When Russia entered Ukraine on February 24, it was widely expected that the war would end as quickly as the first Gulf War in 1990.
Afterwards, the Russian army, who had been fighting for more than a month but was unable to capture the big city, learned a lesson, withdrew from the northern front to attack Kyiv, appointed famous generals to coordinate the war against Ukraine, and concentrated most of its troops in the Donbass of Udon.
At this point, it was expected that Russia would produce a phased victory before the May 9 Victory Day parade on Red Square.
However, the Victory Day is only a week away, and the Russian army on the Donbas battlefield can only move forward slowly. All signs show that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will turn into a protracted war for months or even years.
Germany has decided to provide Ukraine with heavy weapons, including its Cheetah anti-aircraft tanks.
(Wikimedia Commons)
A few days ago, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (Jens Stoltenberg) said that NATO should prepare for the long-term.
The $33 billion aid plan proposed by the Biden administration last week also presupposes that it will continue to support Ukraine's deployment for five more months in the future in terms of armaments, intelligence, finance, and humanity.
Germany has so far reduced its dependence on Russian oil from 35% before the war to 12%, and has also dropped its stance against sanctions. The European Union may announce a phased embargo on Russian oil this week.
Of course, Russia does not want the war to continue to be prolonged, but when it fails to produce a phased victory, it can only prepare for a quick victory and a protracted battle.
On the other hand, in addition to Russia stepping up its offensive and preparing for a long-term battle, Europe and the United States have also begun to put forward larger strategic goals other than helping Ukraine’s defense, seeing the sluggish advance of the Russian army.
In the midst of a losing battle, the final result is increasingly unpredictable...
For details, please read the 315th issue of "Hong Kong 01" Electronic Weekly (May 3, 2022) " Russian-
Ukrainian conflict may fall into a protracted war of attrition
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