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Food imports at risk:
an African farmer digs planting holes
Photo: image broker/Florian Kopp / imago images
After a long dry period in East Africa, countries such as
Kenya, Ethiopia
and
Somalia
are suffering from a severe drought.
For smallholder families, the harvest often fails completely, and the number of livestock has more than halved in many regions.
Around 20 million people are already life-threateningly weakened in the Horn of Africa, reports the United Nations World Food Program (WFP).
There are also violent conflicts, plagues of locusts and rising inflation worldwide.
"In addition, many people in Africa have lost their jobs in more than two years of the corona pandemic," says
Matin Qaim
(52), Professor of Agricultural Economics and Director of the Center for Development Research (ZEF) at the University of Bonn.
In many places, the social support programs no longer worked as before, because many governments wanted to contain the economic damage caused by savings.
"The consequences of the Ukraine war are now adding to this already tense situation," reports Qaim.
"Most prices for food and other basic necessities are already at record highs, which is explosive and should receive more political attention."
Hardly any grain comes to Africa from Russia and the Ukraine.
Before the war, the two countries provided around 28 percent of global wheat exports, and 40 percent of the fertilizer potash came from Russia and Belarus.
Food supply endangered - and with it the social peace
Countries like
Egypt
and
Tunisia
are now having major problems in supplying the population with basic foods.
Tunisia, for example, has so far covered around half of its wheat requirements through imports from Russia and Ukraine.
Now President
Kais Saied
(64) is already warning of a threat to social peace because of the flour shortage.
In a short time, the effects of war could lead to dramatic problems for the food supply of the African population.
In addition: in economically difficult and uncertain times, capital likes to move to the so-called "safe havens";
ie the more prosperous countries.
This makes it even more difficult to finance private investments and government loans.
The need could worsen drastically.
"It's not just about the number of hungry people, but also about those who suffer from malnutrition because they can no longer afford nutrient-rich foods such as fruit and vegetables," says agricultural economist Qaim.
"Especially in small children who temporarily take in too little iron, iodine or vitamin A, the mental and physical development is significantly worse than with a balanced supply of nutrients".
IMF warns of disruption to global cooperation
The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
Kristalina Georgiewa
(68), is also sounding the alarm: the food supply is a cause for great concern, she said in a speech at the joint spring meeting of the IMF and World Bank.
She called on the international community to support the affected countries, especially in Africa.
"The alternative is terrible: more hunger, more poverty and more social unrest - especially in countries that have struggled for years to leave instability and conflict behind," warned Georgieva.
She also warns of the global economy breaking up into geopolitical blocs.
Global supply chains, research and production networks could then break apart and would have to be recreated.
Poor countries and poor people would suffer most of this distortion.
"In a world where war in Europe is causing hunger in Africa, and where a pandemic can span the globe in days and linger for years, the threat of disruption to global cooperation to our collective prosperity cannot be overstated," he said the IMF chief.
