Military expert analyzes what kind of weapons the US sends to Ukraine 5:19
Washington (CNN) --
The United States has few ways to track the significant supply of anti-tank, anti-aircraft and other weapons it has shipped across the border with Ukraine, sources tell CNN, a blind spot largely due to Part to the lack of American boots on the ground in the country and the easy portability of many of the smaller systems now pouring across the border.
It is a conscious risk that the Biden administration is willing to take.
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In the short term, the US sees the transfer of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of equipment as vital to the Ukrainians' ability to contain the invasion of Moscow.
A senior defense official said Tuesday that it is "certainly the largest recent supply to a country associated with a conflict."
But the risk, both for current US officials and defense analysts, is that in the long term, some of those weapons may end up in the hands of other militaries and militias that the US had no intention of arming.
"We have fidelity for a short period of time, but when it goes into the fog of war, we have almost zero," said a knowledgeable US intelligence source.
"Fall into a big black hole, and you have almost no feeling after a short period of time."
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In making the decision to send billions of dollars worth of weapons and equipment to Ukraine, the Biden administration took into account the risk that some of the shipments could end up in unexpected places, a defense official said.
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But right now, the official said, the administration sees failure to properly arm Ukraine as a bigger risk.
Since the US military is not on the ground, the US and NATO rely heavily on information provided by the Ukrainian government.
Officials privately acknowledge that Ukraine has an incentive to give only information that strengthens its case for more aid, more weapons and more diplomatic assistance.
"It's a war: everything they do and say publicly is designed to help them win the war. Every public statement is an information operation, every interview, every Zelensky appearance is an information operation," said another source familiar with the matter. western intelligence.
"That doesn't mean they're wrong to do it in any way."
For months, US and Western officials have provided detailed accounts of what the West knows about the status of Russian forces inside Ukraine: how many casualties they have suffered, their remaining combat power, their weapons stockpiles, what types of munitions they are using and where.
But when it comes to Ukrainian forces, officials acknowledge that the West -- including the United States -- has some information gaps.
Western estimates of Ukrainian casualties are also confusing, according to two sources familiar with US and Western intelligence.
"It's hard to follow up if there's no one on the ground," said a source familiar with the intelligence.
Weapons to Ukraine, a question of visibility
The Biden administration and NATO countries say they are providing weapons to Ukraine based on what Ukrainian forces say they need, whether it's man-portable systems like the Javelin and Stinger missiles or the Slovakian S-300 air defense system that it was sent last week.
Javelin and Stinger missiles, as well as rifles and ammunition, are naturally harder to track than larger systems like the S-300, which shipped by rail.
Although the Javelines have serial numbers, there is little way to track their movement and use in real time, say sources familiar with the matter.
Why the Biden Administration Is Giving Ukraine New, Heavier Weapons
Last week, the United States agreed to provide Kyiv with the kind of high-powered capabilities that some Biden administration officials considered too great a risk of escalation just a few weeks ago, including 11 Mi-17 helicopters, 18 155mm Howitzer guns and 300 more Switchblade drones.
But much of that support has yet to kick in, and Switchblades are single-use mobile drones that are also likely to be difficult to track in hindsight.
"I couldn't tell you where they are in Ukraine and if the Ukrainians are using them right now," a senior defense official told reporters last week.
"They're not telling us every round of ammo they're firing and to whom and when. We may never know exactly to what extent they're using the Switchblades."
The Defense Department does not target the weapons it sends to specific units, according to Pentagon press secretary John Kirby.
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Trucks loaded with weapons pallets provided by the Department of Defense are picked up by the Ukrainian armed forces — mainly in Poland — and then driven to Ukraine, Kirby said, "then it's up to the Ukrainians to determine where they go and how they are allocated within his country".
A congressional source noted that while the United States is not on the ground in Ukraine, it has tools to know what is going on beyond what Ukrainians say, noting that the United States makes extensive use of satellite imagery and that both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries appear to be using commercial communications equipment.
