Ukraine war: May 9th as a "turning point" - Putin is to change crucial military strategy
Created: 05/02/2022 05:01
By: Tobias Utz
Russia's President Putin could announce a new military mobilization on May 9, "Victory Day".
Experts largely agree.
MOSCOW – May 9, a Monday, plays a crucial role in Vladimir Putin's war plans.
On this date, the Kremlin celebrates the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, "Victory Day".
To mark this, soldiers march in Moscow and a pompous military parade takes place.
On that Monday, Putin would probably be happy to announce another victory: in the Ukraine war.
Given that Russia's offensive in Donbass is progressing slowly, this scenario is becoming increasingly unlikely.
That's why experts are now assuming that Putin will change his strategy.
Experts from the think tank Center for European Political Analysis predict in a report that on May 9 Russia will mobilize new troops for the war.
“Russia's military believes it is a mistake to limit the goals of the war.
They argue that Russia isn't fighting Ukraine, it's NATO," the analysis reads.
"Victory Day" on May 9: is Vladimir Putin changing his strategy in the Ukraine war?
Experts from the Royal United Services Institute argue similarly.
The latest study states: "May 9 has changed from a deadline for victory into the beginning of a huge mobilization." The sluggish Donbass offensive calls for a larger army strength.
In this context, the experts speak of a "turning point" in the Ukraine war: "May 9 could be the day on which the Russian leadership no longer speaks of a 'military special operation', but of 'war'."
What is Vladimir Putin planning?
Is Russia's president allowing the Ukraine war to escalate further by mobilizing on May 9?
© Vladimir Astapkovich/dpa
Michael Mazarr from the Rand Corporation think tank also shares the assessment of the experts mentioned.
“It could be threatening gestures by the Russians.
But it could also be true and Putin is actually changing course.
The risk of such a scenario cannot be ignored," Mazarr said in a statement.
In the course of Alexander Dwornikov's appointment as the new supreme commander of the Russian army in the Ukraine war, it became known that Putin had proclaimed "Victory Day" as the target date for the invasion.
This emerged, among other things, from an internal NATO briefing.
It said, among other things: "The Russian military leadership is under enormous political pressure to finally achieve a military breakthrough in Ukraine, which can be presented as a victory at the parade on May 9." (tu)