This is one of the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
According to satellite images analyzed by the geolocation company Kayrros, the yield of the next wheat harvest in Ukraine should be down by at least 35% compared to the year 2021, in particular due to the Russian invasion, making thus fearing a major agricultural loss.
At satellite height, the difference compared to the usual seasons is already visible, corroborating the analysts' predictions.
The images were recorded between April 14 and 22, just under two months after Russia invaded the country, by NASA's Terra satellite, then analyzed by Kayrros.
The specialist in satellite imagery and geolocation applied to the environment relied on the so-called "normalized difference vegetation index" method, a precision infrared analysis that makes it possible to assess the state of plants and thus to predict the production of cereals.
At this stage, Ukraine would, according to Kayrros, be able to produce 21 million tonnes of wheat in the current year, i.e. 12 million less than in 2021, with a drop in harvest yield of 23% under the average of the last five years.
The conflict has indeed seriously disrupted the sowing season and forced farmers to work under the bombs, with real difficulty in obtaining fuel.
Smaller cultivated areas
"As fighting continues and much of the country's wheat production comes from areas of eastern Ukraine, where the conflict is most intense, actual production figures are likely to be lower. “warn the analysts.
Interviewed on Wednesday by AFP, Damien Vercambre, analyst at Inter-Courtage, said: "The sowing campaign is progressing, with farmers who sow with helmets and bulletproof vests (...) but it's a challenge incredible logistics, and we know that the cultivated areas will be smaller.
»
Added to this fall in production is another problem.
Indeed, if farmers were able to sow normally, they would in any case be limited in storage, exports by rail and road only being able to compensate for a minimal part of the departures of goods by boat, Moscow maintaining its blockade of Ukrainian ports, both on the Black Sea and on that of Azov, severely hampering trade.
At the same time, the war in Ukraine should also aggravate the fragilities of countries highly dependent on Russian and Ukrainian grain exports, such as Somalia or the Democratic Republic of Congo in Africa.
Faced with this threat, major agricultural powers, including the European Union, the United States, Canada and Australia pledged this Friday to ensure food security in the world despite the shocks caused by the invasion of the Ukraine by Russia.
“We pledge to work together to ensure there is enough food for everyone, including the poorest, most vulnerable and displaced people,” write the 51 members of the World Food Organization. Commerce in a joint statement, also promising to keep food markets open.