NATO start in two weeks?

Secret service warns Sweden – researchers explain scenarios for cyber attacks

Created: 05/05/2022 05:23

By: Florian Naumann

Sanna Marin (Finland, left) and Magdalena Andersson (Sweden, right) on Tuesday with Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Meseberg.

© John MacDougall/AFP

Once again there is talk of a NATO lightning start for Sweden and Finland.

In Stockholm, however, there is also growing concern about Russian disruptive fire.

One researcher sees rather mild scenarios.

Stockholm/Meseberg – Finland and Sweden are apparently on the way to joining NATO.

According to experts, however, it could still be rocky: The Swedish domestic secret service Säkerhetspolis (Säpo) warns of disruptive fire from Moscow.

The aim could be to change Sweden's attitude, Säpo boss Charlotte von Essen announced at the end of April.

Von Essen did not explain in detail what the Swedes have to prepare for.

The Kremlin could try to influence the media, opinion leaders and decision-makers in different ways, it said.

Expert David Lindahl from the Swedish Defense Research Institute has now become clearer: Last but not least, he considers cyber attacks to be conceivable.

In an interview with the public broadcaster SVT, Lindahl recommended that the population stock up "for 72 hours" - but at the same time dampened fears of excessive consequences.

Sweden in NATO?

Interfering fire from Russia possible – expert gives an assessment

"We have to assume that the power will fail, that the water will be contaminated or that we will have to go without the Internet for a while," explained the researcher and engineer.

Comparatively likely scenarios are also malfunctions at ATMs or in shops;

presumably this will not affect entire sectors.

There is no need to panic, Lindahl said at SVT.

The "absolutely worst" known consequences of cyber attacks are comparable to the consequences of a "violent storm".

"I don't believe in a 'cyber collapse' of society," he emphasized. "If at all, I believe in irritation and financial costs." A good two weeks ago, other Swedish experts had also given themselves in the face of threats from the Kremlin.

They, too, were more likely to expect symbolic acts or attacks in cyberspace.

Defamation campaigns against Swedish celebrities such as the deceased children's book author Astrid Lindgren were recently launched in Russia.

"It depends on whether they think they can deter us from trying to join NATO by scaring us, or whether they think that scaring us will make it more likely."

Researcher David Lindahl on the question of the likelihood of Russian cyber attacks on Sweden

According to Lindahl, the basic probability of Russian cyber attacks is already difficult to assess.

"It depends on whether they believe that they can deter us from joining NATO by frightening us, or whether they believe that frightening us will make accession more likely," the expert said.

As early as 2017, the research institute advocated a kind of “cyber defense” made up of volunteers as a preparatory measure against attacks in digital space.

Sweden and Finland: on course for NATO in the Ukraine conflict – lightning start reports from Norway

The Norwegian tabloid

reported, citing diplomatic circles, that the accession process for Sweden and Finland could officially become a reality in just two weeks.

Then formal membership applications and invitations are conceivable.

The staff of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is working with the NATO member countries to make the process as quick as possible.

At the same time, it is expected that a formal negotiation meeting will take place in each country in order to clarify details.

Subsequently, however, the official approval of all 30 NATO countries would be required for accession.

According to the report, this process could take months.

Norway's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre was optimistic

in an interview with

If the NATO Council welcomes Sweden and Finland and the big countries do so with vigour, a foundation has been laid, he said.

Norway's support is certain, Gahr Støre hinted.

Norway is a founding member of NATO.

The neighboring Scandinavian countries Finland and Sweden, on the other hand, stayed away from the military alliance for a long time out of conviction.

Recently, however, the mood in Stockholm and Helsinki has changed.

The two states could now become NATO members number 31 and 32.

The most recent additions were previously North Macedonia in early 2020 and Montenegro in spring 2017.

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