The gap at the national level between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election this year is much smaller than in 2017: 16 versus 32 points.
And the RN candidate owes it in particular to her scores obtained in the overseas territories.
Marine Le Pen obtained nearly 61% of the votes in Martinique and Guyana, and even nearly 70% in Guadeloupe.
This is two to three times more than five years ago, when it was defeated.
Asked by Le Parisien, Justin Daniel, professor of political science at the University of the West Indies, even said he was "a little surprised", because he "expected a tightening, rather than such a reversal of the trend".
Jean-Luc Mélenchon had come by far in the lead in the first round in these overseas territories, but his call to "not give a voice to the far right" does not seem to have been heard there.
Turnout is only slightly lower than five years ago, so this RN score can't really be explained by fewer voters.
The reasons are to be found elsewhere.
Purchasing power, Marine Le Pen's priority
The context, first.
The far-right party has been trying to improve its scores in the overseas territories for several years.
He even achieved historically high scores there in the 2019 European elections.
“The vote for this party goes beyond the simple expression of a sanction.
It also translates a part of adhesion on the speeches and the positions which are the mark of the RN ”, indicated to us then the political scientist specializing in the Overseas Yvan Combeau, who had insisted on “the intensity of the social questions (power of purchase, salary, housing)” in these territories which are poorer than the French average.
However, purchasing power was the number one axis of Marine Le Pen's campaign.
Read alsoBetween Macron and Le Pen, it was blow for blow until the last minute
Justin Daniel nevertheless sees it "above all a vote against Macron rather than a vote in favor of Marine Le Pen, and the best proof of this is the high score obtained by Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round".
It is true that the five years that have just passed have given rise to many tensions between these territories located 7000 km from mainland France and the government.
This was particularly noticeable during the Covid pandemic.
These West Indian territories are twice less vaccinated than the mainland, mainly because mistrust against the bite is very strong there.
The obligation to vaccinate caregivers, coupled with the establishment of the health pass, led to sometimes very violent demonstrations on the spot.
"The State does not take the measure of the stakes"
Gilles Belmo, director of the Martinique housing information agency (ADIL), also points to “the potential dismissal of the trial on chlordecone”, this pesticide which contaminated more than 90% of the adult population in Guadeloupe and Martinique, among the reasons explaining this distrust of the state.
"The inhabitants have the impression that the State does not take the measure of the issues that concern them", judge Justin Daniel.
A month before the election, André Rougé, Marine Le Pen's "Overseas" spokesperson, estimated on RCI that Emmanuel Macron was "without a doubt the most to blame in view of his lack of interest in the main subjects which stirred overseas in recent years: chlordecone, or the unacceptable lack of access to water for a large part of the population, from the Antilles to Mayotte".