Department of Justice seeks $2.9 million from Manafort 1:13
(CNN) --
Former President Donald Trump's ability to pick winning candidates will be tested as the primary schedule gets under way this month with a series of contentious contests beginning Tuesday in Ohio. .
Most of this month's Republican candidates have tried to appeal to Trump during their campaigns, already a victory for the former president.
But clearing the field and navigating to a potential 2024 White House bid will depend in part on his ability to show that he remains the GOP's unrivaled leader.
The Ohio GOP Senate race is a prime example of how genuflection to the former president is fueling debate in many Republican primaries across the country.
Trump turned an already backwards race upside down by endorsing JD Vance, the author of "Hillbilly Elegy" and a longtime Trump critic who has since backed down.
But even after Trump endorsed Vance, describing him as "a warrior" against what the former president falsely calls a "rigged and stolen presidential election," several of Vance's Republican rivals have clamored to show they are more aligned with Trump's values. Trump.
That has been a common dynamic throughout many of this month's primaries.
Loyalty to Trump will play a big role in a race for the US House of Representatives in West Virginia next week, when Trump-backed candidate Rep. Alex Mooney will face Republican Rep. David McKinley. in the first incumbent vs. incumbent primary of the cycle.
Mooney endeared himself to Trump by objecting to Pennsylvania's electoral recount as Congress certified Joe Biden's victory in the general election.
McKinley voted to certify Biden's victory and backed the formation of an independent commission to investigate the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol, a failed effort in the Senate.
One of the most expensive senatorial matchups this year will take place in Pennsylvania on May 17.
Trump's candidate, famed surgeon Mehmet Oz, is in a heated race against, among others, David McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO, who has criticized Oz for the ideological inconsistencies he displayed throughout his television career.
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Finally, on May 24, Trump will get a chance to avenge Republican Georgia Governor Brian Kemp for rejecting his 2020 election schemes. The President lured former Sen. David Perdue into the race against the incumbent governor, sparking a intra-party brawl that many in the GOP deemed pointless.
May's races encapsulate the long shadow Trump's personal grievances continue to cast over his party and the extent to which he has trapped his Republican loyalists in a time warp while at the same time encouraging them to keep pushing his baseless claims. of 2020 voter fraud, at a time when many Americans have more pressing concerns.
Who is Mark Meadows, Trump's conservative ally in the spotlight
JD Vance, left, co-founder of Narya Capital Management LLC and Republican candidate for US Senate from Ohio, thanks former President Donald Trump for the official endorsement during the 'Save America' rally at the Ohio County Fairgrounds Delaware, Ohio, on Saturday, April 23, 2022. (Credit: Eli Hiller/Bloomberg)
Trump's chance in the midterms
Voters are struggling with rising gas and grocery prices as inflation pressures show no signs of abating.
There are new signs that the economy could be headed for a recession.
And President Joe Biden's approval rating clocked in at 41% in CNN's latest recent national polling average, a situation that has historically led to heavy losses in the House of Representatives for the party in the White House.
But Trump has never shown much concern about how his personal ambitions have derailed his party's opportunities to send messages more effectively, and 2022 has given him the opportunity to elect candidates who are as ruthless as he is to continue to cast doubt on the 2020 results, despite no evidence of widespread voter fraud.
The drive to please Trump and his base has contributed to the gravitational pull of right-wing Republican primary candidates, a vulnerability Democrats plan to capitalize on this fall as they seek to retain suburban and moderate voters Trump has alienated.
"These primaries are really crucial because it's the first test we have of Trump's endorsement and seeing if some potentially weaker candidates that he's endorsed could end up as the nominees," said Jessica Taylor, Senate and Governors editor at Cook Political. Reporting with Amy Walter.
"He's the one driving the narrative. In that way, he's already won. All of these candidates, regardless of whether they got Trump's endorsement or not, are feverishly trying to become the mold of Make America Great Agrain," Taylor added.
CNN Exclusive: New Text Messages Reveal Fox's Hannity Advising Trump White House
May 3: Heated primaries for the Ohio Senate
Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan has largely cemented his party's support behind his quest to run for Republican Sen. Rob Portman.
That has meant that most of the drama has been in the crowded Republican Senate primary, focusing in recent days on whether Vance deserved Trump's nod.
While the former president was willing to look past Vance's past criticism, the political arm of the Club for Growth is using those remarks as a weapon in its bid to boost former state treasurer Josh Mandel, even though those moves have angered to Trump.
