Anti-globalization seems to have reached its peak in 2022. The Russian-Ukrainian war has triggered a series of sanctions: commodities fluctuated violently, and the trading system was affected; the dollar system was turned into a financial weapon, and capital returned to safety, causing capital market shocks.
"When the nest is overturned, there will be an egg." Reverse globalization is hurting every country, and it has become a key issue facing the recovery of the epidemic.
As an external economy, Hong Kong is extremely sensitive to changes in the world's politics and economy. It is one of the beneficiaries of globalization, but it also suffers from de-globalization.
How should Hong Kong fight the storm and turn the crisis into an opportunity?
The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2022 held in Hainan last week invited Chinese and foreign experts and scholars to discuss how to return to the global track of openness, inclusiveness and cooperation, and Hong Kong may be able to find the answer.
The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2022, held in Hainan last week, invited Chinese and foreign experts and scholars to discuss how to return to the track of globalization that is open, inclusive and cooperative.
(Xinhua News Agency)
International disorder, Asia bucks the tide
"If aliens from Mars attacked Earth, people would think that humanity would join forces to defeat them. However, when the 'alien' virus came, the international community did not cooperate enough." John, former dean of the Harvard Kennedy School of Government Joseph S. NYE used a vivid metaphor at the Boao Forum to describe the current state of "Failure" in international cooperation.
Ney pointed out that countries should join hands to fight against global crises such as the new crown epidemic and the climate crisis, but the reality is that "the leaders of the United States and China wasted this opportunity, and neither country realized that the exercise of power could turn into a 'positive-sum game'. ’.” Nei criticized that the performance of various countries in fighting the epidemic is depressing, each country puts its own interests first, and leaders mistakenly define “national interests” and only care about short-term benefits through zero-sum transactions, and pay little attention to passing Various institutions, alliances, and mutually beneficial relationships achieve long-term national interests.
Zheng Yongnian, Dean of the Qianhai Institute of International Affairs of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), expressed opposing views at the forum.
"International cooperation has indeed encountered difficulties, or even 'failed'." Zheng Yongnian changed the topic. "However, cooperation is still ongoing, and Asia is a model for current international cooperation." He emphasized that if the "US" is not considered, especially As a power outside the region, there is no element of conflict within Asia itself. "The word 'failure' is wrong in Asia, where there are cooperation mechanisms such as ASEAN and China, Japan and South Korea's '10+3' cooperation mechanism and the Regional Comprehensive Partnership Agreement. (RCEP), Boao Forum for Asia and other influential all-round cooperation achievements, as well as various forms of South-South cooperation, the majority of developing countries are increasingly aware of the importance of solidarity.”
Peace in Asia depends not only on the solidarity and cooperation of developing countries, but also on rational dialogue among the major economies in the region.
Zheng Yongnian shared his long-term observations on Sino-Japanese relations at the forum: In the early 1990s, Japan was the number one economy in Asia, and the West believed in the "Thucydides Trap", and because of Japan's history of aggression against China, everyone He believes that "China will definitely fight Japan when it rises"; however, the truth is, "Now our economy is more than three times that of Japan, but there is no war between the two countries - although the two countries are somewhat small Disputes, but on the whole it is very peaceful, and the Chinese government and the Japanese government have handled many historical and practical issues very rationally.”
Zheng Yongnian concluded with the view of Deng Xiaoping, the late top leader of the CCP and known as the standard-bearer of "reform and opening up": "The development of Asia has proved the correctness of the 'peace and development' advocated by Deng Xiaoping. 'Peace' and 'development' ’ is a mutually reinforcing relationship, without peace there can be no development, and development creates the foundation for peace.”
Last year, the ten ASEAN countries plus China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand signed the RCEP, and Hong Kong has submitted an application to join.
(Getty Images)
Anti-polarization and push for more international public goods
Although Asia is relatively "peaceful" with "development" as its primary goal, this "peace" is not without challenges.
