Republicans react to Biden's new border policy 3:34
(CNN) --
There's not much President Joe Biden can do about it.
There is not much you can do to curb inflation.
There isn't much you can do to stop immigrants from reaching the southern border of the United States.
Either to reduce crime, or to get vaccine resisters to get vaccinated, which would hasten the end of the coronavirus pandemic.
There isn't much he can do to coerce turncoats within their slim Democratic majorities in Congress.
There is absolutely nothing he can do to coerce Republican opponents, who would rather aggravate than ease their burdens.
ANALYSIS |
Joe Biden's numbers are collapsing among a group you wouldn't expect
In other words, there is not much Biden can do about the heavier hitters depressing his political position, which has been stuck in the avalanche zone for months.
So his party faces the likelihood of a major electoral loss in November that hands the House and perhaps the Senate over to the Republican Party.
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Biden and his aides will spend the next seven months trying the same thing, using the White House pulpit, executive authority and international diplomacy.
The marginal benefits represent the best they can hope for.
It recalls the 1960s lament of a troubled President Lyndon B. Johnson, who complained that "the only power I have is nuclear, and I can't even use it."
That literally applies to Biden's predicament on Ukraine, where the risk of catastrophic escalation precludes direct intervention by the US military to stop Russian aggression.
Biden appreciates response to Brooklyn shooting 0:39
His frustrated fellow Democrats insist that the administration can enjoy better political health with a better "message."
That might sound persuasive if the president's party hadn't lost House seats in 26 of the last 29 midterm elections spanning more than a century.
Biden's four most recent predecessors, with varying communication acumen, all lost control of one or both houses of Congress in the midterm elections.
Opportunistic Republicans say that Biden needs to change ideological course.
They blame his policies — "radical," "far left," "socialist," or worse — for creating the conditions that turn voters against him.
Inflation is the strongest evidence.
Liberal and conservative economists share a growing consensus that Biden's $1.9 trillion American Bailout last year pumped too much money into the economy.
That money sped up the economic recovery and helped restore millions of jobs.
But by supercharging consumer demand, it also worsened inflationary pressures that were already building in the US and around the world as the economy emerged from the Covid-19 shutdowns.
However, the White House cannot fundamentally alter that reality now.
Efforts to smooth supply chains, use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to expand oil supplies, or waive air pollution regulations to produce more fuel with less gas may modestly offset rising prices.
Events abroad, from the new covid lockdowns in China to the evolution of the war, can sink them in an instant.
Outside voices, such as that of the eminent Democratic economist Larry Summers, prescribe more powerful options, such as lifting tariffs on Chinese imports, shelving "buy America" requirements that limit competition in government purchases, and expanding immigration to loosen a tense labor market.
Each of those options, however, carries toxic political side effects.
Other issues have made Biden a victim of circumstance, as presidents often are.
Illegal immigration — which has paralyzed Congress and plagued heads of government for decades — presents the quintessential no-win issue.
Even before he took office, Republicans blamed Biden for a "border crisis" over immigration flows that began to surge in 2020 under President Donald Trump.
To the extent that the new raises came about simply by swapping Trump's tough profile on immigrants for Biden's more sympathetic one, the incumbent can't change that.
ANALYSIS |
New York subway shooting shows Washington is failing to address America's mental health crisis
To the chagrin of his core supporters, Biden has only made incremental changes to immigration policy.
Now, as the administration prepares to lift Covid restrictions at the border that health conditions no longer warrant, electorally vulnerable Democrats have joined the right-wing heap.
The terrifying spike in murders also began in the pandemic year of 2020, before his presidency, for reasons criminologists will debate for decades.
The same thing happened with the increase in fentanyl deaths.
Washington's tougher gun regulations — like last week's "ghost gun" executive order, Biden's stand-in for congressional inaction — can't change much on American streets.
Neither can the president's rejection of "defunding" moves targeting local police departments, as New York Mayor Eric Adams's early struggles make clear.
Biden could get political help from others
Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia may finally cast the deciding vote on parts of the president's stalled economic agenda.
The Federal Reserve could raise interest rates skillfully enough to calm voters' inflation fears without precipitating a recession.
The Supreme Court, by ruling out the constitutional right to abortion, could set in motion the mobilization of Democratic voters.
An increasingly radical Republican Party could nominate ineligible candidates in crucial Senate races.
Biden: Law enforcement will go after “ghost weapons” 2:32
This fall's Democratic candidates could use campaign attacks to create the strong national contrast that presidents often use to recover from midterm setbacks in their own re-election years.
Trump's aberrant behavior, culminating in the deadly January 6 insurrection against American democracy, presents a unique political objective.
But history shows that presidents can rarely change the political climate in midterm elections.
Although the specific weather conditions change, the weather is almost always bad.
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell noted last week that the Democrat-controlled White House and Congress had hit a "perfect storm of trouble."
All available indicators indicate that he is right.
Biden
