Inflation is accelerating in France.
In supermarkets, it reached +2.67% in April - compared to April 2021 -, according to data from panelist NielsenIQ published last week, after +1.26% in March and +0.52% in February.
"
An unprecedented increase, we had never seen such a high figure in the past
," notes Emmanuel Cannes, expert at the company specializing in the analysis of consumer behavior and distribution.
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Certain food products are particularly affected by these price increases.
Over one month, from March to April, it is the meat, poultry and charcuterie category that is experiencing the highest inflation, according to NielsenIQ, and by far (+5.23%).
Asked about RMC on Tuesday, the president of the French Confederation of Butchery-Charcuterie-Caterers (CFBCT), Jean-François Guihard, justified this significant increase by "
a drop in production
" in recent times, due to "
insufficient remuneration
of breeders, and by rising energy prices.
According to Emmanuel Cannes, of NielsenIQ, there are also “
undoubtedly
anticipation effects
” due to the war in Ukraine, which has caused cereal prices to soar, and therefore by extension the cost of animal feed.
"
The meat will continue to increase for several months
," says Jean-François Guihard.
Oil Rush
Behind the meat, poultry and charcuterie category, it was oil that experienced the highest inflation over one month (+2.96%), due "
mainly to tensions on the cereal markets, in particular wheat, of which prices have been rising for several months and have exploded with the crisis in Ukraine
,” explains Emmanuel Cannes.
A trend that could get even worse, given the rush of French consumers for sunflower oil, of which Ukraine is the largest producer in the world: oil sales jumped 29% in April, according to NielsenIQ.
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If they are not part of the ten most inflationary product categories over a month according to NielsenIQ, pasta is also weighing more and more heavily on household wallets.
The price increase observed in supermarkets over one year reached +13.4% in March compared to the same month last year, according to the panelist IRI.
We find the same explanation as for oil: "
the rise in the price of raw materials
", analyzes Emily Mayer, expert at IRI
,
"
in particular durum wheat since October, due in particular to the vagaries of the weather, in particular the summer drought in Canada
”.
A surge in commodity prices which "
ultimately affects many products
", underlines Emmanuel Cannes, of the NielsenIQ firm, citing among others flour and sugar, two other products among the most inflationary in April over one month.
For roasted coffee, the third most inflationary category in April (+2.88%), the cause is to be found in “
weather conditions in Brazil last year
”, notes Emmanuel Cannes.
For paper towels (+2.59%) or toilet paper (+2.11%), on the side of “
supply problems in the wood sector
”.
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And the increases to be collected for consumers are not over.
“
We will see a rise in inflation at the beginning of the summer
,” warns Emily Mayer, of the IRI firm, when the full effects of the war in Ukraine will be felt.
The analysis company estimates that the rise in prices of consumer goods and fresh food could reach +5% at that time.
On the NielsenIQ side, we expect an annual increase of 4% in 2022. “
The hierarchy of the products concerned will not change much compared to today, only the percentages will increase
”, advances Emily Mayer.