Corona in autumn: Austrian expertise shows several possible scenarios
Created: 04/28/2022, 17:09
By: Anna Lorenz
In a current working paper, the “Covid-19 Future Operations” platform from Austria presents possible corona scenarios for the fall.
Austria – "In the context of fighting a pandemic, it is important to constantly weigh up health, epidemiological, psychosocial, social, economic and ethical aspects when deciding on certain public health interventions and to take into account individual and societal implications." With this dogma, a current working paper of the interdisciplinary platform "Covid-19 Future Operations" from Austria possible future scenarios in the context of the corona pandemic.
Experts from various universities, the Austrian Red Cross, various companies, the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and the Vienna Science and Technology Fund published "Covid-19: Scenarios for Autumn/Winter 2022 - and beyond" as an expertise for the political Leading the upcoming pandemic issues.
Corona expertise from Austria: Possible pandemic decisions to be considered under guidelines
According to the working paper, as part of the development of the pandemic, there are always a variety of priorities, some of which could also be contrary or competing.
Guidelines sorted in advance according to their significance are therefore essential for the qualified classification of possible courses of action with regard to future developments of Corona.
In simplified terms, the expert group considers the following goals to be important:
Saving lives, avoiding suffering, gaining healthy years of life
Minimization of health burdens (Long-/Post-Covid) and collateral damage
Stable functionality of the entire health care system
Reconciling the interests of the business and health sectors
Indemnification of wealth factors and education sector
Preventing polarization and social division
Minimizing the restrictions on personal freedom in terms of time and content intensity
Participation in international, solidarity-based pandemic control
In addition, the assessment of the Austrian committee works under a number of premises that are assumed to be scientifically sufficiently well-founded.
It can therefore be assumed that antibodies, whether they were caused by vaccination or infection, only prevent infection with the corona virus for a few months.
High incidence waves can currently be expected after six to seven months at the latest.
Furthermore, previous investigations revealed a crucial role of the T-cells, as well as an increased vulnerability of older people.
Although the corona virus is considered to be highly contagious, measures to contain the infection process are difficult to communicate to society.
How further mutations of the virus will develop is just as imponderable as the possibility of several malignant variants occurring at the same time.
Continuous wastewater analyzes and regular spot checks are just as indispensable for monitoring developments as cross-border cooperation and data exchange.
Future with Corona: Experts from Austria outline possible scenarios
As part of these preliminary considerations, the committee outlines a total of five different potential future scenarios for the development of the coronavirus.
British researchers had already devoted their attention to the outlook for the coming years in February.
In addition to the worst case of an escalation of the pandemic, the possible options for the coming years are divided into four categories: the "best possible", "favourable", "medium" and "unfavourable" scenario.
At best | Cheap | Middle | Unfavorable | |
virus | no longer mutates, Omicron remains the last variant | now only mutates into forms that resemble Omicron in their effects | mutated | mutates into contagious-dangerous variants or recombines with other corona viruses |
infection | seasonal fluctuations | high incidences every 1-2 years | high incidences in autumn and winter, as well as with rampant growth of new variants | high incidences regularly |
illness value | harmless, comparable to seasonal respiratory infections | usually mild courses, intensive medical care rarely | tends to be mild courses, phases of intensive medical care more frequent | usually intensive medical care |
vaccination/therapeutics | recommended for vulnerable groups | for vulnerable groups | for vulnerable groups (at least 1 vaccination per year), recommended for adults | for adults (at least 1 vaccination per year) compulsory vaccination, development of resistance to therapeutic agents possible |
Mask requirement | usually unnecessary | Mask requirement indoors for contact with vulnerable groups | FFP2 mandatory indoors, general recommendation in high incidence phases | General FFP2 obligation |
healthcare system | no challenge | Minor capacity expansions required | phased system-critical load, contact restrictions with foreseeable overloading of the intensive care units | regular system-critical stress, contact restrictions in the event of foreseeable overloading of the intensive care units, possibility of lockdowns lasting several weeks until the health system has recovered |
testing | usually unnecessary | regular spot checks | regular random testing, high frequency in high incidence phases | high-frequency testing in kindergartens, schools and in vulnerable groups, broad testing of the population |
surveillance system | regular sentinels and sewage tests | regular sentinels and sewage tests, real-time infection and hospitalization data | Sentinels and sewage testing, real-time infection and hospitalization data | Sentinels and sewage testing, real-time infection and hospitalization data |
company | immune-rich population | immune-enhanced population | increasingly immune-protected population | deficient immune-protected population; Creation of systems for the care of mental and stress-related consequences in society and social life (e.g. telephone services), preventive systems against aggravation of social inequalities |
economic system | not challenged | hardly challenged | challenged | strongly challenged |
However, the fearful prospect of "the pandemic escalating" would still exist if, for example, the SARS-CoV-2 virus fuses with another coronavirus and "larger parts of the viral genome are completely exchanged." suitable vaccines would first have to be developed, deaths could increase significantly again.
Until medicine is adapted to the changed situation, only a zero-Covid strategy would be effective, which “would suggest lockdowns and strong contact and mobility restrictions – i.e. border closures, home offices, school closures, etc.”.
Austrian Corona working paper: "Preparedness" as the key in dealing with the pandemic
According to the experts, making appropriate preparations is essential with regard to these possible future options.
In principle, the existing test system should be retained in order to "perform regular, statistically valid random sample tests" and to enable corresponding tests in the event of a renewed introduction of 3G regulations.
It is also advisable to maintain the vaccination infrastructure in order to be able to quickly offer vaccinations in the event of new waves of infection.
Active contact with vulnerable population groups, including a data collection system, is also recommended.
In addition to regular ventilation, air quality monitoring and the use of ventilation and air purification devices, the wastewater monitoring of Sars-CoV-2 in the inflow of municipal sewage treatment plants has also proven to be a good tool in the fight against the pandemic.
Austrian working paper: Corona expert calls for participation via Twitter
Andreas Bergthaler, Professor of Molecular Immunology and Head of the Institute for Hygiene and Applied Immunology at the Center for Pathophysiology, Infectious Diseases and Immunology at MedUni Vienna and co-author of the Austrian working paper, has now publicly called on Twitter for the population to have a say.
"This is to be understood as version 1.0," wrote the doctor about the working paper of the Austrian experts.
“Constructive criticism, ideas and suggestions are welcome to be posted here.
We will discuss these and try to take them into account.”
The reactions on the social media platform were correspondingly enthusiastic.
However, Bergthaler's offer is only logical: the committee sees communication with the population as one of the key factors in dealing with future pandemic developments, whatever their nature.
“All in all, it must be about keeping negative health and psychosocial consequences as low as possible on the one hand and, on the other hand, winning people over to support any measures in the context of the scenarios presented (again).
Both require successful communication based on trust in decision-makers." (askl)
