The second stage in the war in Ukraine: Why does Putin want Donbas?

The Russian military has launched a new offensive against eastern Ukraine, focusing on the Donbas region - the industrial heart of the country.

In addition to exporting raw materials to Russia, the region also has significant strategic and symbolic importance

Tali Goldstein

19/04/2022

Tuesday, 19 April, 2022, 14:18 Updated: 14:24

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Russian separatists in Donetsk, 2014 (Photo: AP)

Russia launched today (Tuesday) an expected attack on eastern Ukraine as part of what Ukrainian officials call "the second phase of the war."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has confirmed to Indian television channel India Today that Moscow has embarked on a new phase of the "special operation in Ukraine".

Russian warfare is now focused on the Donbas industrial area - and especially on the two large districts of Luhansk and Donetsk, which stretch from Mariupol in the south to the northern border of Ukraine.

Russian forces have been in the east since 2014, when Ukraine began a war against Moscow-backed separatists in the region.

President Volodymyr Zlansky said today that "we will fight for every meter of our land."

Why is the region, known as the industrial heart of Ukraine, so important to Russia?

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The city of Karmina in Russian hands (Photo: Reuters, REUTERS / Serhii Nuzhnenko)

"In President Putin's eyes, the Russian-speaking region is more Russian than Ukrainian," Sam Karni-Evans of RUSI, a British institute specializing in security and intelligence research, told the BBC.

"The Soviet Union has developed Donbas as an industrial center," Markian "This was the place that determined the rate of industrialization of the Soviet Union," he added.

"The region was also very important symbolically.

"Donbas provided raw materials for the entire Soviet Union," Dobzinsky said, adding that despite this, the region suffered severe repression under the Soviet regime.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) with General Alexander Dobrnikov (Photo: Reuters, Sputnik / Alexey Nikolsky / Kremlin via REUTERS)

"New Russia"

Industrial production in the eastern region has in the last century attracted people from all over Eastern Europe to Donbas, which has cultivated close social and economic ties with Russia, but also with the rest of Ukraine that is not under Russian influence.

However, the fact that during the last millennium, Donbas was under Russian control - and did not change European hands like other regions in Ukraine, established it in the Russian perception as part of the "New Russia", a nickname given to Western regions where the Russian Empire once wanted to spread.

"Cities like Luhansk and Donetsk are historically places where Russians could see a certain version of Russia," Rory Pinin, an associate professor of Ukrainian studies at the University of Cambridge, told CNN.

Putin shares this view, according to experts.

The bombings in Luhansk (Photo: Reuters, REUTERS / Marko Djurica)

"Consolation prize"

More than a month after the start of the war, Russia claims to have taken control of 93% of the Luhansk region and 54% of Donetsk, however, Putin is still far from complete control of the entire region.

During the Russian invasion in February, about two-thirds of the eastern regions were in Ukrainian hands.

The rest were run by Russian affiliates, who created a sort of satellite state during the war that began in 2014 between Ukraine and the separatist regions.

Even before the invasion of Ukraine, Putin recognized the two eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent of Ukraine.

If Russia does conquer them, Putin will be able to record an important achievement in the "special military operation" he launched.

The next step will be to annex Donbas, as he did with the Crimean peninsula in 2014, following a dubious referendum.

If the occupation succeeds by May 9, it will even be able to celebrate the achievement on "Victory Day" in which Russia traditionally marks its victory over Nazi Germany in 1945.

The pro-Russian leaders in Luhansk have already discussed the possibility of holding a referendum on "the near future".

According to Samir Puri, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), "there is a high chance that Putin will try to cross Ukraine now; that will be enough for him to declare victory for his people and cancel the criticism that his invasion failed," he told CNN.

"The conquest of Donbas will be a condolence prize, because Kiev is already out of the grip of the Russian army," he added.

"The Battle of Donbas is a turning point in the war"

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kolba said this month that "the Battle of Donavas will remind the world of World War II, with major operations, maneuvers, thousands of tanks, armored vehicles, aircraft and ammunition."

According to Puri, "It will be completely different from what people saw in Kiev and Mariupol. The Ukrainian front is a combination of urban and rural areas, some of which were destroyed due to eight years of bombing."

Russia will probably try to encircle the Ukrainian forces in the east, and attack from the north, where it has concentrated forces in cities like Izumi, as well as from the south and east.

The expectation is that a battle for control of the eastern city of Slavyansk will begin, given its strategic importance as part of a possible Russian land corridor route.

The proximity to Russia and the Crimean peninsula will also ease supply issues that have contributed to the failure of the Russian military in central Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military believes Putin also wants to occupy the southern port city of Kherson, which is north of the Crimean peninsula.

Control of the Kherson will give Putin a land bridge along the southern coast and the Russian border and control of the water supply to the Crimean peninsula.

According to the Institute for War Studies (ISW), if Ukraine succeeds in holding on to Slavyansk, the Russian campaign aimed at taking control of the two eastern regions will "probably fail".

For this reason, the Ukrainian army is concentrating its counter-attacks in the region.

As Russian convoys make their way to the Donbas, they are likely to encounter Ukrainian forces well acquainted with the cities and towns in the east.

The military has had extensive experience in fighting in the region since 2014, and some Ukrainian officials said, "The Battle of Donbas is a turning point in the war."

"Militarily, it is more convenient for the Russian army to fight the Donbas than in Kiev, Sumy or Kharkov," Dobzensky said.

"But this is also where the most experienced and equipped brigades of the Ukrainian army are located ... the Russians will encounter the most fierce resistance."

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