The scenario promises to be unprecedented for decades.
If Emmanuel Macron is re-elected in the second round of the presidential election next Sunday, the most likely scenario according to the polls, he will immediately have a parliamentary majority and a government… in his own camp.
Jean Castex would however present his resignation as well as that of his team of ministers “in the days that follow”, he indicated this Tuesday morning on France Inter.
The Prime Minister sees in it a respect for a “republican tradition”.
"It is not written in any text but quite simply, when a new president is elected, it is traditional for the government to resign", abounds with the Parisian Vincent Martigny, professor of political science at the University of Nice and Polytechnique .
"New impetus"
This “courtesy resignation”, as it is also sometimes called, dates back “to the year 1879 following the election of Jules Grévy as President of the Republic”, reports the professor of public law Armel Le Divellec.
In recent decades, it intervened when François Mitterrand (in 1988) then Jacques Chirac (in 2002) were re-elected for a second consecutive term.
But France was, in these two cases, in a phase of cohabitation and the Prime Minister was on a political side opposed to that of the re-elected president.
It was therefore natural for the latter to name someone close to Matignon.
In this case, Michel Rocard then Jean-Pierre Raffarin took up their duties almost immediately after the second round.
This year 2022 therefore marks the first time, since the re-election of Charles de Gaulle in December 1965 with Georges Pompidou at Matignon, that a president would be re-elected with an allied Prime Minister… who still intends to resign.
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In addition to respecting a "tradition", Jean Castex also spoke of his desire to give a "new impetus" before the legislative elections, scheduled for June 12 and 19.
“It seems obvious, because we will be a completely new situation.
It would not be in the interest of the President of the Republic to act as if there had been no election and that the political landscape had not changed, ”judge Vincent Martigny.
Part of the left intends to block Marine Le Pen, and the final score with Emmanuel Macron should be much tighter than in 2017.
Suspended until the legislative
Proof that such a resignation from the government is not compulsory in the texts, Jean Castex hinted that he could remain in his post if the RN candidate was elected at the Elysee Palace on Sunday evening.
As for Emmanuel Macron, if he is reappointed to the Elysée for five years, he remains free to… rename all or part of the same ministerial team.
“I would be very surprised if he renamed everyone, when he would no doubt want to show that he heard the message from the ballot box,” said Vincent Martigny.
The new government will in any case only be on borrowed time, because another practice provides for a government to resign after the election of the deputies.
The extent of this future reshuffle and the continuation of this probable second Macron five-year term will depend a lot on the parliamentary majority coming out of the polls on the evening of June 19.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who came third in the first round of the presidential election, "asked the French people to elect Prime Minister" by giving the rebellious a majority in the National Assembly.