Russia threatens Sweden and Finland – local experts react coolly

Created: 04/17/2022, 04:49 am

By: Florian Naumann

Vladimir Putin in front of a Swedish flag in 2010 - the then Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt was visiting Moscow.

© IMAGO/ITAR-TASS

Sweden and Finland are considering joining NATO.

Does it bring greater (nuclear) danger or safety?

Experts react coolly to Kremlin threats.

Stockholm/Moscow – What danger does Russia pose?

And what is the best way to deal with it, with accommodation or confrontation*?

The western world is facing this question these days.

Finland and Sweden in particular: After decades of “non-alignment”, the two Scandinavian countries are toying with the idea of ​​joining NATO.

New threats are therefore coming from Russia.

However, Swedish military experts are reassuring – at least in part.

Russia threatens Finland: "Not even a mosquito would want to fly to our border"

In any case, the Kremlin warned Finland and Sweden* again of the “consequences” of a possible NATO membership.

Helsinki and Stockholm must "understand the consequences of such a step for our bilateral relations and for the European security architecture as a whole," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in Moscow on Friday.

Sweden and Finland's membership in NATO would "probably not contribute to strengthening (their) international standing," said the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman.

The two countries' non-aligned policies provide "a reliable level of security," while membership of a military alliance "is incapable of strengthening their national security."

Both countries would "automatically find themselves on the NATO front."

According to the broadcaster ITV News, a somewhat more defensive threat also came from the Duma, the Russian parliament.

Finland is "full of mosquitoes" and if the country joins NATO, Russia will "guarantee its security in such a way that not even a mosquito would want to fly to our border," reporter Emma Burrows quoted Deputy Speaker Piotr Tolstoy as saying.

Sweden and Finland in NATO?

Putin confidante threatens nuclear weapons - Finland remains firm

Former Russian President and current number two on the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, warned on Thursday that Russia would station nuclear weapons near the three Baltic states and Scandinavia if Finland or Sweden decide to join NATO.

"The balance must be restored".

Nevertheless, the Finnish Minister for European Affairs, Tytti Tuppurainen, said it was "very likely" that her country would join the western military alliance.

However, a final decision has not yet been made.

She pointed out that in surveys, the population's approval of NATO membership had risen to 60 to 70 percent.

For decades before the Russian military operation in Ukraine, it was only 20 to 25 percent*.

NATO accession: Swedish experts react coolly to threats - "They've been saying that for 20 years"

In the meantime, experts on the Swedish public broadcaster SVT tried to get a sober assessment of the situation.

"They've been saying that for 20 years," explained war researcher Thomas Ries, referring to Russian warnings about countermeasures, "that's nothing new, that's exactly the same wording as before."

It is impossible to predict Russia's specific behavior.

However, Ries expected that the concrete consequences from the Russian side would be limited.

As has presumably already happened, the Kremlin could send nuclear-armed planes to Sweden or allow ships to breach the water borders.

"But there's not much they can do concretely.

Russia is busy in Ukraine.

More serious is the danger that they will launch cyber attacks on the Swedish technical infrastructure.”

“Putin will certainly cough and puff a little and tease us a little.

(...) On the other hand, I don't think Russia comes here and kills people." 

Swedish defense expert Robert Dalsjö on Russia's reaction to NATO membership.

Jakob Westberg, Ries' colleague at the Swedish General Defense Command's Stockholm Academy, spoke of Russian "dread diplomacy" at SVT.

Just talking about the threats plays Russia into the cards - the country wants to worry Sweden and Finland and thus bring them into line with their own wishes.

Colleague Robert Dalsjö made a similar statement in the tabloid

.

"Putin will certainly cough and puff a little and give us a few taunts," he explained, "Move drones to other places, maybe there will be cyber attacks".

Dalsjö also expected "insults" such as a renewed intrusion of aircraft into Swedish airspace.

"On the other hand, I don't believe that Russia comes here and kills people." A Russia expert had

seen it differently in an interview with the

Sweden and Finland: Opinions on joining NATO are changing

Moscow's military action in Ukraine has resulted in a dramatic reversal in public and political opinion in both Finland and Sweden towards NATO membership.

The Swedish-language Finnish newspaper

recently quoted a survey according to which almost 85 percent of Finns perceive Russia as a military threat.

There, an expert also expressed a thesis on the sinking of the Russian flagship "Moskva".

So far, the countries have worked closely with the defense alliance, but are not members.

Sweden's politicians are currently discussing possible accession, while Finland wants to make an official decision on an application for NATO membership in the coming weeks.

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