Increase in corona numbers in South Africa: the mutations are so threatening for Germany

The two omicron subtypes BA.4 and BA.5 are keeping South Africa in suspense - they are currently causing an increase in the number of infections there.

How is the situation in Germany?

Cape Town/Berlin – While the daily number of new infections with the corona virus in Germany is falling steadily, a different trend can be seen in South Africa.

Since around mid-April, the number of infections there has been rising again significantly.

Responsible for this: the two omicron subtypes BA.4 and BA.5.

It was only in mid-April that the WHO classified the two mutations in the omicron variant as "worrying" and put them on the watch list.

And since then, the reported new infections in South Africa have been increasing again.

They are currently around 5,000 to 6,000 new infections per day – and the trend is rising.

Corona in South Africa: The situation had eased again

Since the record values ​​in December of almost 40,000 cases per day, the situation has calmed down since the end of January and the numbers have leveled off at around 1000 new cases per day.

Some scientists now even see the country at the beginning of a new wave of infections, and Health Minister Joe Phaahla is also concerned.

However, there also seems to be good news.

Because: So far, the increasing number of infections has not been reflected either in the occupancy of the hospitals or in the deaths.

Even if this can initially calm you down, the German virologist Christian Drosten also warns that this could still change.

Drosten writes on Twitter: "Fortunately, there has been no impact on hospital admissions in South Africa so far, but that could happen in the next two weeks."

Corona: omicron subtypes BA.4 and BA.5

• Classification by the WHO as a “variant of concern”

• Characteristics: L452R mutation in the spike protein (already detected in Delta)

• First discovery: South Africa

• Other occurrences: BA.4 in Denmark, Botswana, England and Scotland;

  RKI lists BA.4 with 0 percent and BA.5 with 0.1 percent in Germany

Omicron subtypes BA.4 and BA.5 rather harmless for Germany

Drosten provides the following justification for the exponential increase in the numbers in South Africa: The L452R mutation in the spike protein could give the virus a so-called immune escape advantage, especially in a population in which there was no BA.2 wave, for example in South Africa.

Immune escape means that the new mutation in the virus is able to bypass the body's immune response.

The defenses that the body has previously formed through vaccination or infection are thus tricked.

According to Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach, this immune escape is also the reason why an infection with the omicron variant that has already been overcome offers “no or little protection” against future infections with BA.4 and BA.5.

Lauterbach therefore also sees the risk of a new wave of infections in autumn.

But preparations are being made for this “now”.

The Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 studies suggest that previous Omicron infections may provide little or no protection from infection.

This increases the probability that there will be new waves of infection in autumn.

We are already preparing for this.

https://t.co/VTzbwuG3u4

— Prof. Karl Lauterbach (@Karl_Lauterbach) April 29, 2022

Mutation of omicron variant BA.2 active in USA

According to the RKI, the BA.2 variant is currently still predominant in Germany with 96 percent.

Because of this and because of the rising temperatures, Drosten initially sees no increase in the number of infections in Germany.

However, as he told

, he already expects "BA.4 and BA.5 to increase in number, but within an overall number that is very low." So South Africa can initially only be seen as a possible warning, however the situation on site cannot be transferred one-to-one to Germany.

So while South Africa is struggling with BA.4 and BA.5, an increasingly common mutation of the BA.2 variant is being reported in the USA and India.

The mutation with the name BA.2.12.1 also carries the L452R mutation, which is why, according to Drosten, an “increase in virulence”, i.e. a higher ability to be infected, can be observed.

In some areas there are already more hospital admissions.

According to virologist Drosten, however, in a “still reassuringly low” total number.

Nevertheless, the development must be monitored further.