Does Russia want a world war?

What Lavrov's threat means

Created: 05/02/2022, 04:45

By: Nadja Austel

Vladimir Putin is fueling fears of a third world war with his war of aggression against Ukraine.

(Iconic image) © dpa/Rober Solsona

A military expert comments on Foreign Minister Lavrov's words on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

He had addressed the "real danger" of a new world war.

Moscow – Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov believes that the war in Ukraine could degenerate into a world war.

"The danger is serious, it is real, it should not be underestimated," he said on Monday (April 25), according to the Interfax news agency.

In many places, this statement was taken as a threat, commented military expert Thomas Wiegold on ntv.

Latvia's Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics wrote on Twitter: "If Russia threatens World War III, then that is a clear sign that Ukraine is successful." Only resolute and consistent action can restore international law and order, according to the chief diplomat of the Baltic EU and NATO state.

In neighboring Lithuania, President Gitanas Nauseda said: "We must not be intimidated by this rhetoric that has already become commonplace." The West should "not get involved in the game that Russia wants to force on us," Nauseda told the bns agency.

However, Lavrov's words on the Ukraine conflict were "partially misunderstood," according to expert Wiegold.

He did not threaten that Russia would start a third world war, rather he "expressed his concern that all states could slide [into a world war]".

In his view, Lavrov is well aware that this is something “that all sides want to avoid”.

Russia in the Ukraine war: "Don't take it too far"

However, in the past few weeks, Russia has repeatedly pointed out to NATO – sometimes more, sometimes less directly: “'Don't take it too far.

We have nuclear weapons.'” Russia must therefore at least be accused of having introduced the threat of nuclear weapons itself.

"In this respect, such a concern sounds a bit strange," Wiegold continues.

Lavrov had raised the risk of a third world war in connection with the discussion about NATO arms deliveries to Ukraine.

For its part, Russia sees these deliveries as legitimate reasons for attacks.

"Of course, these weapons will be a legitimate target for Russian forces," he said.

"How could it be otherwise," Lavrov continued.

"If Nato de facto goes to war with Russia via a proxy and arms this proxy, then you do in war what you have to do in war."

Russia: Weapons for Ukraine make Germany a war party?

Military expert Wiegold had already discussed such statements in the podcast "Sicherheitshalber" in the April 23 episode.

Here the question arose as to whether Germany was making itself a war veteran against Russia because of arms deliveries to Ukraine.

According to international law, the answer is an unequivocal "no", Wiegold clarified. 

In international law, the principle of neutrality normally applies: if two states are at war with each other, everyone else has to stay out.

However, there is one exception to this, and that is when the aggression clearly emanates from a country.

There has been "hardly a war for a long time where aggression is as clear as in the Russia-Ukraine war," explains interlocutor Carlo Masala from the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich. 

Russia-Ukraine War: Where is the 'red line' in Putin's mind?

The requirement of neutrality was thus rescinded.

There is no obligation to support Ukraine, but it is permitted under international law.

In addition, although the public discourse is currently talking about "heavy weapons" in contrast to "light weapons", these are not fixed terms and therefore there is no clear limit as to which weapons may be supplied, adds Frank Sauer, also from the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich, added.

A decision for or against arms deliveries, for or against heavy arms and also for or against a certain amount of arms is therefore a purely political one.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has drawn a line for its part, namely in the delivery of battle tanks and aircraft.

However, this is not anchored in international law.

Rather, one sees an imaginary "red line" in Putin's head.

(n / A)