Laurent Izard is a normalien and agrégé from the University in economics and management. He is the author of numerous higher education textbooks in economics and management. He notably published
In the sweat of your forehead
(The Gunner) in 2021.
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The debate seems to be over before it has really started: faced with the structural imbalances of our pension system and given the aging of the population, it would be imperative to push back the legal retirement age to 64 or more.
We are told that there is no alternative solution, and that we are set back on this subject compared to our neighbours: In Germany, we work until 65 years and 8 months (for insured persons born in 1954) .
We retire at 67 in Italy, at 65 in Spain, and at 66 in the United Kingdom…
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But we often "forget" to specify that in China the legal (and mandatory) retirement age is 60 for men and 50 for women (except civil servants).
In the Nordic countries, this legal age is 61 in Sweden, 62 in Norway and 63 in Finland.
And going further, the legal retirement age remains fixed at around 60 in Algeria, Belarus, Ukraine, Pakistan, Vietnam, India or Russia…
Relying on the pension schemes in force in other countries to decide our future is indicative of our renunciation of defending a certain independence and a specific French social model.
Laurent Izard
What is also forgotten is that the legal age is only one piece of the puzzle: it is also necessary to look at the real average retirement age in the different countries, which can deviate significantly from the legal age: for example, in Italy, the average retirement age is less than 62, i.e. more than 5 years before the legal age... In fact, it all depends on the terms of the discount early departures, the amount of pensions and the multiple derogations from the legal age that exist in many countries.
As we can see, international comparisons are in fact more complex than it seems at first sight.
And relying on the pension schemes in force in other countries to decide our future is indicative of our renunciation of defending a certain independence and a specific French social model.
Another central question: as we know, the employment rate of seniors is significantly lower than that of the working population as a whole: barely more than 30% of 60-64 year olds are employed.
This discrepancy can easily be explained by the fact that seniors, who are more difficult to employ, are more discouraged and therefore no longer register with Pôle Emploi.
And yet, almost everything has been done to encourage seniors to work longer: abolition of early retirement schemes, postponement of the legal age from 60 to 62 in 2010, pension reform projects encouraging people to work longer, etc.
.
The job search exemption enjoyed by certain unemployed seniors, aged 57 and over, was abolished on January 1, 2012 in accordance with the government's objective of "
putting an end to measures that help to keep senior employees out of the job market .
work
”.
And to promote the return to work of the over 50s, the Valls government launched the "Senior Plan", unveiled at the major social conference in July 2014, which aims in particular to fight against the obstacles to recruitment and retention of seniors.
In fact, the French are supposed to stay in business longer.
The first mechanical effect of the planned reform will be to transform tens of thousands of potential retirees into real unemployed.
Laurent Izard
By accentuating this process, a possible implementation of the pension reform proposed by Emmanuel Macron would run the risk of upsetting a little more an inescapable biological law: over time, both the body and the brain age and it is therefore unreasonable to impose a " retirement age for all” too late.
Who would agree to be operated by a surgeon whose hands are shaking and whose sight is declining, but who must continue to practice to reach the required number of working quarters (the future “health” law envisages an age limit of 72 for them with possible extensions of activity!)?
Until what age does a teacher have enough
energy to face a class of 35 unruly students (a note from the Île-de-France Academic Region released in June 2021 considers the hypothesis of an extension of activity beyond 72 years old…)?
Is it reasonable to exercise a physical trade (roofer, firefighter, etc.) after a certain age?
As we can see, the reform project acutely raises the question of a single legal retirement age.
This question remains taboo in France, in particular because of the strong attachment to this principle of a majority of trade unions.
And for those who leave their job late, voluntarily or not, the probability of finding another is particularly low.
Thus, even if this is not always visible in the official statistics, a manager (or a worker) over 50 looking for a job leaves with a serious handicap and the programmed decline in retirement age. retirement will not improve his situation.
The first mechanical effect of the envisaged reform will be to transform tens of thousands of potential retirees into real unemployed...
Another element of the debate that is too often overlooked: young people are the first victims of unemployment, which affects their entry into the labor market, but also their remuneration and career prospects.
