Finland's ex-prime minister expects Russian revenge after NATO membership application - "We are well prepared"

Created: 04/19/2022Updated: 04/19/2022 8:34 PM

By: Christoph Gschossmann

Finland's former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb believes his country will soon join NATO - and is prepared for a Russian response.

© Kimmo Brandt

Will Russia's aggression in Ukraine lead to Finland joining NATO quickly?

The decision on this should be made soon.

Munich - Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine is causing fears in many neighboring countries: If Vladimir Putin's troops can invade here, what is stopping him from doing the same in other countries?

The final limit would probably be the NATO members, who could hope for support from the US-led alliance in the event of a Russian attack.

Finland probably wants to join soon - but the former prime minister of the Scandinavian country, Alexander Stubb, is already expecting retaliation from Moscow.

Russia had already indicated that it would see Finland's entry into NATO as a provocation.

The Kremlin has threatened "consequences" in this case.

Cyber ​​attacks as the most likely form of retaliation

The most likely form of retaliation would be cyberattacks.

But Stubb also said in an interview with

that his country was prepared.

Stubb doubts that Russia could attack Finland.

The reason is simple: Russia's military is "already weakening in Ukraine".

However, the ex-prime minister warned that nothing should be taken as an “empty threat” towards Vladimir Putin.

Stubb explained that due to the current crisis, NATO membership is closer than ever.

Stubb recalled how Putin had threatened NATO should Finland join: he had threatened "military-technical measures", i.e. a mixture of cyber and conventional military attacks.

A cyber attack recently paralyzed the websites of the Finnish foreign and defense ministries – of all things during a speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Finnish parliament.

However, it is not certain that Russia is behind this attack - even if a Russian state aircraft entered Finnish airspace on the same day.

"We expect such actions," said Stubb, "but we are well prepared." In relation to its size, the country has one of the largest military and "one of the strongest air forces in Europe."

In the event of a Finnish NATO application, Russia could respond immediately

In the event of an application, it could happen very quickly, Stubb suspects.

Russia could respond before Finland is officially in the alliance.

For this reason, Finland actively sought “implicit security guarantees from NATO member states” during this transition period, Stubb said: “I think that the government was quite successful in this – of course they are not allowed to say that publicly, but our president does not just fly a week after the war began in Washington, DC, just to have coffee with President Joe Biden.” Finnish President Sauli Niinistö met Biden in early March.

In Finland, for the first time, a majority of the population is in favor of joining NATO, and Prime Minister Sanna Marin declared on Wednesday that a decision would be made "within weeks, not within months".