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A solution
still has to be found for the
PCK refinery in Schwedt, Brandenburg.
An expropriation could soon be possible
Photo: Patrick Pleul / dpa
The oil embargo is approaching.
After Germany was always considered to be the brake on a European boycott of Russian oil in the past few weeks, Berlin is now changing its mind.
The German government supports European plans for an import ban on Russian oil as part of a sixth package of sanctions, EU diplomats said in Brussels at the weekend.
A corresponding decision by the EU has thus become much more likely.
On Sunday evening, Federal Foreign Minister
Annalena Baerbock
(Greens, 41) confirmed this on ARD and explained that they were now "prepared" to do without Russian oil for several years.
The reason for the change in course is that Germany has significantly reduced its dependence on Russian oil within a few weeks since the start of the Ukraine war, from 35 to just 12 percent.
Originally, the federal government had expected to halve the Russian share by the summer and phase it out by the end of the year.
According to Federal Economics Minister
Robert Habeck
(Greens, 52), there are now alternatives for two-thirds of Russian oil supplies.
Companies have already largely changed their contracts for oil deliveries for the western German refineries and for the eastern German site in Leuna in Saxony-Anhalt.
Rosneft does not part with Russian oil voluntarily
The problem is the remaining third, the supply of the PCK refinery in Schwedt, Brandenburg, which is majority operated by Rosneft.
She makes up the remaining 12 percent.
As a Russian state-owned company, Rosneft itself has no interest in getting rid of the Russian oil that flows from Siberia to its refinery via the Druzhba pipeline.
In order to make the site free of oil imports from Russia, another operator would have to be found.
The federal government has taken precautions for this with an amendment to the law that allows the expropriation of energy companies as a last resort.
The amendment could be decided by mid-May.
Even then, it could still be a while before non-Russian crude oil can be processed in the refinery.
It is true that Habeck set the course for an alternative supply of Schwedt on his trip to Poland.
In addition to oil deliveries via pipeline from the port of Rostock, the PCK refinery could obtain crude oil via the Polish port of Gdansk and from there via the Plock pipeline.
Habeck negotiated this with the Polish energy minister and described the progress as "very good".
According to Habeck, the supply from Poland should prevent the utilization of the refinery from falling below a critical lower limit necessary for operation.
However, the refinery's systems are geared towards the Russian crude oil of the Urals.
In order to process other varieties, they might have to be converted,
Hungary will "never" support the oil embargo
The situation is different in the Leuna refinery, which, like Schwedt, is connected to the Druzhba pipeline and is also calibrated to Siberian oil.
A possible technical conversion could take place there more quickly.
The operator, the French Total, has already changed its contracts for Leuna in the middle and at the end of the year.
As a result, this means that the end of dependence on Russian crude oil imports by late summer is realistic, as the Federal Ministry of Economics writes in its second progress report on energy security, which was published on Sunday.
"An oil embargo with a sufficient transitional period would now be manageable in Germany if prices rose."
With Germany's change of direction, an oil embargo at European level has become more likely.
The question is rather when the boycott could take effect.
Hungary, Slovakia and Italy are still slowing down.
Hungarian Chancellery Minister
Gergely Gulyás
(40) said on Sunday evening that Hungary would never support sanctions related to oil and gas supplies.
The country, like Slovakia, has few alternative supply options due to its Russia-specific petroleum infrastructure and landlocked status.
According to Gulyás, a conversion would take five years and "a lot of money".
As a rule, sanctions must be decided unanimously within the EU.
The EU Commission intends to present its proposal for a new package of sanctions against Russia by Wednesday at the latest, which should also include the introduction of an oil embargo.
According to insiders, the EU could possibly make exceptions for countries that are particularly dependent on imports.
In order to maintain unity among the 27 EU states, the EU Commission will possibly grant Hungary and Slovakia "an exception or a long transition period", say two EU representatives.
In any case, an oil embargo would probably be introduced in phases and would most likely not fully take effect until the beginning of next year.
Embargo could drive up oil prices
Even without an agreement at EU level, Germany could go ahead and impose an oil embargo on Russia in order not to further fill Putin's war chest.
The three Baltic EU countries Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have long since done so.
According to analysts, an oil embargo should lead to a rising oil price for the time being.
How strong this will be depends on the extent to which Russia finds buyers for its oil outside the EU.
In order to get rid of significantly larger quantities in China, Russia would have to pay a high price itself due to the lack of logistics.
At the same time, the Kremlin would benefit from the higher oil price.
The EU is therefore also discussing further measures that Russia could take with regard to oil.
One option advocated by some economists is a punitive tariff on Russian energy imports.
This could motivate the EU countries to reduce their imports, to look for savings and alternative suppliers, without having to abruptly stop all energy imports from Russia.
No matter which scenario ultimately occurs, consumers and industry will probably have to adjust to higher prices for mineral oil products.
dri with news agencies
