May 9 as a “turning point”: Putin wants the Azovstal steelworks as a trophy
Created: 05/07/2022 05:06
By: Tobias Utz
Putin could announce a general mobilization on May 9, “Victory Day”.
Before that, he wants to conquer the Azovstal steelworks – as a symbolic success.
+++ 12.44 p.m .:
The human rights organization Memorial, founded in Russia and banned since February, wants to start a special protest action on “Victory Day”.
“While Vladimir Putin is planning his May 9 military parade, demonstrations against the war of aggression in Ukraine are strictly forbidden in Russia.
People who want to protest peacefully have to reckon with severe penalties.”
Memorial therefore wants to set an example with a digital alternative demo.
On the redsquareprotest.org website, the group invites people from Russia and around the world to a joint digital demonstration on a virtual Red Square.
"Come to this Red Square!" the group announced on its website.
The goal is one million digital demonstrators.
Memorial, now banned by Russia's top court, works as an organization to investigate Soviet crimes.
It also raises awareness of the human rights situation in Russia.
Update from Friday, May 6, 8:30 a.m.:
As the British Ministry of Defense announced on Friday (May 6), the Russian armed forces are continuing their ground attack on the surrounded Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol for the second day in a row - contrary to official claims Moscow that it only wants to seal off the combine.
According to the UK, Putin's increased attacks are aimed at celebrating a symbolic victory in Ukraine ahead of the traditional Victory Parade on May 9th.
If the Azovstal plant is conquered, Russia would have completely taken the Black Sea city of Mariupol.
However, success would have been bought at a high price: Russia is currently paying high tariffs for personnel, equipment and ammunition.
For Vladimir Putin, capturing the Azovstal Steelworks ahead of the grand victory celebrations on May 9 would represent a major symbolic achievement.
© AFP Photo / Telegram Account of the Ministry of Interior of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic.
+++ 4:00 p.m .:
While the Kremlin is rumored to be planning several military parades on May 9th, the Ukraine war may also be leaving deadly marks in Russia.
Fires in various Russian cities are being reported more and more frequently, mostly affecting ammunition depots and military facilities.
Whether the fires were the result of attacks by the Ukrainian armed forces, or whether it was a matter of sabotage from within the country's own ranks or just pure coincidence, is so far completely uncertain.
The BBC reports that the attacks could be related to fears of Putin's general mobilization on May 9th.
This information cannot be independently verified.
+++ 2.30 p.m .:
The Ukrainian secret service is currently assuming that Russia is not only planning a military parade in Moscow on May 9th.
The Kyiv Independent news portal reports that a parade is also to take place in the port city of Mariupol, which has been under siege and destroyed for weeks.
Russia is currently making “preparations for the parade”.
The central streets of Mariupol would be cleared of rubble and ordnance in the process.
In addition, bodies would be removed.
The information provided by the Ukrainian secret service cannot be independently verified.
Ukraine war: May 9 in Russia – Kremlin spokesman with denials
+++ 1.30 p.m .:
The Kremlin has denied that Vladimir Putin wanted to officially declare war on Ukraine on May 9th.
"This is nonsense," said spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
This is reported by the Reuters news agency.
+++ 1:00 p.m .:
Against the background of the war in Ukraine, Russia wants to present new weapons at the traditional military parade on May 9 in Red Square this year.
"For the first time, modern Tornado-G multiple rocket launchers with a caliber of 122 millimeters and equipped with automatic control and fire control systems will roll across Red Square in the motorized column," Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced on Wednesday, according to a report by the Interfax agency.
May 9: CDU expert warns of "enormous escalation"
Update from Wednesday, May 4th, 9.30 a.m .:
Roderich Kiesewetter, CDU foreign policy expert, has warned of the danger of further mobilization in the Russian army.
"One has to fear that Vladimir Putin will announce the general mobilization on May 9," he told the Augsburger Allgemeine.
"If it came to that, it would be a tremendous escalation of the war," says Kiesewetter.
In this context, you have to be prepared for all possible scenarios.
"Before Putin can call for general mobilization on May 9, the West and Europe still have a week to send clear, strong signals," Kiesewetter explained to the AZ.
Ukraine war: May 9th as a "turning point"?
Ukraine probably on alert
Update from Tuesday, May 3, 10:15 a.m .:
In Ukraine there are concerns about a significant increase in Russian attacks in the coming weeks.