A Club for Growth Action ad in the last week featured an old clip of Vance referring to himself as a "guy who will never be with Trump" as an incredulous viewer asks, "Has Trump seen this?"
and affirms that the former president "is making a mistake" with his support.
(Vance has gone out of his way to address converting him on the campaign trail, asking voters to give him credit for admitting a mistake.)
Before Trump entered the race, Mandel, who served in the Marine Corps Reserve, and Mike Gibbons, a wealthy self-funded businessman, seemed poised to lead the field: Their own rivalry became so heated that they appeared at the verge of beatings in a debate.
Mandel has repeatedly made the false claim that Trump was robbed of the 2020 election, telling reporters on Friday that "we should audit [the election results of] every state in the nation, including the ones Trump won."
(Credit: Joshua A. Bickel/Columbus Dispatch)
But he is leaning on other conservative figures to help carry his campaign to the finish line, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
Campaigning with Mandel in Ohio this weekend, Cruz mocked candidates who "have Donald Trump tattooed on their butts" and said voters should consider the consistency of candidates' registrations as conservative.
In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Mike DeWine leads his opponents in the Republican primary, according to recent polls, even though he has been a frequent target of the pro-Trump wing of his party.
The more restrictive approach DeWine took to Covid-19 precautions, compared to other Republican governors, prompted some conservatives and Trump to criticize DeWine at a recent rally in the state as "terrible."
But Trump has not endorsed the race.
Former Rep. Jim Renacci, who lost to Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in the 2018 Senate race, and farmer Joe Blystone, who has criticized COVID mask and vaccination mandates, as well as what he sees as government overreach of DeWine, seem to be fragmenting.
CNN Exclusive: New Text Messages Reveal Fox's Hannity Advising Trump White House
May 10: A controversial Trump endorsement in Nebraska
Trump has a history of endorsing troublesome candidates who have caused his party headaches, a dynamic at play in Nebraska's gubernatorial primary on May 10.
Trump has endorsed Charles Herbster, a rancher and businessman, and supported him even after the Nebraska Examiner reported in mid-April that seven women, including Republican state Sen. Julie Slama, had accused Herbster of groping them. at political events or beauty pageants, with an additional woman accusing him of forcibly kissing her.
In six cases, at least one witness corroborated the women's accusations, the publication reported.
Herbster has denied the allegations, calling them "100% false."
Charles Herbster speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference on February 27, 2022, in Orlando, Florida.
Republican Governor Pete Ricketts, who had urged Trump to stay out of the race, endorsed one of Herbster's Republican rivals, Jim Pillen, a pig farmer and veterinarian who sits on the Board of Regents at the University of Nebraska.
Ricketts described the allegations as "beyond horrific" and said Herbster should "seek treatment."
At a pro-Herbster rally Sunday night, Trump claimed that Herbster was being "grossly maligned."
"I stand up for people when I know they're good — he's a good man," Trump said, following his old pattern of dismissing sexual harassment and assault allegations, including those brought against him in his 2016 campaign when he said they were "all fake things" and he claimed that he was "a victim".
May 17: Close races for Trump candidates in Pennsylvania and North Carolina
The race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania is on track to become one of the most expensive in the country, as perennial swing-state status makes that seat among the most likely to move from Republican to Democrat control.
Most of the spending is on the side of the Republican Party.
As Oz and McCormick and their outside allies have poured their resources into TV ads, the run passed the $100 million mark at the end of April.
Trump is scheduled to appear on Oz's behalf at a rally next weekend.
And in a remarkable display of his thrall to his party, most Republican candidates said in a recent debate that it was too soon for his party to make it out of the 2020 election.
McCormick hired a list of former Trump advisers and aggressively sought their endorsement, lavishing praise on Trump-era policies as he and his allies have portrayed Oz as a RINO, or "Republican in name only."
One of McCormick's recent ads argues that the former president endorsed the wrong person by endorsing a celebrity doctor who praised figures reviled by conservatives, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and top adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci. Biden's doctors.
Democrats have a competitive race of their own between Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, Rep. Conor Lamb and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta.
Fetterman has become the candidate to beat by virtue of his fundraising and his name recognition throughout the state.
Lamb, a centrist who has argued his past victories in Republican-leaning districts demonstrate his ability to win statewide, has said Fetterman's more progressive profile would make him too much of a risk in the general election. .
