The calm after the bang: What will become of Scholz's turning point?

Created: 04/14/2022Updated: 04/14/2022 18:27

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) takes part in the cabinet meeting in the Chancellery.

© John Macdougall/AFP/POOL/dpa

It was an unprecedented breaking of a taboo: Germany is supplying weapons to a war against a nuclear power.

Chancellor Scholz has earned a lot of international respect for this.

But what happened next disappointed many.

Berlin – The surprise was great, as was the jubilation – internationally.

For his turning point speech three days after the start of the Ukraine war, Chancellor Olaf Scholz was not only celebrated at home, but also by the European allies.

Deliveries of arms to an ongoing war, massive rearmament of the Bundeswehr with assets worth 100 billion, a reversal in energy policy: after less than three months in office, Scholz catapulted himself to the top of the supporters for Ukraine.

Leadership instead of restraint.

determination instead of despondency.

Those were the messages.

But what happened to it seven weeks later?

The jubilation has died down, expectations of Germany have grown.

And the chancellor is struggling to fulfill his self-chosen leadership role in Europe.

He has long been confronted again with growing resentment from Eastern Europe.

Germany "difficult to read and not very trustworthy"

"The time when Chancellor Olaf Scholz could have become the real leader of Europe has long since passed," writes the liberal Czech newspaper Hospodarske noviny, for example.

“On security issues, Berlin is just as elusive and untrustworthy a partner for its allies today as it was before the Russian invasion began on February 24.

The promised turning point has turned into a missed historic opportunity.”

Poland's Deputy Foreign Minister Piotr Wawrzyk said on Polish public radio on Thursday that Germany is the country in the EU "that makes waging the war in Ukraine the most difficult".

He accuses the German government of blocking energy imports from Russia and hesitancy in arms deliveries to Ukraine.

"Germany is definitely doing too little to help Ukraine," he says.

Borrell: Sanctions will not decide the battle

The arms delivery has long since become the focus of discussions about Western aid to Ukraine.

The reason: the expected major Russian offensive in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass, for which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj is calling for heavy weapons.

These are, for example, battle tanks, artillery pieces, combat aircraft or warships.

The EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell brought back the clear message from his trip to Ukraine a week ago: "Sanctions are important, but sanctions will not solve the problem of the battle in Donbass."

Scholz: "We will not go it alone"

So far, as far as is known, Germany has mainly sent Panzerfausts, machine guns and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.

"We deliver, we have delivered and we will deliver," says Scholz.

When asked about heavy weapons, however, he always reacts evasively.

He says neither yes nor no to this, but sentences like: “We coordinate everything we do closely with all allies.” And: “We will not go it alone.

Germany will act no differently than other countries.”

The problem is that it is no longer entirely clear what NATO's common line actually is.

There are reports that individual countries are already supplying heavy weapons to Ukraine.

The Czech Republic is said to have launched several dozen Soviet-designed T-72 tanks and BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles.

Poland and Slovakia have agreed in principle to deliver Soviet-designed fighter jets to Ukraine, which has so far been rejected by Germany and the USA.

Hofreiter: "The problem is in the Chancellery"

Scholz is not only under pressure from Ukraine and eastern allies, but also from his own coalition.

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) recently called for the delivery of heavy weapons.

FDP General Secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai promptly agreed: "I very much hope that Ms. Baerbock's demand will not be in the sand of German responsibilities, but that the device will now be made available to the Ukrainian army quickly and easily."

more on the subject

Baerbock shows readiness for further delivery of weapons

Germany delivers tanks to Ukraine – but they have to be assembled beforehand

Hofreiter on Ukraine policy: The problem is in the Chancellery

Politicians from both coalition partners are now attacking Scholz directly.

"The problem is in the chancellery," says Anton Hofreiter, chairman of the Bundestag's Europe Committee.

"We must now finally start providing Ukraine with what it needs, and that includes heavy weapons."

Strack-Zimmermann: Scholz "now has to clearly say what he wants"

The chair of the defense committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, even openly attests to Scholz's weakness in leadership.

“He has the authority to set guidelines.

He must now state clearly what he wants.

And then the ministries can also act loyally in a coordinated manner in the cabinet.

Now everyone does their own thing.

And of course that's not possible," says the FDP politician.

The weapon issue is growing into a tangible coalition dispute.

SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich spoke up angrily: “There are no easy answers, even when it comes to the delivery of heavy war equipment to Ukraine.

Anyone who claims that is acting irresponsibly.” The main argument of opponents of a delivery of heavy weapons is that NATO and Germany could be viewed by Russia as warring parties and the conflict then spread to NATO.

SPD also internally divided

But the SPD is also divided internally.

While politicians on the left wing of the party are clearly opposed to the delivery of heavy weapons, the chairman of the foreign affairs committee, Michael Roth, is stepping up the pace.

“We need pragmatic solutions, which of course we also coordinate with our partners.

But we mustn't give the impression that we're harboring concerns, that we're dismissive," he says.

Roth was in the Ukraine on Tuesday with Hofreiter and Strack-Zimmermann to get an idea of ​​the situation.

They brought back a clear message from their journey - pro arms shipments.

Mützenich has no understanding for this: "It can be right to get an idea of ​​​​it on site.

However, under this impression, it is wrong to demand unprecedented decisions without having to answer for them yourself - especially since these could have far-reaching consequences for the security of our country and NATO