On Tuesday, several Ukrainian media picked up a report by the US broadcaster CNN on speculation that Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin could declare a state of war in Russia and order general mobilization in just a few days.
The head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, also spoke of Russian preparations for an open mobilization of soldiers and reservists.
There is no evidence for this.
So far, Russia has officially only spoken of a "special operation" in Ukraine.
The Kremlin did not initially respond to the latest rumours.
In the first few weeks after the attack on the neighboring country on February 24, Moscow commented on the concerns of its own population and emphasized that general mobilization was not planned.
Even in the event of such an order, however, the extent would be completely unclear: Russia's legislation also provides for the possibility of partial mobilization, which would then only affect individual regions of the giant country.
Ukraine war: May 9th as a "turning point"?
Klitschko warns against "lies"
+++ 4.45 p.m .:
Wladimir Klitschko, ex-boxing world champion and brother of Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko, has commented on the war forecast from May 9th.
In an interview with the Phoenix TV channel, he said that this was extremely uncertain, since one could only expect "lies" from the Kremlin.
"There's a huge difference between being scared, which is actually a good thing, and being worried but not being cowardly.
And I would also like to warn the Western world not to be cowardly, we must stand together against this aggressive Russia and against this aggressive policy of Russia and its army, without being cowardly, with one front.
And that's why I don't want to comment on what will happen on May 9th.
Will there be a mobilization?
We can't really rely on the information coming from Russia because lying is endless," Klitschko said in an interview.
Ukraine War: “Turning Point” on May 9th?
British Foreign Secretary speaks out
Update from Monday, May 2nd, 2:30 p.m.:
Numerous experts have recently commented on the possible further course of the war in Ukraine.
The unanimous prognosis: Russia will use May 9, the “Day of Victory” over Nazi Germany, not only for the pompous annual military parade, but also for renewed mobilization of the armed forces.
The British Defense Secretary has now agreed to this forecast.
In an interview with LBC Radio, Ben Wallace said he expected Vladimir Putin to make a corresponding announcement in Moscow.
It is likely that the Russian President will declare a global war against "Nazis" as part of the "military operation".
Thus, Putin could possibly "consolidate" the heavy losses in the Ukraine war, as Wallace put it.
Accordingly, it is considered an option that reservist groups could be sent to Ukraine.
The British defense secretary described the Kremlin's attempts to cover up the losses as "pathetic".
Ben Wallace, British Defense Secretary.
© Mateusz Wlodarczyk/Imago Images
May 9th as a "turning point" in the Ukraine war - Putin will probably change Russia's strategy
First report from Friday, April 29, 9 a.m.:
Moscow – May 9, a Monday, plays a crucial role in Vladimir Putin's war plans.
On this date, the Kremlin celebrates the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, "Victory Day".
On the occasion of this, soldiers march in Moscow and a pompous military parade takes place.
On that Monday, Putin would probably be happy to announce another victory: in the Ukraine war.
Given that Russia's offensive in Donbass is progressing slowly, this scenario is becoming increasingly unlikely.
That's why experts are now assuming that Putin will change his strategy.
Experts from the think tank Center for European Political Analysis predict in a report that on May 9 Russia will mobilize new troops for the war.
“Russia's military believes it is a mistake to limit the goals of the war.
They argue that Russia isn't fighting Ukraine, it's NATO," the analysis reads.
"Victory Day" on May 9: is Vladimir Putin changing his strategy in the Ukraine war?
Experts from the Royal United Services Institute argue similarly.
The latest study states: "May 9 has changed from a deadline for victory into the beginning of a huge mobilization." The sluggish Donbass offensive calls for a larger army strength.
In this context, the experts speak of a "turning point" in the Ukraine war: "May 9 could be the day on which the Russian leadership no longer speaks of a 'military special operation', but of 'war'."
Michael Mazarr from the Rand Corporation think tank also shares the assessment of the experts mentioned.
“It could be threatening gestures by the Russians.
But it could also be true and Putin is actually changing course.
The risk of such a scenario cannot be ignored," Mazarr said in a statement.
In the course of Alexander Dwornikov's appointment as the new supreme commander of the Russian army in the Ukraine war, it became known that Putin had proclaimed "Victory Day" as the target date for the invasion.
This emerged, among other things, from an internal NATO briefing.
It said, among other things: "The Russian military leadership is under enormous political pressure to finally achieve a military breakthrough in Ukraine, which can be presented as a victory at the parade on May 9." (tu with dpa / AFP)
