David Desgouilles is a columnist at
Marianne
.
He has published
Dérapage
(ed. du Rocher, 2017) and
Their Lost Wars
, (ed. du Rocher, 2019).
To discover
YOUR COMMUNE - The results of the second round of the presidential election in your area
FIGAROVOX. - The Republicans have chosen to lead the legislative campaign under their colors, but some plead for a majority of projects with the Macronists. Can the party avoid implosion?
David DESGOUILLES. -
There are indeed three kinds of elected LR, those who want to join the majority Macronist bloc immediately, those who wish to possibly debate a coalition after legislative elections carried out under their colors and finally those who do not want to hear at all agree with Emmanuel Macron.
The risk of implosion is therefore not excluded in the months or even weeks to come.
Obviously, the result of the legislative elections will have a decisive influence on the future of the Republicans.
In 2017, they had managed to maintain a group of around a hundred deputies, but they were resting on a base of 20% in the presidential election achieved by François Fillon two months earlier.
This time, their candidate did not reach 5%.
With a presidential score barely higher, that of Benoît Hamon, the PS had managed to form a group of 31 elements in 2017. If, in addition, some of these re-elected deputies wish to join the majority then, we will indeed be able to talk about implosion.
There is both the observation that they are very close ideologically to Emmanuel Macron and opportunism in the sense that there is a desire to participate in power.
David Desgouilles
Many elected LRs have said they are ready to work with the macronists, such as the mayor of Saint-Etienne Gaël Perdriau, the mayor of La Baule Franck Louvrier, the deputy of Yonne Guillaume Larrivé, or even the senator of Paris Céline Boulay- Hopeful. Should we see opportunism or is LR ideologically soluble in macronism?
These personalities, to which we must add Damien Abad, president of the LR group in the National Assembly and Daniel Fasquelle, treasurer of the party, make the same observation as Bruno Le Maire, Gérald Darmanin and of course Edouard Philippe, five years later.
Where they considered in 2017 that LR could get up and take over the leadership of an elite bloc, described by Jérôme Sainte-Marie, they now take note that it has now become a rearguard fight.
To quote Franck Louvrier, it is a question of
"no longer being on the sidelines"
.
So to answer your question specifically, I would answer “both, my captain”.
There is both the observation that they are very close ideologically to Emmanuel Macron and opportunism in the sense that there is a desire to participate in power and respond positively when we make eyes at them.
But not all are on this line at LR, as I indicated above.
However, the President of the Republicans affirmed that his party was not soluble "neither in Lepenism nor in Macronism"...
If we are to believe Le
Canard Enchaîné
, Christian Jacob considers that the debate on an alliance with Macron should take place, but after the legislative elections.
He does not reject the idea of a coalition but from a party whose local base he seems to think will make it possible to do much better than the PS in 2017. But above all, he is aware that following the Nicolas Sarkozy's advice by negotiating now with Emmanuel Macron would accelerate the implosion.
Damien Abad seems to think the opposite by proposing to the deputies of his group to save their seat by negotiating their entry into the presidential majority now.
On the other side, the most inclined to refuse this prospect and preserve the independence of their party are Laurent Wauquiez, Bruno Retailleau and Nadine Morano.
It is no coincidence that they are respectively president of the region, senator and European deputy, that is to say not at all concerned by the legislative elections.
On the other hand, someone like Julien Aubert, a deputy in a very difficult constituency, has much more panache to hold this independent position.
To read alsoJulien Aubert: “The 100 reasons not to vote Macron”
At the national level, there are now two main blocs, elite or popular, and we must take note of this.
David Desgouilles
Do Republicans still have political space?
If they think in terms of a linear right-left axis, as they did during the presidential election, they no longer have any space.
At the national level, there are now two main blocs, elite or popular, and we must take note of this.
Those who share Emmanuel Macron's ideas must join him.
But the others?
They have no choice but to integrate the other bloc, and seek to become hegemonic there.
This is what François Mitterrand did after the socialist debacle of 1969. This means on the one hand that this strategy has already succeeded, on the other hand that it may take ten years, and finally that it goes from one side by an economic update, because the Fillon-Pécresse line is impossible to keep in order to reach the working classes, and on the other by an alliance with the RN, as the PS of Épinay had done with the PCF .
To answer a question that you are not asking me, this is a different strategy from that of Éric Zemmour since the latter continued to reflect on a right-left linear axis and, in doing so, he took up a economic line close to Valérie Pécresse and Emmanuel Macron.
Its failure is no stranger to it.