Election polls: NRW before the heartbeat final - new figures show leadership and a problem for Wüst's CDU

Created: 05/07/2022, 13:52

By: Marcus Giebel

The CDU and FDP have governed North Rhine-Westphalia for five years.

This could change soon.

We take a look at the polls for the May 15 election.

Update from May 6, 3 p.m.:

The ZDF “Politbarometer” provides new survey data shortly before the NRW election: Hendik Wüst’s CDU is still just ahead of the SPD with challenger Thomas Kutschaty.

The Wahlen research group determined a value of 30 percent for the station's "Sunday question" for the Christian Democrats.

On the other hand, 28 percent of respondents would vote for the SPD in a state election on Sunday.

infratest dimap for ZDF attested a comparatively strong increase for the Greens, which means they came to 18 percent - and thus achieved almost three times as many voters as in the last state election in 2017. This result is not too surprising in view of the nationwide survey soaring of the Greens, which the Insa Institute, among others, determined in a survey at the end of April to the beginning of May.

The FDP and AfD each received seven percent of the second votes in the ZDF Sunday question.

That would not be enough for the black-yellow coalition under Hendrik Wüst to continue.

According to the results, a red-green or black-green coalition would be possible.

Update from May 5, 6 p.m.:

The CDU is currently ahead of the SPD in polls for the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia.

A recent survey suggests so.

However, the lead over the SPD is not quite as large as in the most recent polls (see first report).

In a survey published by ARD on Thursday, the CDU reached 30 percent.

The SPD has 28 percent of the votes.

The third strongest force would be the Greens with 16 percent approval.

They are followed by the FDP and AfD, each with eight percent.

With three percent, the left would miss entering the state parliament.

For the survey, Infratest dimap interviewed 1,537 eligible voters from North Rhine-Westphalia from Monday to Wednesday.

The range of fluctuation was given as two to three percentage points.

Surveys by other large opinion research institutes had recently indicated a close race between the CDU and SPD.

Survey tremors before the NRW election: Wust suddenly in front of the SPD – the forecasts at a glance

First report from May 5, 1:00 p.m

.: Munich – It is the third state election of the year and in a way marks the end of the political spring of 2022. But also the highlight, because the election in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) has a special signal effect.

In the most populous federal state, it remains to be seen whether the SPD will continue the upswing since the federal elections or whether the CDU will put a stop to it and continue to be the strongest faction in Düsseldorf.

Since Armin Laschet left for Berlin at the end of October, Hendrik Wüst, who had previously been Minister of Transport, has acted as state father.

For the SPD, Thomas Kutschaty is in the running of the top candidates, he was Minister of Justice in North Rhine-Westphalia until 2017.

In that last state election, the Social Democrats lost almost eight percent of the vote and were suddenly only the second strongest force behind the Christian Democrats, who have been governing together with the FDP ever since.

The coalition has a razor-thin majority of just one vote.

The SPD, Greens and AfD sit on the opposition bench, as well as three non-party MPs.

Who can take a seat here in the future?

On May 15, the 18th state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia will be elected.

© Malte Krudewig/dpa

State elections in North Rhine-Westphalia: According to surveys, it will be tight between the CDU and SPD

A similar head-to-head race between the two mainstream parties is looming as in 2017. Around 13 million eligible voters are called on May 15 to cast their votes.

So far there are many indications that black and yellow would no longer get a majority.

According to surveys, the big winners seem to be the Greens, who may even be able to double their result from five years ago.

The Liberals, on the other hand, face severe losses.

The AfD is also likely to make it into parliament again.

Wüst and the CDU should get tailwind from the Forsa survey of May 4th.

The governing party landed at 32 percent - the best value in almost two months - and at the same time referred the SPD to second place with four percentage points less.

This is the largest gap since mid-March.

The Greens would therefore come to 17 percent and could thus become the “Prime Minister-maker”.

The FDP holds its own with seven percent ahead of the AfD, which would reach six percent.

For the left, entry into the state parliament would be far away at three percent.

This survey took place online between April 19th and 26th on behalf of NRW daily newspapers.

2006 citizens took part.

Prime Minister survey of North Rhine-Westphalia: Wüst and Kuchaty both lose approval

It is also interesting to look at the preference between the two prime ministerial candidates.

Depending on the survey, Wüst was even more than 40 percent in April, but this time he only gets 35 percent.

Kuchaty, who has only exceeded the 30 percent mark twice since the end of October, would be the favorite for 27 percent of those surveyed.

The incumbent lost six percent compared to the previous Forsa survey of April 13 and the most recent Infratest dimap survey of April 24.

The challenger went down by seven and five percent respectively.

At least 181 MPs will move into the state parliament, which can still increase due to overhang and compensation mandates.

199 politicians currently form the second largest state parliament in the federal government after Bavaria.

We show an overview of the previous polls on the outcome of the eagerly awaited election day on May 15th.

How will the 18th NRW state parliament look like?

NRW: Surveys and forecasts for May 15 - The state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia

For comparison: in 2017, the CDU received 33 percent of the votes, the SPD 31.2 percent.

The FDP was the third largest group with 12.6 percent, followed by the AfD with 7.4 percent and the Greens with 6.4 percent.

The left narrowly missed entering the state parliament with 4.9 percent, the other parties accounted for 4.5 percent.