The unemployment rate of young working people is twice that of the French population as a whole (according to INSEE, it has stagnated for years between 20 and 25%).
In fact, the 16-25 age bracket is an adjustment variable in the event of a crisis or external shock.
It is primarily subject to all the vagaries of economic activity and empirical analysis actually shows that youth unemployment explodes after each international crisis.
The 2020 health crisis has brought a new illustration of this: canceled or untraceable internships, plummeting job offers,
And when a young person gets a job, there is a high probability that it will be a fixed-term contract: according to the Ministry of Labour, the share of fixed-term contracts in the flow of hiring has gone from 76% in 1993 to 87% in 2017. And 30% of these fixed-term contracts only last one day!
For Céreq, “
this new recruitment 'norm' is not without effects on the effective possibilities of medium-term stabilization of young people in employment.
It can be for some a springboard to a career, but for others a trap of
precariousness
.
In a study published on February 7, 2020, Dares admits that in 2018, 963,000 young people aged 16 to 25 were neither in education, employment, nor training – Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET ) – as defined by Eurostat.
However, this definition leads to a reduction in the scale of the phenomenon.
Because by including young people up to the age of 29, the number of NEETS in France is closer to 1.7 million people!
To sum up: on the one hand, a majority of seniors who want to retire earlier, the ideal age desired according to a recent survey being around 58 years old.
On the other, a multitude of young people struggling to enter the job market.
Even if there is no mechanistic relationship between the two phenomena, wouldn't simple common sense allow seniors who so wish to “free up” a job that could be occupied by a young person?
Thus, even if it were essential to "work more", this does not necessarily imply that French people who are already working should work longer: as the OECD rightly points out, "
French people who work do so as much as in other OECD countries, but they are employed less often and also work less over their lifetime, which affects their purchasing power during their working life and when they retire
".
But what really poses a problem, in addition to the late entry of young people into the world of work, is above all the total employment rate of the French.
This ratio stood at 65.5% at the end of 2019, three points lower than the average for OECD countries.
In other words, if we succeeded in significantly reducing unemployment, and in particular youth unemployment, it would no longer be necessary to increase the retirement age.
As we can see, raising the retirement age is the result of a political choice more than an accounting or financial obligation.
Laurent Izard
Another aspect of the question, despite the persistence of mass unemployment, we are improving our labor productivity every year.
According to the most pessimistic scenarios, hourly labor productivity in our country could now turn around 1% per year, which is much faster than the evolution of life expectancy.
In short, could the growth of our productivity not compensate for the lengthening of life expectancy?
As we can see, raising the retirement age is the result of a political choice more than an accounting or financial obligation.
A statement shared by the Pensions Orientation Council (COR) which writes in its latest report that despite the aging of the French population, and without major reform, "
changes in the share of pension expenditure in GDP would remain on a controlled trajectory by 2070
”.
Ideally, each individual should be able to choose their working hours and the date of their retirement (with a sustainable discount system), taking into account their personal situation, their professional appetite and their financial needs.
And,
at a minimum
, each nation should be able to democratically determine the desired working time by arbitrating between working time (wealth creation) and available free time (leisure, rest, family, culture, etc.).
This is a political issue and a societal choice that should give rise to real debates and sovereign decisions.
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Globalization forbids it.
Indeed, in an open economy, without adjustment mechanisms, we must remain permanently competitive and align ourselves more or less with the working hours practiced in competing countries.
Differences are obviously possible, but the price to pay can be high (loss of competitiveness, unemployment, etc.).
The labor cost differential is an obstacle that is difficult to overcome, and unless we upset our economic relations with the rest of the world, we are forced to follow the practices of the dominant economies: United States, China or Japan... for which a harmonious balance time between work and free time is not a priority... or even a secondary objective.
However, the international constraint should not lead to overshadowing the debate on the future of our pension system, quite the contrary... Because pushing back the legal retirement age by three years amounts to forcing many French people to live the three the most difficult years of their professional life and to deprive themselves of the best three years of their retirement.