the associated structures such as global networking through the Internet or the drinking water supply are particularly affected.

But the expert also sees problems beyond Earth: astronauts and flight personnel are exposed to increased radiation.

And satellites are also often affected, as Bothmer reports: In 1989, during a solar storm, contact was briefly lost with over 1000 satellites.

When you consider how commonplace the use of satellite services has become – satellite navigation, communications and weather forecasting are just a few of them – you can imagine the problems a solar storm could cause.

A study from 2013 shows the effects that the Carrington event would have on Earth today: In the USA, 20 to 40 million people are likely to be without electricity for up to two years, the economic costs in the USA alone are said to be up to to $2.6 trillion, according to the study authors.

Strong solar storm: Earth narrowly escaped catastrophe in 2012

In fact, the Earth narrowly escaped such a catastrophe a few years ago: In July 2012, a geomagnetic storm the size of the Carrington event narrowly missed the Earth, as NASA announced in 2014.

The physicist Pete Riley stated at the time that it was not at all unlikely that the Earth would be hit by a Carrington-magnitude solar storm within the next ten years.

According to his analysis, the probability is up to twelve percent.

"Extreme events, such as the Carrington storm in 1859, occur about once every 100 to 150 years, based on our data analysis," explains Bothmer.

According to the astrophysicist, there are more than 1,000 solar storms in an 11-year solar cycle, about 50 of which reach speeds "resulting in very strong effects on Earth."

However, many of these solar storms would not reach the earth or would not have the special magnetic field properties "to properly disturb the earth's magnetic field," the scientist cautiously gives the all-clear.

Protection against strong solar storms - warning time is at least 12 hours

Nevertheless, the question arises as to whether and how vulnerable infrastructure on earth can be protected from solar storms.

To a certain extent, this is possible - for example, electronic parts in satellites can be shielded from radiation, and work is also being done on materials that are more resistant to radiation, as aerospace engineer Piyush Mehta explains in an article on The Conversation portal.

The activities of the sun can be observed with the help of special telescopes.

From a coronal mass ejection to the arrival of the solar storm on earth, it takes at least 12 hours, depending on the speed, and at most a few days.

During this time, you can do a lot on earth to protect the infrastructure: satellites can be put into a safe mode, airplanes can remain on the ground.

Communication and navigation errors can be corrected, and power grids could be controlled accordingly, Bothmer suggests.

Research is currently working on refining the prediction of solar storms, at the same time there are several space missions exploring the sun to better understand it.

Several space weather observation missions are also planned for the future.

Piyush Mehta, meanwhile, likens the sun to a “kid who often throws tantrums.

She is important for life to go on, but her constantly changing condition makes things difficult.” (Tanja Banner)