Another congressional source said the US military considers the information it receives from Ukraine to be generally reliable because the United States has trained and equipped the Ukrainian military for eight years, developing strong relationships.
But that doesn't mean there aren't some blind spots, the source said, for example on issues like the operational status of Ukraine's S-300s.
Jordan Cohen, a defense and foreign policy analyst at the CATO Institute who focuses on arms sales, said the biggest danger surrounding the flood of weapons funneled into Ukraine is what happens to them when the war ends or transitions into some kind of prolonged stagnation.
This risk is part of any consideration for sending arms abroad.
For decades, the United States sent weapons to Afghanistan, first to arm the mujahideen in their fight against the Soviet army, and later to arm Afghan forces in their fight against the Taliban.
Inevitably, some weapons ended up on the black market, including Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, the same type that the United States is now providing to Ukraine.
The US effort to recover the Stingers after the Soviet war in Afghanistan is famous.
He failed to find them all, and when the United States itself invaded Afghanistan in 2001, some officials feared that they might be used by the Taliban against the United States.
Other weapons have ended up arming America's adversaries.
Much of what the United States left to help Afghan forces became part of the Taliban arsenal after the collapse of the Afghan government and military.
The problem is not unique to Afghanistan.
Weapons sold to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates found their way into the hands of fighters linked to Al Qaeda and Iran.
The risk of a similar scenario occurring in Ukraine also exists, the defense official acknowledged.
In 2020, the Department of Defense's inspector general released a report raising concerns about end-use control of weapons being shipped to Ukraine.
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But given the near-insatiable short-term needs of Ukrainian forces for more weapons and ammunition, the long-term risk of weapons ending up on the black market or in the wrong hands was deemed acceptable, the official said.
"This could be a problem 10 years from now, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't think about it," said Cohen, the CATO analyst.
"More than 50 million rounds of ammunition, all of that ammunition is not just going to be used to fight the Russians. Eventually that ammunition is going to be misused, whether intentionally or not."
The Russian threat
Officials are less concerned - at least for now - about the weapons falling into Russian hands.
The informed intelligence source pointed out that the fact that Russia has failed to hold large swaths of territory or force the surrender of many Ukrainian units means that those weapons have been used or remain in Ukrainian hands.
And so far, it appears that Russia has had a difficult time intercepting or destroying supply shipments.
A third source familiar with the intelligence said it does not appear that Russia has been actively targeting Western arms shipments entering Ukraine, though exactly why is unclear, especially since the US has intelligence that the Russians want do it and have discussed doing it both publicly and privately.
This person added that there are several theories as to why the shipments have been avoided so far, including that Russian forces simply cannot find them, as the weapons and equipment are shipped in unmarked vehicles and are often transported at night.
It could also be that Russian forces are running low on ammunition and don't want to waste it attacking random trucks unless they can be sure they are part of an arms convoy.
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Although this Monday Russia claimed that it had destroyed a warehouse "near Lviv", which contained "large shipments" of weapons supplied to Ukraine by the United States and European countries.
CNN has not been able to verify this claim.
But in broad strokes, Russia also does not have perfect intelligence visibility into Ukraine, this source noted, and its air capabilities over western Ukraine, where the shipments arrive, are extremely limited due to Ukrainian air defense systems.
Publicly, the Pentagon says it has yet to see Russian attempts to disrupt arms transfers or shipments moving within Ukraine.
"Flights continue to enter trans-shipment locations in the region. And there continues to be ground movement of this material within Ukraine. Every day, security assistance, weapons, and support material and equipment is reaching Ukrainian hands," he said. Kirby on Thursday.
"We're going to keep doing that as long as we can, as fast as we can. We haven't seen any Russian effort to intercept that flow. So we're going to keep doing that," he added.
"We look at it constantly every day, we monitor it, we change it, we adapt it as needed."
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