French elections: Is the world expected to be more shocked by Brexit and Trump?
Millions of French people will vote for the next president of France tomorrow - and crucial issues are at stake: staying in or out of the EU, the cost of living, economic reforms and immigration.
The financial markets are also expecting results, with the assessment that Le Pen's victory will lead to a shock
Tali Goldstein
23/04/2022
Saturday, 23 April 2022, 17:29 Updated: 17:31
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French voters will go to the polls tomorrow (Sunday) to vote in the final round of the presidential race between incumbent President Emanuel Macron and far-right candidate Marin Le Pen.
Polling stations will close at 7pm across the country (French time), and in large cities, such as Paris, at 8pm (9pm Israel time).
The results of the initial samples are usually a correct estimate of the actual results, which we will probably know the next day.
According to polls Friday - the last day of the campaign - Macron, the center-right man, will win the election, with 57.5% against 42.5% for La Pen.
However, the true outcome is still unclear.
The election is being held against the backdrop of economic and political pressures inside and outside France, in Europe, which is creating uncertainty.
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Chances are he will win.
Emanuel Macron (Photo: Reuters, Thibault Camus / Pool via REUTERS)
The main issue in the current election was the soaring cost of living, from electricity and fuel bills to food products.
Le Pen's staff identified this early in the campaign, and the candidate promised a government of national unity that would attack the cost of living, as well as a referendum on immigration and a ban on wearing a head covering in public.
Macron kept a simple and concise message: "This election is a kind of referendum, on secularism and on Europe," he said.
According to him, the idea of Le Pen - "Europe of countries" - will bring an end to the EU.
Macron reminded voters of the Brexit in Britain and the presidency of Donald Trump in the United States.
"There are millions of people who a few hours before the Brexit decided not to vote. The same thing happened in 2016 with Trump. The next day they woke up with an ongoing hangover," he said.
May still win.
Marine Le Pen (Photo: Reuters)
Marin Le Pen in Calling for Voters
To vote or not to vote?
One of the big problems for both candidates is the large number of voters who are about to put a white ballot paper or not vote at all.
According to polls, the turnout tomorrow is expected to be the lowest since 1969.
Moreover, Macron's dissatisfaction with his center-right policies was revealed in the first round, where more than half of voters supported the far right or far left.
More than one in five voters supported far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who came third in the first round with 20%.
Many in France also did not forget the yellow vest protest against rising fuel prices and the cost of living that erupted 18 months after Macron was elected president in 2017, following which Le Pen claimed in the campaign that Macron is the president of only the rich.
According to recent polls, Macron will win with 53% -57%.
The big question is what will happen to the 7.7 million votes he received from Melanchone in the first round.
According to a survey by the Ipsos Polling Institute on Friday, 48% of the people who voted for Melanchone in the first round do not support any of the candidates in the last round.
Macron is loyal to the European Union
And what do economists think?
Wall Street is also expressing interest in the French election and its implications for the markets.
Goldman Sachs Investment Bank gives 90% chance that Macron will win the election.
If that happens, investors can expect market continuity - even if Macron renews the reforms he has planned.
However, if Le Pen wins, the markets will be shocked by the uncertainty rising around its domestic policy and against staying in the union.
Citigroup gave a 65% chance of Macron winning.
According to the bank, its chances of winning are "greater than in 2017", given the expectation of a low turnout and the refusal of left-wing voters to support Macron.
"A surprise victory for Le Pen could lead to declines in the French stock market," Citigroup said.
The euro will also weaken if Le Pen wins.
However, Macron's victory will support the strengthening of the currency.
According to Societe Generale Bank, the outcome is not yet clear, and its possibility cannot be ruled out lest it win.
"The race is still very close and uncertainty is high. A victory for Lefebvre will cause sharp declines in the stock market, the bank estimated.
" A victory for each of the candidates will lead France to a completely different political, economic, European and geopolitical path, "Dutch ING economists told -CNBC.
Macron's victory will lead to tighter integration in the EU, while Le Pen's victory "will not contribute to European unity" while Russia is an enemy of the whole of Europe.
"France has always been one of the driving forces of the EU.
"The election of a Eurosceptic president will be a shock to the union," ING said.
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