Why abortion will be key for Democratic and Republican candidates in the midterm elections

By Natasha Korecki and Peter Nicholas -

The leaked Supreme Court draft that would overturn constitutional abortion protections is opening a new front in the country's competitive midterm elections later this year, with both parties trying to portray themselves as woefully out of step with the beliefs of the voters.

With control of Congress on the line, both Democrats and Republicans are trying to put opposing candidates on the defensive, forcing them into difficult positions that would not pay off in November's competitive general election.

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wade]

Some of the biggest groups funding gubernatorial and Senate races are racing to fine-tune their messages.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has distributed a memorandum this week urging Republican Party (GOP) candidates to act as “sympathy and consensus builders” and cast Democrats as extremists.

One front is Nevada, where the right to abortion has limited protection in state law.

In a new campaign memo first obtained by our sister network NBC News, Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak's campaign exposes abortion as a top issue for voters heading into November.

"An anti-abortion governor and legislature could undo or undermine pro-abortion policies ... that are not codified in Nevada law," the memo says, suggesting a Republican could move state money away from the centers. health or contraceptives.

The message is heavily focused on Joe Lombardo, the Republican gubernatorial candidate whom former President Donald Trump has supported in a 15-party primary scheduled for June 14.

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On Thursday, activists supporting Sisolak are scheduled to hold a news conference and press Lombardo, the Clark County sheriff, to detail his opposition to abortion, including whether he would seek to rescind funding for abortion care centers. if chosen.

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“We would like to know where Joe Lombardo stands,” said Caroline Mello Roberson, Southwest regional director for NARAL Pro-Choice America, a group that opposes abortion restrictions.

“On the one hand it says that it is 'pro-life', but that it is not going to end the laws in force here.

They seem to be in conflict.

As the head of the state, we want to know what his political position is,” she insisted.

In a statement to NBC News, Lombardo's campaign accused Sisolak of trying to interfere in the GOP primary because Lombardo has been leading in recent polls, adding that "abortion policy is already covered by Nevada law." Voters put it into law and only they can change it," he said.

In Michigan, strategists for Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer see an opportunity to present her as the last defense against the so-called

, which would impose criminal penalties on women who have abortions in the state if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. .

Wade.

Ditto for Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers, who, like Whitmer, must contend with a Republican-controlled legislature.

"There's no meaningless racing anymore," said Heather Colburn, a Wisconsin strategist who advises Whitmer.

“Once we start to return these rights to the states, who runs those states and the legislative bodies is crucial,” she opined.

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As Democrats try to portray GOP candidates as hostile to women's reproductive rights, Republicans see a new opportunity to put Democrats on the defensive by pressing them with a difficult question:

They believe that a Democratic Party that has consistently moved to the left on abortion is at odds with the general population.

If Democratic candidates try to appease their liberal base by rejecting many, if not all, restrictions on abortion, they risk losing votes in the general election, Republicans argue.

Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, leaves the Pennington Health Sciences Center at Truckee Meadows Community College in Reno, Nev., Wednesday, March 9, 2022.Rich Pedroncelli/AP

Democrats, for their part, argue otherwise, arguing that Republicans in battleground states will have to specify what they support: a ban on abortion six weeks after conception?

A bill that prohibits abortion once the fetal heartbeat is detected?

Any response could alienate a swath of voters in November. 

“Every Republican needs to have an answer on the following questions: Will you support a federal law for a six-week ban?

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What is [Georgia Republican Senate candidate] Herschel Walker going to say?

What will they say in Nevada?

What will they do in New Hampshire?” said Pete Giangreco, a national Democratic strategist.

"I could really take these races from being tied to being 1, 2, 3, 4 point races," he added.

Polls suggest many Americans favor restrictions, depending on how far along a woman's pregnancy is.

A Wall Street Journal poll published last month, for example, found that a plurality wants to ban abortion after 15 weeks unless the woman's health is in danger.

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"Pro-life Republicans can use the abortion issue to their advantage

," said John McLaughlin, a pollster for former President Donald Trump.

Republican strategists are already highlighting cases where Democrats do not say explicitly whether they would ban abortion even in late pregnancy.

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“Democratic politicians are totally out of the mainstream when it comes to unlimited, taxpayer-funded abortion,” said Nathan Brand, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee.

“More than 80% of Americans support limits on abortion, but Democrats from top to bottom cannot name a single limit they would support,” he added.

The Republican National Committee referred to an interview aired Wednesday on our sister network NBC News' Meet the Press Daily, in which host Chuck Todd asked newly nominated Ohio Democratic nominee Nan Whaley if there should be limits legal for a woman to have an abortion.

Whaley did not mention any in her response.

Instead, she noted that the decision should be made by the women, their families and their doctors.

“It is a very personal and difficult decision for women.

I don't think the government should intervene in it,” she opined.

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Katie Hobbs, a Democratic candidate for governor in Arizona, gave a similar response about a new state law banning abortions after 15 weeks.

Asked if that was an appropriate period of time or if it should be longer, Hobbs said: "Abortion is a personal decision between a woman and her family and her doctor, and that is something that needs to be discussed in the courtroom. medical exam — not by politicians.

A NARAL-Pro Choice America poll this year in Arizona found that abortion was an issue that would drive Democrats to the polls.

There is no guarantee that the GOP's strategy on abortion will succeed and that voters will be put off by a Democratic candidate's view of the exact point at which a pregnancy should be carried to term.

.

A poll conducted by NBC News in August found that 54% of respondents believed that abortion should be legal "always" or "most of the time."

Since the Supreme Court appears poised to overturn Roe v.

Wade, candidates running in states that are more accepting of abortion rights are expected to do well on Election Day, according to analysts.

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That would bode well for Sen. Maggie Hassan, a Democrat facing a tough re-election campaign in the battleground state of New Hampshire.

Her support for abortion rights could give her candidacy a needed boost.

"This is an issue that helps her, in a blue state where she's in trouble," said Sarah Longwell, a Republican anti-Trump strategist who holds regular focus groups with voters.