This is how the airline industry will suffer from the war in Ukraine 1:20
(CNN) --
It's about time!
Travel restrictions are easing, infection rates are leveling off, you're fully vaccinated, and you're finally thinking about going on vacation.
This is the year to make up for the vacations you missed in the last two years.
Surely you have saved for two years to make them good.
At last the time has come.
Or not?
While you may have everything in order, the same cannot be said for the entire travel industry.
Not only are there ever-changing rules about testing, vaccinations, and quarantines that need to be adhered to when traveling, but once the issue has been resolved, getting to your destination seems to be fraught with difficulties.
At the top of the chaos board?
The aviation.
The sector was, of course, decimated by the pandemic, but many airlines and airports currently seem unable to cope with the resurgence of travel.
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Countries on both sides of the Atlantic are seeing a slew of canceled flights due to crew shortages, long queues at airports due to understaffing, and the kind of rental car fees that make buying a vehicle seem cheap.
That's partly because everyone has the same idea as you: Just this week, Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian announced that March 2022 had been the company's best sales month in his story.
Faced with unprecedented demand, the much-reduced industry is struggling to cope.
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In the US, things have been brewing for the past year as domestic travel has taken off again.
Meanwhile, in the UK, chaos at major airports has been in the news every day for the past two weeks, with the national airline, British Airways, reported to the industry regulator for possible breaches of the law. .
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The flying experience may be smoother elsewhere in Europe, but car rental is not.
A bubble car can cost more than a hotel, and that's before taking into account rising gas prices.
Are you traveling in the United States?
Carmageddon is hitting just as hard.
Welcome to a summer of chaos?
Hopefully not, but industry figures fear so.
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a summer of chaos
Endless queues at Frankfurt airport.
Boris Roessler/picture alliance/Getty Images
"I think it's a preview of things to come and I think things are going to get worse," says consumer advocate Christopher Elliott, who has been following the situation in the United States and Europe.
"Summer will be chaos," he believes, to the point of advising his followers to avoid Europe in August, the height of the high season.
That aerial chaos?
He blames it directly on the airlines.
"I think we've seen some delays related to the pandemic, but I think at this point they're already factored into the equation, I don't think that's a legitimate excuse," he says.
"It's everyone's fault but theirs. If they looked in the mirror, they would realize that during the pandemic they downsized and laid off staff, and now the demand has surged again and caught them off guard. They haven't been able to staff fast enough to meet demand.
Ryanair and British Airways could be sued for refusing refunds
Elliott, founder of the nonprofit organization Elliott Advocacy, also has no time for the oft-cited "glitches."
"Airlines in the United States run outdated systems that are in desperate need of an update. They haven't been updated like they should. When they go down, they cause massive cancellations," he says.
Across the pond, technical problems - blamed for mass cancellations in the US since last year - have also hit British Airways, the UK's flag carrier.
On February 26, a "systems outage" forced the airline to suspend all short-haul flights.
It was the second computer failure in 10 days and followed similar problems in 2017 and 2018.
But that was the least of the UK's problems.
Since then, hundreds of thousands of travelers have seen their flights delayed, cancelled, or simply missed thanks to the chaos at some of the UK's major airports.
Pilots' strike forces British Airways to cancel almost all flights 0:31
Heathrow and Manchester airports have rarely been out of the news since late March, as severe staff shortages have led to hours-long queues at check-in, security and passport control.
And the lack of staff also means that people are waiting hours for their luggage to arrive.
Anarchy (aerial) in the United Kingdom
British Airways' hub at Heathrow Terminal 5 has been particularly hard hit.
Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg/Getty Images
Photos of queues and piles of luggage - often abandoned, after customers tired of waiting for hours - have dominated the British press.
And the chaos only gets worse.
Stansted Airport, the hub of low-cost airline Ryanair on the outskirts of London, on Thursday advised passengers traveling for the Easter holidays to leave their luggage 24 hours before their flight.
Ryanair, at least, is not canceling flights.
The two airlines that are doing that in the UK are EasyJet and British Airways.
Both have suffered unprecedented staff shortages since the end of the month, leading to dozens of flight cancellations each day.
It may be a coincidence that both dropped mask requirements on board in mid-March.
Enrico Ferro, from Padua, Italy, flew to London with British Airways for a four-day holiday with his wife and son on March 30.
Upon his arrival, they spent three hours waiting for his luggage to arrive at Heathrow.
"We spent the first day of our vacation at the airport," he tells CNN.
Things got worse on the way back.
Their flight back to Venice was canceled when they were already at the gate.
They ended up on a flight to Bologna, which arrived at midnight.
Ferro's father had to pick up his car at the Venice airport and drive two hours to pick them up and take them home at dawn.
Ferro claims that BA staff never informed him that he was due compensation.