Zheng Yongnian reminded that the United States is "polarizing" the international order. For example, in the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States will tie Russia to China. "The polarization of the international order has a very negative impact on our Asian region. Most Asian countries have a very negative impact. It has a very deep relationship with China and the United States. If the relationship between China and the United States is good, they have both security and development can be guaranteed; but if the relationship between China and the United States deteriorates, it deteriorates to something like today's Russia-EU relationship or Russia-U.S. Then all countries in Asia will be victims.” Zheng Yongnian emphasized that the polarization continues to deteriorate, and Asia will face Ukraine’s situation – “there is no security, let alone development.”
"Asian countries should have the ability to control their own future destiny, just as we have experienced common development in the past 40 years." Zheng Yongnian pointed out that one of the measures to combat the trend of "polarization" is to provide services on the basis of healthy competition. More international public goods.
The three ASEAN-based "10+1"s in Asia are typical examples: when China and ASEAN signed a free trade agreement to form the China-ASEAN "10+1" mechanism, the other two Northeast Asian economies, Japan and South Korea They also participated in the competition and formed their own "10+1" with ASEAN.
"These three '10+1' compete with each other. But what is the result of the competition? That is, on the basis of the three '10+1', a '10+3' is formed." Zheng Yongnian said, "10 +3" is a very good cooperation mechanism, "because it's better than anyone to do it worse", the "good results" of Asian countries all stem from this kind of healthy competition.
Zheng Yongnian therefore suggested that Asian powers such as China, Japan and India should continue to provide more international public goods in the Asian region.
Zheng Yongnian, professor of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) and dean of the Qianhai Institute of International Affairs, pointed out that Asia is a model of current international cooperation.
(file picture)
The world is to the right, Hong Kong should not blindly follow
Behind the "de-globalization" is the rise of right-wing politics such as conservatism and populism, which is the "right turn" of Western society.
Hong Kong, which has always relied on "internationalization" and hoped to be in line with the West, should never follow blindly.
Just as Deng Xiaoping's famous saying "without peace, there will be no development", Hong Kong should seek opportunities for peaceful cooperation and development in the Asian region.
The "de-globalization" brought about by right-wing politics is deeply hurting every Hong Konger.
Right now, the capital market of Hong Kong, an international financial center, can be described as "scorched earth". Since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war on February 20, the Hang Seng Index has plummeted all the way to a low of 18,415 points, which is lower than before the war (February 18). Even with a rebound in March, the recent index is still down more than 15% from before the war.
On the other hand, Hong Kong people's "public savings" MPF has also shrunk wildly with the volatility of the capital market. "MPF Ratings" recently published an article describing "April will be the worst in the first four months of MPF over the years. Monthly start”, and the estimated cumulative loss in 2022 has reached 140.6 billion Hong Kong dollars, which is equivalent to a loss of about 30,000 Hong Kong dollars per member. Assuming that members’ monthly savings rate is 10%, “equal to two years of savings disappearing.”
Therefore, for Hong Kong's economic development, "holding together to keep warm" is definitely more beneficial than "ratcheting swords".
In the past, Hong Kong's take-off was based on peace and cooperation, so when confronting the "rightward" trend of anti-globalization, Hong Kong must still insist on this.
If the Western society is determined to break this principle, Hong Kong may wish to consider shifting its focus to the East, focusing on emerging markets in Asia and the integration of the Asian region.
For example, Hong Kong can follow the country's footsteps and actively participate in the "Public Goods" in Asia such as the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP.
Feng Guojing, Advisory Committee Member of Boao Forum for Asia and Chairman of Fung Group, mentioned at the forum that the amount of goods and services between Hong Kong and RCEP countries accounts for nearly 60% of Hong Kong's total foreign trade volume. Hong Kong, which proposed to join, is expected to become a new member of RCEP in 18 months.
He also pointed out that the "made in RCEP" rules of origin have lowered the barriers to entry and helped SMEs to participate in regionally integrated investment and trade at an early stage.
Therefore, SAR government officials and stakeholders in the Hong Kong trade industry should prepare for the upcoming RCEP, and do publicity or provide incentives to encourage Hong Kong businessmen to seek opportunities among RCEP member countries and make good use of this cooperation.