Is Putin losing the Ukraine war because of the trucks?
US expert surprised after photo analysis
Created: 04/18/2022Updated: 04/18/2022 07:47
By: Bettina Menzel
A column of tanks with the Z symbol painted on it stretches into the distance as it heads north on the Mariupol-Donetsk highway.
A military expert is now commenting on the condition of the Russian trucks.
© picture alliance/dpa/SOPA Images via ZUMA Press Wire |
Maximilian Clarke
Military experts agree: From Putin's point of view, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is proceeding more slowly than planned.
A US expert analyzes images and reveals what trucks have to do with them.
Kyiv - On February 24, 2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine began.
Military experts quickly got the impression that the actually overpowering Russian troops in the Ukraine conflict were making slower progress than Vladimir Putin had planned.
The bitter resistance of Ukrainian troops and civilians is one of the reasons.
A US military expert now claims to have recognized another problem in Russian warfare on the basis of images and explains the role of Russian trucks.
Ukraine conflict: One factor has not been taken into account so far
When you think of war, images of rockets, tanks, fighter jets and soldiers come to mind - just like the suffering of the civilian population.
That's not wrong: The atrocities in the Ukrainian Bucha shocked the world.
Ukraine also recently reported that Russia is continuing to fly airstrikes on the port city of Mariupol.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy again called on the West to supply the necessary "heavy weapons" in view of the "inhumane situation" in Mariupol.
But a US military expert now wants to have recognized a factor that has so far been largely unconsidered: the trucks of the Russian troops, which have a significant influence on the logistics of warfare.
“Amateurs talk about strategy, professionals about logistics,” said US General Omar Bradley during World War II.
Ukraine conflict: This is the role Russian trucks play in logistics
The humble truck is more important in warfare than many realize, says Trent Telenko, a former quality inspector at the US Defense Contracts Agency.
Because armies need trucks to transport their soldiers to the front lines, to supply their tanks with shells and to get missiles to where they are needed.
In short, any army that neglects its trucks does so at its own peril, Telenko told
CNN
.
The expert analyzed numerous photos of the Ukraine war - including Russian trucks.
Photos of damaged Russian trucks show signs of Moscow's logistical problems, he says.
"Anything an army needs [...] comes from a truck," Telenko told
CNN
.
"The weapon isn't the tank itself, it's the shell that the tank fires.
This grenade will be transported by truck,” the expert emphasizes.
Food, fuel, medical supplies and even the soldiers all depend on trucks.
He has reason to believe that there is a problem with this supply in the Russian army, Telenko said.
Ukraine conflict: Multimillion dollar truck is 'canary in the coal mine'
Pantsir S-1 is one of the most modern Russian short-range anti-aircraft missile systems.
It is transported on a truck.
Image of a Pantsir S-1 from April 1, probably taken at a Russian Air Force airfield - without tire damage (symbolic image).
© RIA Novosti / SNA / Imago
A current photo is said to show tire damage on a multi-million dollar truck, a model Pantsir S1.
This describes Telenko as "the canary in the coal mine" in reference to Russia's wartime logistics.
With a device this expensive, he would have expected top-notch maintenance.
But the truck's tires would disintegrate just a few weeks after the start of the war.
The expert attributes this to poor maintenance: If trucks are not moved frequently, the rubber in their tires becomes brittle and they are prone to cracking.
According to Trent Telenko, the problem is also common when tires are run with low air pressure, for example, to deal with the muddy conditions faced by Russian forces during the Ukrainian spring.
For the US expert, the current photo of the Pantsir S1 is symbolic of the entire Russian truck fleet.
If the Russian troops "are not doing the maintenance for something that important, then it's very clear that the entire fleet of trucks was treated similarly," he told
CNN
.
Ukraine conflict: What speaks for Telenko's theory
At the beginning of the war there was an incident that could support Telenko's theory: a 60 km long convoy of Russian tanks, armored vehicles and artillery had stalled about 30 km outside of Kyiv.
At the time, the British Ministry of Defense cited the Ukrainian resistance as the reason, but there were also "mechanical breakdowns".
Phillips O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, says there is another sign of logistical problems in the Russian military: the use of civilian trucks to replace military trucks lost in combat.
"Commercial trucks [...] aren't made to carry these loads," O'Brien said -- and in many cases they couldn't even operate off-road.
Conscription and corruption Reason for the desolate condition of Russian trucks?
A lack of motivation and proper training could also be a reason for the Russian military's poor maintenance of military vehicles and logistical problems, experts suspect.
Around 25 percent of Russian soldiers are conscripts, according to data from the US think tank CSIS.
Accordingly, people who do not necessarily report for military service out of inner conviction.
Conscripts often hold low ranks and are also responsible for vehicle maintenance.
The Ukrainian side repeatedly emphasizes that the morale of the Russian soldiers is low.
Corruption in the Russian military could also be responsible for the poor condition of the trucks.
Bribery and kickbacks can lead to the purchase of inferior equipment, for example by subcontracting equipment or maintenance to a less qualified supplier who is willing to pay kickbacks, says Harvard Law School professor Matthew Stephenson.
Instead of high-quality parts, inferior spare parts could also be bought - the difference would then flow into the pockets of those responsible.
"All of these problems [...] seem to be manifested in the current Russian invasion," Stephenson wrote on his Global Anti-corruption blog.
That would support Telenko's theory.
Incidentally, the latter initially gave no information on the condition of the Ukrainian trucks.