Is Russia turning off the gas for Germany too?
This is how the industry is preparing for the worst-case scenario
Created: 04/28/2022, 20:34
By: Fabian Hartmann
Russia has stopped gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria.
Can this also happen in Germany?
Simulation games are already running in industry.
Munich – What will happen if Russia no longer supplies Germany with gas in the future?
For a long time it sounded hypothetical.
But after the sudden stop of Russian gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, the question has become acute.
The Ukraine conflict fuels such considerations.
The security of supply in Germany is currently still guaranteed, said a spokeswoman for Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck (Greens) in Berlin.
But in the industry, the business games for the worst case have long since begun.
Explosive: At least in the short term, there are hardly any alternatives to Russian natural gas.
The
Handelsblatt
has taken a look at key industries.
Possible gas supply stop: This is how the energy companies are planning
Example energy industry.
The industry can still fall back on the German gas storage facilities, which are 33.5 percent full.
At the same time, talks are being held with gas-producing countries such as the Netherlands and Norway.
As the Düsseldorfer Wirtschaftsblatt further reports, politicians and companies are working on the procurement of four floating LNG terminals for Germany.
In the short term, however, only one thing helps: save energy.
Possible gas supply stop: This is how the metal industry is planning
After the chemical industry, the metal industry is the largest industrial consumer of natural gas in Germany.
Here, too, the companies are initially focusing on savings.
An attractive alternative to natural gas is hydrogen.
Only: It will take a few more years before a sufficiently large amount is available.
If there is a gas supply stop, this effectively means a production stop for the company.
Large furnaces are usually heated with natural gas.
And nothing works without the raw material.
How long will gas keep flowing through here?
Measuring instruments indicate the line pressure of pipelines of a gas storage facility.
© Axel Heimken/dpa
Possible gas supply stop: This is how the chemical companies are planning
Alarm bells are also ringing in the chemical industry.
The chemical association VCI has warned of far-reaching consequences of a possible failure of Russian energy supplies.
Then there would be “a severe recession with massive job losses”;
said the managing director of the chemical industry association, Wolfgang Große Entrup, to our editorial team.
According to
the Handelsblatt
many companies could absorb a decline of less than 50 percent in gas through internal measures.
However, if the gas supply falls by more than half, plants would have to be shut down on a large scale – with serious economic consequences.
Because: A breakdown in the chemical industry could lead to a chain reaction in the entire processing industry.
Then important precursors are missing.
Possible gas supply stop: This is how the retail trade is planning
The trade itself uses hardly any gas.
But: Many traders are concerned because in case of doubt they would not be classified as "systemically important" - and accordingly would only receive secondary energy.
Retail is also dependent on a functioning power supply.
As the Handelsblatt writes, many companies have already slightly lowered the temperature in the sales rooms.
However, this is only possible to a certain extent – for reasons of occupational safety and health.
Possible gas supply stop: That says an economist
Economists are also worried.
"Overnight it is not possible to replace Russian deliveries without economic activity in this country suffering significantly," said the head of economic activity at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Stefan Kooths, in an interview with
Merkur.de
.
However, it is currently difficult to estimate whether the worst case scenario will actually occur.
Russia is also dependent on business relations with the West.
But after the Russian gas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria were stopped, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is also concerned.
The SPD politician said on Thursday (April 28) in Tokyo that Germany must prepare for a similar turning point.
(fh)