Despite those attacks, Fetterman told CNN that he sees no need to moderate his views, which include advocating for more gun control, access to abortion and universal health care,
ANALYSIS |
Trump's army targets 2022 by promoting his lies about the election
Rep. Ted Budd, left, reacts as he takes the stage with Trump in North Carolina.
The other main contest in the Senate on May 17 is the race to replace retiring Sen. Richard Burr in North Carolina, where Trump endorsed Rep. Ted Budd, who backed the former president's 2020 election maneuvering by voting to throw out the results. elections in Arizona and Pennsylvania, in January 2021.
Trump's endorsement nearly a year ago failed to clear the field for Budd, who has been buoyed by the Club for Growth Action that runs ads critical of former Gov. Pat McCrory.
McCrory, in turn, accused Budd of being "reckless" with his words, running a misleading ad centered on Budd's comments about Russian President Vladimir Putin, and attempting to link him in a recent digital ad to Republican Rep. Madison Cawthorn. , a polarizing figure in North Carolina politics.
Cheri Beasley, the first black woman to lead the North Carolina Supreme Court as president, is heavily favored by the Democratic side.
Across the country, Trump also weighed in on the May 17 infighting in the Idaho gubernatorial race, backing Lieutenant Governor Janice McGeachin in her main challenge to Gov. Brad Little.
Showing a penchant for Trump-style theatrics, McGeachin briefly captured national attention last year by using Little's absence from the state to issue an executive order banning mask mandates.
(Shortly later, she repealed the order, calling it a "self-serving political stunt.")
In October, Little accused McGeachin of trying to deploy the state National Guard to the US-Mexico border while she was in the state visiting the border.
Despite Trump's "complete and total endorsement," McGeachin doesn't appear to have gained much traction.
May 24: Trump tries to avenge his defeat in Georgia
Trump's defeat in Georgia has fueled his involvement in the state, specifically his zeal to unseat Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who rejected Trump's request that he "find" more than 11,000 votes to overturn Trump's victory. Biden in the state.
Trump has endorsed Republican Rep. Jody Hice, who embraced her election conspiracies, against him.
Georgia became the first state where the Trump-affiliated PAC show Make America Great Again, Again! extended its efforts to the airwaves, according to data from AdImpact.
His ad promoted both Perdue, Trump's pick for governor, and former NFL star Herschel Walker, who is backed by both Trump and Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, for the GOP to take on. Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock.
Former Sen. David Perdue, whom Trump has endorsed for governor, speaks at a campaign event on March 29, 2022, in Marietta, Georgia.
While Trump's commitment to Walker helped keep other top Republicans out of the Senate race, it's not clear his endorsement of Perdue had the desired effect.
The former senator's efforts to embolden Trump loyalists by arguing that Kemp could have done more to challenge the election results have so far not proven to be a winning strategy.
Kemp, who won major conservative victories on legislation restricting abortion and making it legal for most Georgians to carry a concealed firearm without a license, has been endorsed by groups like the Republican Governors Association, which ran ads promoting him as a "proven conservative leader".
As a former secretary of state, he has refuted Perdue's attacks by arguing that he did not have the authority to alter the election results.
Kemp noted in a debate in late April that he "will not be lectured by someone who lost his last election," referring to Perdue's loss to Democrat Jon Ossoff in the January 2021 runoff.
Voters in Alabama also go to the polls on May 24, but Trump is no longer directly involved in the Republican Senate primary there after he rescinded his endorsement of Republican Rep. Mo Brooks, once one of his most loyal lieutenants in on Capitol Hill, angered by both the congressman's tumultuous campaign and his claim that voters should put the 2020 election behind them.
Two of Brooks's rivals to replace retiring GOP Sen. Richard Shelby, Shelby's former aide Katie Britt and Mike Durant, a veteran and aerospace executive, have led the Republican field.
Donald Trump's endorsement record
Many of the Republicans running in the May primaries have filed as Trump's candidates, but this month's races will be the first test of whether Trump's endorsement gambles pay off in victories.
But Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist and CNN contributor, said that even if the former president ends up with a mixed record, he's likely to take what he called Trump's traditional stance that "everything good that happens, I'm responsible." and everything bad that happens "is someone else's fault."
As general election contests take shape, Jennings predicted that the focus on Trump's 2020 election obsessions will begin to fade as connecting with voters' economic concerns becomes the primary goal of the GOP.
"My personal opinion is that if you're not talking about inflation and gas prices and the economy and crime and schools in the fall, you're an idiot," he said.
"It's obvious what people are worried about ... Making the race a referendum on Biden on those issues."
midterm elections
