Inflation is expected to exceed 20% this year in Russia and the Russian economy will suffer in the future from a fall in energy exports which are for the moment largely offset by the increase in energy prices, indicates the Monetary Fund (IMF) in its report on Europe published on Friday.
“
In Russia, sanctions and unprecedented uncertainty are expected to weigh heavily on investment and exports, as well as depress imports and private consumption,
” summarize the authors of the report.
To discover
LIVE - Presidential: Macron and Le Pen on the ground for the last day of the campaign
Macron-Le Pen debate: what to remember from the face-to-face for the 2022 presidential election
Taxes 2022: all about your tax return
Read also War in Ukraine: is it possible to isolate the Russian economy “in a few hours”?
The IMF points out that the energy sector, the “
backbone
” of the Russian economy, has been excluded from the sanctions.
But "
there are signs that Russian energy exports are being shunned in the market
."
"
Most importantly, Germany and many EU countries have effectively begun to wean their economies off Russian energy sources
," the report's authors continue.
The IMF has calculated that around 60-70% of Russia's current demand for oil and natural gas could disappear over the next few years, "
which will force Russia to diversify its exports to other regions
".
This week, the IMF, which was holding its spring meetings, indicated that it was expecting an 8.5% contraction in Russia's gross domestic product, mainly due to a fall in export volumes combined with a decline in domestic demand.
For now, “
energy exports in 2022 are expected to reach US$350 billion, up 40% from last year due to higher prices
,” according to data published in the report on Friday. .
Inflation over 20% in 2022
“
From next year, however, a decline in the volume and price of Russia's energy exports is expected to gradually reduce Russia's current account surplus
,” the authors explain.
They estimate that in the medium term, energy exports could fall to $250 billion, as the European Union reduces its energy imports from Russia.
Read alsoIf sanctions persist, Russian economy will take years to rebuild, Russian officials say
As for inflation, it had risen rapidly in March due to the sharp depreciation of the ruble and shortages of certain goods.
However, “
recent data suggest signs of moderation due to the appreciation of the ruble and the curbs on food exports
,” notes the IMF.
Inflation should nevertheless exceed 20% in 2022.
The authors of the report note that the measures taken by the government have been effective in mitigating the impact of sanctions imposed by Western countries in retaliation for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“
Deposits and the exchange rate have almost completely recovered following the measures taken by the Bank of Russia to stabilize confidence in the financial system
”, they note in particular.
