Is a lockdown imminent in autumn?

Researchers make predictions

Created: 05/01/2022 05:07

By: Martina Lippl

Corona viruses dock onto human cells: this process changes when there is a mutation.

© imago images/Science Photo Library

Spring is here, summer is coming and Corona?

Anything goes when partying in clubs, in restaurants or on vacation.

What threatens us in autumn?

Researchers at the TU Berlin present a current prognosis.

Berlin – When it came to the corona pandemic, many of us just pressed the pause button.

After more than two years of the pandemic, the time to worry too much about new infections or other corona numbers seems to be over.

The omicron wave in Germany is ebbing away.

How will the corona pandemic develop in the coming months?

Does the situation still look as relaxed after the summer?

The team led by mobility researcher Kai Nagel from the TU Berlin has now published a current forecast.

Probable scenarios for the further course of the pandemic are simulated.

The prospects for autumn 2022 after the summer are rather sobering.

Especially when a mutation occurs that is more dangerous than the Delta variant.

The main points of the possible scenarios of the "MODUS-COVID report":

Corona autumn 2022 - These scenarios are possible

• Autumn Scenario 1

  : It stays with an Omicron-like variant.

  Then the model calculates an autumn wave that begins after the summer holidays.

  The burden on the healthcare system will be similar to what it is now.

  “The most favorable scenario” - according to the researchers' model calculations.

• Fall Scenario 2

  : A new variant coronavirus with an immune escape emerges.

  The wave would then begin with the emergence of the immune escape variant.

  If it is a variant with a mild course of the disease, as with Omicron, protection through vaccinations and infections would be significantly less effective.

  In such a scenario, the incidence would be about two to three times higher than in the current omicron wave.

• Autumn Scenario 3

  : A new variant of the immune escape with severe courses appears - "as dangerous as the delta variant".

  Then the incidence would be comparable to scenario 2. However, the hospitalization rate would be significantly higher.

  Between nine and thirteen times higher, according to the researchers' calculations.

  In this case, according to the calculations, the health system would reach its limit – there would be a risk of overload.

Corona autumn 2022: Please forecast the researchers

According to the research team, autumn scenarios 2 and 3 cannot be contained by a vaccination campaign alone.

In their model, the scientists assume that the previous vaccine has hardly any effect on transmission.

However, multiple boosters can increase the protective effect against severe disease progression.

"Our simulations show that such waves can be significantly contained through broad vaccination campaigns and the burden on the health system can be significantly reduced," says the Berlin researcher Kai Nagel in a summary.

"However, if a new mutation occurs that is as dangerous as the delta variant, our simulations show that even with such a vaccination campaign, the healthcare system will be subject to a much greater burden than is currently the case."

If the "rather unfavorable" autumn scenario 3 occurs, only a "utopian" vaccination rate of 100 percent, for everyone over the age of 5, could prevent the healthcare system from being overloaded.

In order to slow down the infection process quickly, clear countermeasures are necessary.

There would have to be measures such as the obligation to wear masks and contact restrictions as well as a test strategy.