He says that he will "never" fly with the airline again.
Who to blame for the chaos of airline cancellations
"I chose BA over low-cost carriers because I was sure the services for travelers were better," he says.
"I've discovered that it's not like that anymore."
On April 14, the British consumer organization Which?
wrote to the Civil Aviation Authority, saying it had evidence from customers that BA was not informing them of their rights in terms of flight cancellations and delays.
Rory Boland, editor of Which?
Travel, said in a statement: "Our investigation found that British Airways failed to inform passengers of their right to compensation and left families in great distress by failing to redirect them."
British Airways did not respond to a CNN request for comment, but told Which?
Travel in a statement: "We always comply with our legal obligations."
Boland told CNN that the current chaos in the UK is, in his opinion, "worse than in many other countries."
The lack of staff has led to scenes like this in the UK, where an easyJet check-in agent is on call as thousands of passengers queue in Manchester.
Ryan Jenkinson/Story Picture Agency/Shutterstock
"There is a long-term problem around staff employment and that is difficult to overcome, especially for travel companies that pay low wages."
"I have been in contact with some aviation workers who were laid off during the pandemic. They have been offered to come back with worse pay and worse conditions, and they say: 'I don't want to, I have a better job.' airlines increase their offer, it will take a long time to increase the workforce".
Brexit is, of course, a famously divisive issue in the UK and many of those who oppose it attribute the country's current problems to the UK's exit from the EU.
But when it comes to the current airport chaos, there is a tangible link, says Kully Sandhu, managing director of the Aviation Recruitment Network, which staffs the sector in the UK.
"We used to get 50-60% of our applications from EU citizens for our positions at London Airport," he says.
"Not having this European workforce has not only caused recruitment problems, it also means that airports have fewer employees who can speak a European language. This was a major benefit and not having that facility can impact the time it takes passengers passing through an airport".
Sandhu also blames travel restrictions, which have led employers to use staff "when needed" instead of giving them regular work, causing more and more people to leave the sector.
In a nutshell?
"Airport staff have found more stable and financially lucrative opportunities and have decided not to return to work in such a volatile market," she says.
Sandhu predicts it will take "up to 12 months" for airport staffing levels to return to pre-pandemic levels in the UK.
For her part, Lucy Moreton, general secretary of the Immigration Services Union (ISU), told the BBC that the Border Force - which controls people entering the UK - is "catastrophically understaffed".
The government has blamed the problems on the increase in travelers during Holy Week.
With reports of physical fights, passengers passing out in queues and thousands of travelers seeing their flights canceled every day, many will decide to freeze that post-pandemic trip to London.
How the war in Ukraine could harm the recovery of tourism
Meanwhile, in the United States
Spirit and JetBlue were hit hard last week.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
Not everyone is so depressed.
Keep perspective, says Courtney Miller, director of research for The Air Current.
For starters, he says, after two months of restrictions, "we can go flying."
But he admits that, especially in the US, the experience "sucks: it's more expensive, and it's more marked by the possibility of being delayed or cancelled."
The problem?
"Things are big - too big - and we're struggling to catch up."
Miller says the sudden spike in the US domestic market last summer saw demand hit 70% of pre-pandemic levels and airlines didn't have the infrastructure to respond.
"A number of airlines went under," he says, adding that more than 5,000 pilots left (or were asked to leave) the industry in 2020, and the new ones aren't coming in fast enough.
Although demand stagnated during the omicron outbreak, it is now back with a vengeance – around 90% of 2019 levels, he says – and airlines just can't keep up.
"We are seeing massive cancellations again and airlines are reducing schedules. Fares are through the roof and people like to talk about the price of oil, but that's not why. The problem is that there are more people who want to fly than seats" , it states.
Miller has more sympathy - or, perhaps, understanding - for airlines than most.
We have to realize the magnitude of what they have gone through, he says: "98% of his business has disintegrated."
By comparison, the much-touted devastation wrought on aviation by 9/11 shrank the industry by just 10%.
When an industry is bone-deep, he says, an unexpected problem -- like last weekend's Florida storms, in which JetBlue and Spirit grounded -- "really hits."
Spirit and Frontier Airlines join in what would be the fifth largest airline in the US.
US airlines are reducing their summer schedules - in other words, canceling flights - in an attempt to ameliorate the problem.
That is why Miller recommends reserving as soon as possible, to be already in the system if the cuts arrive.
"If they cancel my flight, they have to find me another one; if I wait, the risk is on me," he says.
"You just have to book now."
Not in America and feeling cocky?
Bad news: It says the US is a year ahead of other Western tourism sectors.
"We can look at Western economies and say we expect a similar magnitude going into the peak season," he says.
"European markets haven't gone through that extreme shortage yet, but this summer is going to be very, very revealing as passengers come back."
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