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(CNN) ––
Across China, cities have confined their residents, supply lines have been disrupted, and officials are scrambling to secure the transportation of basic goods.
All while the largest outbreak of covid-19 ever recorded threatens to escalate into a national crisis that the government itself concocted.
At least 44 cities in China are under full or partial lockdowns as authorities persist in trying to curb the spread of the highly transmissible omicron variant, according to a report by investment bank Nomura and CNN's own reporting as of Thursday. .
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Shanghai is now the epicenter of the latest outbreak in the country.
Scenes that were previously unimaginable for the hypermodern financial capital have become part of the daily struggle of 25 million people.
There, residents who have been banned from leaving the confines of their apartments or housing blocks for weeks are desperate for food and freedom.
Some even appear in social media videos screaming in frustration through their windows or confronting workers dressed in hazmat suits.
Even after the publication of a tentative plan this Monday to partially ease the measures, it seems that there is no end in sight.
This situation may be the most important challenge for the country ––and possibly for its leader Xi Jinping–– since the initial outbreak of covid-19 in Wuhan more than two years ago.
And for Xi, it comes at an especially sensitive time: just months before he takes his long-awaited step toward a virtually unprecedented third term at the Party Congress this fall.
An event that takes place just twice a decade.
They fear more protests over food shortages and lockdowns in China 0:59
The stakes are high for Xi as leader -- China's most powerful in decades -- as he has firmly put his personal stamp on the "zero covid-19" goal.
An initiative that drives these inflexible measures, where even a small number of cases can trigger sweeping disease controls.
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"We need to overcome risk paralysis, war-weariness, leave things to chance and relax," Xi said on Wednesday, state media quoted him as saying.
And they reported that the president asked the nation to "strictly implement standardized prevention and control measures."
OPINION |
We are confined in Shanghai with 11 kilos of mangoes and some very supportive neighbors
In China, local officials who implement measures against covid-19, such as those in Shanghai, are usually held responsible for mismanagement when there are problems.
Precisely, a more acceptable target than the central government and its policies, in the tightly controlled political environment of the country.
Nor is a Covid-19 crisis expected to jeopardize Xi's likely third term.
But as the outbreak enters a critical phase -- with some cities already in lockdown for weeks and a top health official warning Tuesday that the Shanghai outbreak had "not been effectively contained" -- the ruling Communist Party of China and its leader will have to deal with the economic consequences.
As well as with the growing possibility that, like the virus, the anger against the government that has been seen in Shanghai will spread.
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Xi ordered local officials to do their best to stop the virus, while simultaneously minimizing the "impact on economic and social development."
An order that, counterintuitively, is expected to push local authorities to take drastic measures at the sign of a few cases, or even preventively.
All as a result of the crisis in Shanghai.
"Shanghai officials were trying to balance these two things that were asked of them, which is 'let's maintain zero-Covid-19 levels, without disrupting anyone's life.' They focused a little more on the 'do not disrupt life' side. people's lives.' And they failed," said Trey McArver, partner and co-founder of the China policy research group Trivium.
“The lesson that everyone is going to learn is that you actually have to really focus on the zero covid-19 part,” he continued.
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As of Tuesday, health authorities indicated that more than 320,000 local cases of covid-19 had been reported in 31 provinces, including Shanghai, since March 1.
A medical worker examines a resident for COVID-19 in front of a Communist Party of China flag on April 12, 2022, in Zhenjiang city, Jiangsu province.
There are already dozens of cities in some form of lockdown, even though the vast majority of those total cases have been found in Shanghai and the northeastern province of Jilin.
Moving supplies across the country has become a major challenge, with some highways closed and truckers stuck in quarantine or at thousands of roadside security checkpoints.
Some cities have discouraged their residents from leaving, such as the main southern port of Guangzhou, which requires its 18 million residents to have a negative Covid-19 test if they want to leave.
"You could basically say the whole country is now like a lot of separate islands," said Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Pressure mounts in Shanghai, a city of 25 million, as covid-19 lockdowns remain in place
The situation has prompted various ministries in Beijing to take action.
An official from the National Development and Reform Commission even pledged Tuesday to "actively coordinate with local governments" and "use data information" to ensure essential items are delivered.
Meanwhile, health officials and state media have stepped up public messaging about why China should stick to the policy.
In that sense, they cite the risks, especially for its large elderly and undervaccinated population, of a widespread outbreak in the country of 1.4 billion people.
Those health problems come along with a "hidden" political calculation of the costs of a large-scale outbreak, according to Huang.
"(Beijing) is assessing the perceived impact on political and social economic stability, assessing the impact on the leadership transition ahead of the Party Congress, and considering the legitimacy of the regime. The stakes are high," Huang said.
China's zero covid-19 policy causes chaos in Shanghai 4:21
But the risks facing the Communist Party in maintaining this policy, which has sparked growing frustration and anger in Shanghai and threatens further disruption, are also clear.
Especially since the country has more than 88% of its population vaccinated and most cases, authorities say, remain mild.
"The economic slowdown is a big concern," said Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.
ANALYSIS |
The chaotic confinement in Shanghai by covid-19 leaves other cities in China in suspense
"The central government always uses so-called economic performance to enhance its legitimacy. So how are they going to (explain) slow economic performance? I don't know. But one thing is for sure, people will suffer."
the blame game
With Xi's name so closely associated with policy, the leader has been linked to the success of those measures.
“When you have power so clearly centralized in the hands of one person, then I think you can plausibly put any problem at that person's feet.
So it obviously reflects badly on him," McArver said.
Workers in personal protective equipment transfer daily supplies of food and essential items to local residents during the covid-19 lockdown in Shanghai.
But as to whether this would jeopardize the leader's third term, "the answer is no," he said.
And he took aim at what observers of China's opaque political elite believe is a vacuum of real competition for the top job.
In the meantime, it is possible that even from the depths of the current challenge -- if they can find a way to largely control the outbreaks -- the central government could win a political victory, similar to what they did in Wuhan in 2020, experts say. analysts.
At the time there was significant anger against the government, for example, following the death of whistleblower doctor Li Wenliang.
But the Communist Party of China emerged from the crisis to paint its strict strategy of control as an example of the superiority of its government.
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This time there is clear frustration with the government, which spilled over onto social media this week as users en masse adopted pro-China hashtags to make veiled or sarcastic anti-government comments, before they were censored.
But there are also scapegoats set up across the country in the form of local government officials, who are under enormous pressure and can be blamed for failures to implement the "zero covid-19" policy, shifting responsibility away from the central government policy itself, experts warn.
Many delegates have been fired or demoted during the pandemic, including recently in Shanghai, with details routinely reported by state media.
"The Chinese central government is very, very careful and also very, very smart in taking the anger out on local governments instead of themselves," Wu said.
Confinement measures tighten in China due to covid-19 0:44
And in a political environment where all dissent is quashed, it will dominate Xi's party narrative.
However, some argue that China has cornered itself in a place where it now needs to maintain its strict policy, after reveling for two years in the success of "zero covid-19", while sowing fearmongering about the virus and generating broad support for it. politics.
Huang puts it this way: "We should never underestimate the government's ability to reshape its narrative in order to maintain public support. And we should never underestimate people's tolerance, even for policies that harm their interests."
CNN's Beijing bureau contributed to this report.
Covid-19crisisEconomyXi Jinping