Recovering ERC, a priority for La Moncloa

Nobody saw it coming.

With two approved Budgets and the risk that an early election would lead to a PP-Vox government, the most feared by a large majority of Congress, Pedro Sánchez had managed to convince almost everyone that this time he would exhaust the legislature in December 2023, with the Spanish presidency of the EU finished.

The war in Ukraine began to weaken some certainties, but the

, the alleged espionage of more than 60 Catalan and Basque independence leaders, has been a torpedo to the legislature that almost none of those consulted sees as definitive, but it is very serious.

The Government, which once again moved all its contacts to save a theoretically very simple vote —because it involved 6,000 million in aid and had no negative component— has shown that it can survive even without ERC —it already did so in the state extensions of alarm and in the labor reform, when the Republicans fell from the majority—but he does not want to force the machine any further.

Moncloa works hard to recover ERC as soon as possible, and she knows that for this she needs to give a "convincing" explanation of

.

This week will be decisive.

And in it there are two milestones that can break all the bridges or restore them and begin to sew up some wound.

On Wednesday, Margarita Robles will appear before the Defense Commission.

In La Moncloa they are very concerned with the tone that she can use there.

The one he used in the control session, which was

and ended in a head-on clash with the independentistas, broke the strategy of Pedro Sánchez and the Minister of the Presidency, Félix Bolaños, of trying to calm the waters with ERC.

The Republicans, who at that time were already hesitating between no and abstention with a lot of pressure in Catalonia, made it clear to the Government: after the control session it is not a sure thing.

The CNI before the official secrets commission

It remains to be seen what will happen on Wednesday, but the most relevant appointment in the Government's strategy that intends to start resolving the complex Pegasus issue comes just after.

On Thursday or Friday - there is no set date, but those days are handled - the director of the CNI, Paz Esteban, will face the decisive appointment: for the first time in her life she will go to the official secrets commission, which was constituted on Thursday with great controversy from the right, because all the groups will be there, including EH Bildu.

In that appearance he will give an account of the internal investigation of the CNI on the alleged espionage of Catalan leaders, and sources from the Executive point out that the idea is that it be "very convincing".

Words will not suffice for this.

He will have to bring papers.

The Executive has already even said that it is willing to declassify those that are necessary.

And among them will presumably be some very relevant ones: the judicial authorizations from the Supreme Court that would endorse the espionage of some pro-independence leaders, according to sources from the CNI to EL PAÍS, although they insist that the list was much lower than that indicated by the study. conducted by Citizen Lab, a group of cybersecurity experts from the University of Toronto (Canada).

Until now, the Government has only been able to disavow that report in corridor comments, but the director of the CNI will do so with data on the table and with documents to seek a convincing explanation, as the Executive insists.

The political problem is that the ERC and other groups are unlikely to be satisfied with that explanation.

The Republicans want political heads, especially that of Minister Robles.

And Sánchez, they point out in her surroundings, could not in any case hand over a Defense Minister, the heart of the State, after the independentistas have publicly requested it.

Sánchez and his hard core, led by Bolaños, the great negotiator, are convinced that ERC does not want to break up.

But Republicans aren't ruling anything out, publicly or privately.

"If there is no change in attitude regarding the alleged political espionage, in the form of resignations, it will be difficult to extend the legislature any longer," Marta Vilalta, ERC spokesperson, said on Friday.

In fact, the Government believes that Thursday's vote shows that even without ERC they could resist, although it is not plan A. “ERC cannot break.

They have opted for dialogue.

How are they going to explain it?

Are they going to open the door to Vox?

That would only help Junts, which has opted for the rupture, ”say government sources.

"He doesn't understand it," ERC sources reply.

“The political and media reality in Catalonia is very different.

People there are outraged.

They want a strong answer.

Time doesn't fix this."

Despite the obvious wear and tear, the government insists that they have not lost an important vote.

In fact, in this very critical week they have put forward three decrees, four bills, a bill and a presentation report, according to Rafael Simancas, who is in charge of highlighting, with the spokesman for the parliamentary group, Héctor Gómez, who moves in the shadows, led by Bolaños, to look for those 176 key votes.

The Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, tried it with the PP and offered to process it as a bill since Tuesday, but there was no way: the popular wanted a tax cut that, according to the minister, could put the deficit at risk and further spur inflation.

In La Moncloa they believe that the one who was really wrong was the PP, who opted for no.

By doing so, according to his vision, Alberto Núñez Feijóo begins to lose his image of a moderate to assimilate himself to the line of Pablo Casado and his not to everything.

The Executive would have been much more politically uncomfortable if the PP abstained, which would have become the savior of the decree and would have forced a division in the majority.

The popular, on the contrary, are convinced that the Government "has entered a dying phase."

They do not believe that it will fall, but they do see a slow wear, just what they need to consolidate Feijóo.

The PP does not believe that Sánchez will be able to fix the Pegasus problem shortly, which could also spread to Europe, because there is an investigation commission in the European Parliament that could also ask Spain for explanations.

The Executive has already foreseen this scenario and that is why it prepares that "convincing explanation".

This week without votes can therefore determine the entire course of the legislature, even more than the seven dramatic days that end today.

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