Election polls show dictator's son on course for new president of the Philippines

Created: 05/07/2022, 08:51

By: Sven Hauberg

Ferdinand Marcos Junior is campaigning in a Manila suburb in March.

© Jam Sta Rosa/AFP

The Philippines will elect a new president on Monday.

Rodrigo Duterte's successor could also reassess relations with China.

Munich/Manila - Next Monday will be a public holiday in the Philippines.

Whether there is something to celebrate for the approximately 110 million people in the island state will probably only become apparent in the coming weeks and months.

Because on Monday (9 May) the Filipinos will elect a new president.

Incumbent Rodrigo Duterte cannot stand again after a six-year term.

As one of his last official acts, the highly controversial president declared election day a public holiday a few days ago - this should enable the country's citizens "to be able to exercise their right to vote properly," as Duterte said.

The post of vice president and several thousand candidates at the local level are also up for election.

It could be a fateful choice for the Philippines that will change the course of the country for years to come.

The vote may "end democracy in the Philippines," writes analyst Joshua Kurlantzick of the US think tank Council on Foreign Relations.

Because with Ferdinand Marcos Junior, called "Bongbong", a candidate with "anti-democratic tendencies" has the best chance of moving into the Malacañan Palace, the seat of the president in Manila.

Polls put Marcos Junior at 56 percent, his closest competitor, current Vice President Leni Robredo, at 24 percent.

Philippines: Marcos, son of dictator, rewrites history

"Bongbong" is the son of former ruler Ferdinand Marcos Sr., who ruled the country from 1965 to 1986, first as a democratically elected president, later as a dictator and under martial law.

Marcos Sr. plundered his country's coffers, had thousands of people tortured or executed, and - after ruining the Philippines' economy - finally fled to the United States with his wife Imelda, who was notoriously shoe-mad.

He died in Hawaii in 1989. Today, at the age of 92, Imelda lives again in the Philippines.

For many Filipinos, that was all a long time ago.

The population of the predominantly Catholic country is young, half of the voters who are allowed to go to the polls on Monday were not yet born when Marcos Sr. left the country.

His son knows how to use this for himself.

"Bongbong" speaks directly to them on social media and spreads his own version of the story there.

Marcos spreads false information and uses the narrative that everything used to be better.

In a country where the population is online for an average of ten hours a day, the lies spread on the internet quickly get lost.

“There the legend of 'golden years' during the dictatorship is spread.

And: that only a strong leader offers the answer to economic challenges and the fight against poverty and security problems",

Philippines: Marcos and Duterte campaign against elites

Together with Sara Duterte, the daughter of Rodrigo Duterte, who wants to be elected vice president in a separate vote on Monday, Marcos Junior is campaigning against the existing elites - "although both candidates are themselves members of this elite", as Bill Hayton of the British think tank Chatham House says.

82 percent of Filipinos describe themselves as poor or say they live on the edge of poverty.

"Although official statistics show a significant reduction in poverty over the past 15 years, the percentage of the population that feels poor relative to the rest of society has hardly decreased," Hayton writes in an analysis.

Marcos and Duterte know how to take advantage of this feeling of being left behind.

Even if, as Hayton says, for these people

Marcos' most important opponent Leni Robredo, who has made a bright pink the color of her election campaign, hardly gets through with her messages.

"She has failed to reach out to poorer voters or convince them that she has a compelling program to improve their lives," Hayton said.

While Marcos promises major infrastructure projects under the slogan "Build, build, build!" Robredo wants to fight corruption in the country and, as she says, protect democracy in the Philippines.

As Vice President, she was Rodrigo Duterte's opponent, she had repeatedly condemned his brutal fight against drugs, to which thousands have fallen victim.

However, she has probably recognized too late that the election campaign is mainly taking place on the Internet.

Vice President Leni Robredo is considered Marcos' most promising opponent.

©TAN/AFP

Philippines and China: South China Sea issue

In Beijing, too, one should watch the coming Monday closely.

After six years in office, Duterte leaves behind an ambivalent relationship with his overpowering neighbor to the north.

At the beginning of his presidency, he was still trying to maintain close ties with China, claiming it was "time to say goodbye to Washington."

The US is a traditional ally of the Philippines and operates several important military bases in the country.

In 2016, Duterte visited Beijing;

During a phone call with the outgoing President of the Philippines just a few weeks ago, head of state and party leader Xi Jinping described the visit as a “milestone”, and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently summed up that Duterte “has pursued a resolute, friendly policy towards China since he took office “.

Observers see it differently.

Because Duterte's China euphoria had quickly evaporated.

Investments that Beijing had promised did not come.

Above all, however, a border dispute in the South China Sea is straining relations between Manila and Beijing.

China claims a large part of the areas off the Philippine coast for itself and ignores a ruling by the UN Permanent Court of Arbitration, which ruled in favor of the Philippines in the dispute in 2016.

The Philippines repeatedly accuses the Chinese government of intimidating its own coast guard with maneuvers in the disputed area and pushing Philippine fishing fleets away.

Philippines: A country between China and the USA

In a speech in March, Huang Xilian, the Chinese ambassador to Manila, said in a speech that "the issue of the South China Sea should be a stepping stone, not an obstacle, to the development of China-Philippines relations."

Ferdinand Marcos Junior is said to be more pro-Beijing.

The candidate "has always had good relations with Beijing and may try to woo China again and launch more Beijing-backed infrastructure projects," says analyst Joshua Kurlantzick.

However, this is opposed by the fact that China has made itself extremely unpopular with the Filipino population in recent years.

"Bongbong's" rival candidate Leni Robredo, on the other hand, took a tough stance on China during the election campaign and insisted that Beijing finally recognize the 2016 verdict.

During his speech in March, Beijing's ambassador in Manila also said something that can certainly be understood as a threat: "It depends entirely on our own decision whether the South China Sea is a challenge or an opportunity, a problem or a blessing. ' Huang Xilian was probably not only aiming at the Philippines, but also at the USA.

Because the Indo-Pacific region is becoming increasingly important for Washington.

A President Marcos who orients himself more towards China should also become a problem for the USA.