D-10 before the second round of the presidential election, and all the experts agree that the outcome of the ballot is uncertain.
Emmanuel Macron, however, seems to have a head start, according to our daily Ipsos Sopra Steria poll for Le Parisien, Radio France and France Télévisions, dated Thursday April 14.
Slight advance.
Like Wednesday, Emmanuel Macron collects 55% of voting intentions, against 45% for Marine Le Pen.
Each time, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 points.
The gap between the two candidates had gradually narrowed before the first round, until it reached 6 points.
It therefore seems to be increasing again, while remaining much lower than that which finally occurred in 2017. Emmanuel Macron won with 66.1% of the votes cast, against 33.9% for the RN candidate.
Reports of votes rather to the advantage of Macron?
If Marine Le Pen wants to hope to catch up in our poll, she must benefit from more favorable vote reports.
18% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon's voters in the first round intend to vote for her in the second, like Wednesday.
This is also the case for 16% of respondents who voted for Valérie Pécresse, against 25% a day earlier.
Since the numbers are often quite small, it will be necessary to monitor these trends over several consecutive days.
Macron big favourite.
60% of French respondents believe that Emmanuel Macron will be re-elected, against only 18% who predict a victory for Marine Le Pen.
Even within the electorate of the RN candidate in the second round, a third of voters believe that she will be beaten.
Conversely, among those polled who intend to vote Macron on Sunday April 24, none are betting on a defeat.
Methodology: survey carried out online over the last three days, on a sample of more than 1,500 people questioned by Internet.
The results presented show the accumulation of the interviews carried out over the last three days.
This barometer is a day-to-day monitoring of voting intentions and opinion.
Quota method.
Source: Ipsos-Sopra Steria for Le Parisien-Aujourd'hui en France and Franceinfo.
