2012, between-two-rounds.
Two visions clash.
Two parties, too.
On one side, the Socialist Party, represented by François Hollande.
On the other, the UMP - ancestor of the Republicans -, embodied by Nicolas Sarkozy.
Between them, they account for 55.8% of the votes.
They tear each other apart, confront each other, before one gives way to the other, once again, as they have already been doing for thirty years.
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It is hard to believe, ten years later, that neither of these two political forces is in the front runners of this first round.
Worse, neither of these two formerly structuring forces is eligible for reimbursement of campaign expenses, set at the threshold of 5% of the vote.
“A very personal and concentrated power”
Already the 2017 election had foreshadowed the beginning of the end, with François Fillon becoming the third man (20.01%) and Benoît Hamon recording the lowest score of the rose party (6.36%).
Five years later, the report is bitter: political line often pointed out, disappearance of the militants, label of government party, but which chains the defeats… A mandate will not have been enough for them to rebuild and regain the confidence of the French.
“
No one thinks that the Socialist Party is capable of winning an election
anymore,” breathes an elected official on the same side.
Today, it is as if competence no longer counted.
It is assumed that all are as incompetent as each other, so those who have never exercised have an increasingly important asset
Chloé Morin, political scientist associated with the Jean-Jaurès Foundation
The situation is, however, paradoxical.
At the local level, the domination of the Socialists and the Republicans remains undeniable.
During the last elections, all or almost all were largely renewed in their communes, departments and regions.
Conversely, the three blocks that came out on top, La France insoumise, La République en Marche and the National Rally, are struggling to establish their territorial network.
Whatever.
This election confirms it: local roots are no longer a guarantee of quality for a candidate running for the highest national office.
“Today, it is as if skill no longer counted.
We start from the principle that all are as incompetent as each other, so those who have never exercised have an increasingly important asset, ”
analyzes Chloé Morin, political scientist associated with the Jean Jaurès Foundation.
We no longer see any use in parties, because we no longer identify with political representation, but with champions.
And, the form of membership is the vote
Dominique Reynié, CEO of Fondapol
Instead, voters seem more drawn to embodiment, favoring candidates with the most vision and the ability to carry the crowd with them.
“
We no longer see any use in parties, because we no longer identify with political representation, but with champions.
And, the form of membership is the vote,”
confirms Dominique Reynié, general manager of Fondapol.
Enough to make the traditional parties suffer from the logic of the useful vote, now largely on the side of Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Emmanuel Macron.
What, also, to raise a risk: that of an ephemeral membership which lasts only the time of a campaign, and does not install anything in the long term, thus leading to an extreme volatility of the electorate.
Where a party has at least for him to forge a base of values, supposed to endure and serve as benchmarks for those who refer to it.
"It's worrying for the future, because it leads to a very personal and concentrated power, and to increasingly sectarian parties since no one wants to get involved,"
adds Chloé Morin.
Fireproof
The challenge, for the new forces having supplanted the old ones, therefore lies partly there.
In the creation of something capable of surviving the disappearance of the person who embodies it.
After Jean-Luc Mélenchon, what will remain of the Insoumis?
After Emmanuel Macron, what will remain of Macronism?
“
The president embodies a current of social-democratic thought.
You have to bring it to life, embody it and theorize it so that it survives it
”, thus defends the Walker of the first hour Sacha Houlié, who believes that there is still
“a lot to do”.
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The next polls will also be watched closely.
The legislative ones, first, which will perhaps allow LFI or the RN to structure themselves and establish themselves more.
The local elections, then, which will serve as a trial by fire for LR and the PS.
Without a health crisis and an outgoing bonus, will they keep the anchoring that still makes them specific?
If this were not the case, then these traditional parties could really disappear.