While the clouds seem to be gathering over world trade at the start of 2022, the Suez Canal is in almost insolent good health in view of the economic crisis that Egypt is currently experiencing, with revenues that would have "
increased 13.6%
” according to Oussama Rabie, president of the Canal Authority (SCA).
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A major axis of globalization
This increase, which allows the SCA to post monthly revenues of $605 million, must be placed in a specific context.
Indeed, a year ago, the
Ever Given
, a 400-meter-long container ship belonging to the Evergreen company, ran aground diagonally along the Canal, thus blocking all maritime activity on the March 23 to 29, 2021. According to the SCA, Egypt would have lost between 12 and 15 million dollars a day since 425 ships were stranded on both sides of the Canal.
Read alsoSuez Canal: global imbroglio around the “Ever Given”
Due to its centrality within the global economic environment, the Suez Canal is therefore fully exposed to geopolitical and political upheavals.
More than 190 km long, linking the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, the heir to the "
canal of the pharaohs
" is thus the longest maritime canal in the world, welcoming increasingly large container ships.
The "
net payload per year
", i.e. the total weight of goods declared per year, increased from 281,305 to 1,041,576 tonnes between 1980 and 2017. With the inauguration of the "
New Suez Canal
" in August 2015, it thus represented 10% of world maritime transport in 2021.
An increase in rights of way
Apart from the catch-up effect, how can this rise, which is happening in the heart of a particularly uncertain environment marked by the War in Ukraine, be explained?
This is mainly due to a decision taken by the SCA on March 1, 2022, to increase the transit fees for merchant ships passing through the Canal.
“
The [SCA] has decided to align the Canal's rights of way with the price of oil
,” explains Paul Tourret, doctor of geography and director of ISEMAR in Saint-Nazaire.
Thus, the higher the price of oil, the more it financially benefits "
Suez
" given that "
all the ships will have to go through the Canal because it will always be cheaper for a container ship to take this route than to circumnavigate Africa, even if the rights of passage increase significantly
” adds Paul Tourret.
Read alsoThe Suez Canal, lifeline and pride of Egypt
Thus, the Canal authorities are taking advantage of the sharp increase in oil prices [a tonne of heavy fuel oil rose from €312.3 to €558.5 between March 2021 and March 2022] to start an increase in its transit rights.
Indeed, the Suez Canal is a real shortcut for merchant ships, given that it takes 24 days to reach the Persian Gulf from London via the Cape of Good Hope, compared to 14 via Egypt.
Thus, knowing that a shipping company spends 4 million euros on fuel passing through southern Africa against 2.3 million euros if it passes through Suez, it will always be more profitable, financially, to take the Egyptian "
shortcut
", even if we add the SCA's 700,000 dollars [663,558 euros] right of way.
"
The Canal is Egypt's second source of income, with more than 5.6 billion dollars per year,
” explains Paul Tourret.
Limited risks of destabilization
However, the whole question remains whether the Canal will succeed in ensuring, in the long term, such substantial revenues for the Egyptian authorities with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine last February, which constitutes a risk of
major "
disintegration
". long-term international trade, according to this WTO report, or the confinements in China.
Read alsoSuez Canal blocked: “Europeans find themselves dependent on a world of which they are no longer the center”
“
Despite the existence of all of these risks, the Canal's maritime flow should not really fade this year thanks to a game of musical chairs between Russia's European and Asian customers
” believes Paul Tourret.
Indeed, while the United States and Europe have initiated a series of sanctions against Russia, including the implementation of an embargo on its oil and gas products, the latter is seeking to diversify its trading partners and outlets .
This is the famous “
turn towards Asia
” initiated by Vladimir Putin a few years earlier.
“
India and China, which have not followed the Western sanctions regime, continue to obtain Russian oil which therefore necessarily passes through the Suez Canal
continues Paul Tourret.
“
The whole challenge for the Canal is above all to not only appear as a simple maritime passageway but to succeed in getting more out of it by becoming, for example, a free zone.
However, foreign investors continue to consider Egypt as a country at risk, even if it is the obligatory and often indispensable crossing point for 10% of the world's commercial traffic,
” he concludes.