Ukraine war could escalate - Transnistria new key target for Russia?

Created: 04/28/2022Updated: 04/28/2022 05:25

By: Bedrettin Bölükbasi

In the Ukraine conflict, defection to pro-Russian Transnistria in Moldova is feared.

Russia blamed Ukraine for explosions.

Munich/Tiraspol - In the Ukraine conflict, the troops of Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin are attacking Ukrainian territory with increasing violence.

This map shows where the Ukraine war is raging.

Fighting is currently raging in the east of the country, where pro-Russian separatists have occupied much of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Together with the mercenaries, the Russian army is now advancing and wants to take complete control of the area.

The West is trying to counteract this with arms deliveries to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.

Of course, the main focus is on Ukraine - after all, the conflict is taking place there.

But now there are fears that the conflict will spill over beyond Ukraine's borders.

This is not about a possible Russian attack on a NATO state such as Poland or the Baltic countries, but about the breakaway pro-Russian region of Transnistria in Moldova on the Ukrainian border.

Several explosions and statements by the authorities suddenly drew attention to this region.

Ukraine war: Transnistria in focus after explosions - pro-Russian area on Ukrainian border

Transnistria, a narrow strip of just 4,100 square kilometers, has been a pro-Russian, internationally unrecognized sub-area in Moldova since the 1990s.

The predominantly Russian-speaking region between the Dniester River and the Ukrainian border seceded from Moldova after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In 1992, the separatists, supported by the Russian army, went to war with the pro-Western Moldovan government.

Hundreds of people were killed.

In 2006, in an internationally unrecognized referendum, 97.1 percent of voters voted in favor of Transnistria's annexation to Russia.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu rejects secession.

She demands the withdrawal of Russian troops on the border between Transnistria and Moldova.

Instead, an observer mission from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) should be stationed there.

Moscow rejects this proposal.

Transnistria, where Soviet symbols such as the hammer and sickle have long been ubiquitous, is home to a Russian military base and several large ammunition and weapons dumps.

Ukraine War: Explosions in Transnistria - Ministry, Soviet antennas and ammunition dumps

Huge explosions erupted in front of the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol, the capital of the de facto regime,

on Monday

The area around the area has been cordoned off and investigations have been launched.

Russian sources released footage of RPG-27 and RPG-22 rocket launchers on the asphalt in front of the ministry building.

The attacks were carried out with these launchers, it said.

Two more explosions finally followed the next day in the village of Mayak.

Two Soviet-era radio towers were damaged and put out of operation, the Interior Ministry of the breakaway region said.

A view of the damaged building of the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol.

© Uncredited/Ministry of Internal Affairs of Transnistria/AP/dpa

Both Russia and the pro-Russian regime blamed Ukraine for both incidents.

"Traces of these attacks lead to Ukraine," said the president of the de facto republic, Vadim Nikolayevich Krasnoselsky, adding: "I assume those who carried out these attacks want Transnistria to be involved in the Ukraine war." Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko also made a statement that could be construed as a threat of military attack if necessary.

"The Russian Federation wants to avoid a scenario where it has to intervene in the conflict in Transnistria." Rudenko described the situation in the region as "very alarming".

Today

, the Transnistrian Interior Ministry spoke out again, saying that the village of Kolbasna, home to a large Russian ammunition dump containing around 20,000 tons of Soviet-era ammunition, had come under fire.

The camp is guarded by Russian troops.

According to the Interior Ministry, it is considered the largest ammunition depot in Europe.

According to the ministry, drones from Ukraine had previously been sighted over the village during the night.

However, there were no dead or injured.

War in Ukraine: Kyiv fears Moscow's "false flag operation" in breakaway Transnistria

Contrary to Russian accusations, Ukraine once again sees the events in Transnistria as clear signs of a “false flag” operation by Moscow.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, accused Moscow of trying to destabilize the breakaway region.

"If Ukraine falls tomorrow, then Russian troops will show up in Chisinau," Podolyak said.

To prevent that, you have to work together.

After the incidents in Transnistria and the Russian statements, there is growing concern that the war in Ukraine will spread.

After all, Russian military officers make no secret of their intentions.

For example, Major General Rustam Minnekaev confirmed to the Russian agency TASS that the Donbass region and southern Ukraine were to be completely controlled and thus created access to Transnistria.

At the same time, he claimed that the Russian-speaking population in Moldova was being "oppressed".

This was one of the arguments used by Moscow to justify the invasion of Ukraine.

The same rhetoric is now appearing in relation to Moldova.

Ukraine war soon in Moldova?

- Russian officer reveals plans for Transnistria

Ever since the clashes began, the Ukraine war has not been going quite as easily for Russia as the Kremlin had hoped.

Ukrainian troops, bolstered by Western weapons, were able to hold their ground in Kyiv.

Russia had to withdraw military units from across the north of the country and regroup for another attack on eastern Ukraine.

Only after weeks of attacks did Putin's troops make progress in the Donbass and take most of the southeastern port city of Mariupol.

Even there, after countless attacks, Ukrainian soldiers are still in the Azovstal steelworks - albeit besieged and under difficult conditions.

One of Russia's other goals is to capture the Black Sea city of Odessa.

To this end, a larger military presence in Transnistria could prove central to Moscow.

According to the US broadcaster CNN, analysts assume that Russia wants to use the breakaway region as a logistics base for the Ukraine war.

In addition, the strategic position of Transnistria should also become important, as this would allow an attack on Odessa from a different front.

Such a move by Russia would significantly prolong and spread the war in Ukraine geographically.