No winner by knockout.
This is the main lesson learned by the Odoxa Institute and Backbone Consulting after a survey carried out for
Le Figaro
following the debate between the two rounds.
According to the poll, Emmanuel Macron is, by a short margin, the candidate who was the most convincing in the eyes of the French on Wednesday evening.
Nearly a third of them share this opinion (30%) against 23% for Marine Le Pen, while nearly one in two French people (47%) do not distinguish any winner or have ignored the debate.
The outgoing president is only ahead of his opponent by 7%, while the gap was almost 30 points in 2017.
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If we focus on the French who chose between one or the other of the two candidates, 56% believe that the candidate president was the most convincing, against 44% for Marine Le Pen.
Five years ago, the same poll carried out after the debate between the two rounds gave the candidate En Marche the winner at 72%, against 28% for the candidate RN.
Looking at the details of the thirteen major themes discussed during the debate, the match turns out to be even tighter: on average, 48% of French people consider that Emmanuel Macron was the most convincing, against 47% who give the advantage to Marine Le pen.
Macron wins in substance, Le Pen in form
The areas in which the outgoing president has taken over are the place of France internationally (62%), the way of governing and the functioning of institutions (57%), as well as the growth and competitiveness of the economy (55%).
The RN candidate, on the other hand, was better in the eyes of respondents on issues related to immigration (57%), security (57%), pensions (56%) and purchasing power (54%) .
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On the merits, it was Emmanuel Macron who won: 62% of French people who watched the debate believe that he showed that he mastered his files the most, 61% believe that he showed the most stature of a president and 57% find that he showed more than he knew where he was going.
On the other hand, on the form, it is Marine Le Pen kept her cool more in the eyes of the French: 57% believe that she was the calmest and that she controlled herself the best.
Mélenchon voters divided
Among voters who voted for another candidate in the first round, those of Fabien Roussel, Anne Hidalgo, Yannick Jadot were the most convinced by the performance of Emmanuel Macron (40% against 10% for Marine Le Pen), followed by voters of Valérie Pécresse (36% against 16%).
On the Marine Le Pen side, 52% of Eric Zemmour's voters judged that she was the most convincing.
They are only 7% to have preferred the service of the candidate president.
The rebellious voters, who have a key role for the second round, are more divided: 29% found Emmanuel Macron more convincing, against 21% for Marine Le Pen.
Respondents were relatively satisfied with this in-between-round debate.
Nearly 6 out of 10 believe that it addressed the main concerns of French people (66%) and found it interesting (58%).
However, 3 out of 4 voters (76%) say he will not change the outcome of his vote.
