“This is an unprecedented crisis for the continent.
During a press conference in Geneva, Switzerland, Raymond Gilpin made a deliberately alarming speech.
The chief economist of UNDP Africa (United Nations Development Programme) believes that the war in Ukraine, which is superimposed on the sanctions imposed on Russia, is seriously affecting African countries already struggling with the Covid-19 pandemic. and the climate emergency.
Raymond Gilpin, by videoconference from New York, spoke of the surge in inflation, particularly in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Sierra Leone.
The economist says he expects “a decline in economic growth on the continent, which is expected to increase slightly this year after Covid, as export growth is going to be around 4%, not 8.3% as expected” .
Violent protests and riots
Consequences: Millions of households across the continent, which has a majority of the world's poorest countries, will struggle financially, which can fuel social anger.
"We see the possibility of tensions in hotspots like the Sahel, parts of central Africa and the Horn of Africa," he warns.
Tensions, especially in urban areas, low-income communities, could boil over and lead to violent protests and riots,” especially in countries holding elections this year or next.
Especially since many African countries depended for food on Russia and Ukraine, two major exporters of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower oil.
“In some African countries, up to 80% of the wheat came from Russia and Ukraine.
With the disruptions happening now, there is an urgent situation materializing,” insisted UN Under-Secretary-General Ahunna Eziakonwa.
“Where are these countries turning overnight for commodities that, I remind you, are subsistence commodities?
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Moreover, Ahunna Eziakonwa believes that borrowing rates in Africa are too high.
“They are higher than anywhere else in the world.
And in terms of debt, a number of countries are already in distress,” such as heavily indebted Ghana.
According to her, “multilateral institutions must make an effort to really think about a debt restructuring scenario”.