A state parliament like in the 00s: AfD voters migrate to Jamaica – because of Günther's "top class"?

Created: 05/08/2022, 23:32

By: Florian Naumann

CDU top candidate Daniel Günther is happy about his election victory.

© Christian Charisius/dpa

More than 40 percent at the ballot box, "top class" values ​​in polls: Daniel Günther makes people sit up and take notice in Schleswig-Holstein.

Is there therefore a state parliament without the AfD and the left?

Munich/Kiel – The Schleswig-Holstein election on Sunday was not particularly exciting.

But she underlined what was definitely an exciting impression: there seems to be no more political certainty in Germany.

Within eight months, a chancellor who had been declared politically dead and a state parliament governing alone has suddenly become reality again.

In Kiel, after these two successes, the SPD disintegrated on an historic scale.

Another aspect, which was actually extremely remarkable, was less obvious.

Hard to the right of the CDU and to the left of the SPD, there is now an emptiness in the SH state parliament.

One political scientist scoffed that the Saarland wanted its three-party parliament to be "picked up from the 80s".

Schleswig-Holstein's new state parliament now looks a bit like a state parliament from the early 00s: pretty much in the middle.

A stark contrast to Thuringia, for example.

A state parliament was elected there in 2019 in which a majority apart from the left and AfD is not mathematically possible.

Schleswig-Holstein election becomes “Günther election”: CDU and FDP take away AfD voters

Daniel Günther will have played a part in this surprising panorama.

FDP leader Christian Lindner even spoke of a "Günther election" - certainly also to explain the losses of his liberals.

In any case, the Wahlen research group attested the old and certainly also the new Prime Minister of Schleswig-Holstein to be “Prime Minister top class” in the polls.

On election day and in the week before the election, 85 percent of those surveyed said he did a “good job”.

The image apparently had an effect even in AfD voter circles.

According to infratest dimap, 49 percent of AfD sympathizers said shortly before the election that they preferred Günther as prime minister.

The only choices were the CDU politician and his SPD and Green opponents.

But "no answer" was allowed as an answer.

The Green Monika Heinold received 9 percent.

SPD candidate Thomas Losse-Müller: 0 percent.

The institute's voter migration analysis showed on Sunday evening that the bottom line is that around 7,000 of the almost 87,000 AfD second voters who voted for the CDU should have disappeared.

The right-wing populists lost 6,000 votes to the FDP, and a balance of 6,000 votes went to the non-voter camp.

Very different directions - but it is still remarkable that almost one percentage point in the final account went over from a party of protest and extremes to the previous governing parties.

Schleswig-Holstein: AfD in descent - "Comrade Günther" is presidential

This confirms a German trend for the AfD.

In the last eight state elections, the party lost votes.

And the left is also in a very persistent downward spiral.

Nevertheless, inquiries about the "Günther concept" will now be received more frequently in Kiel.

Some are already expecting important lessons from "Comrade Günther" for other Union greats.

Presumably, however, it will be about tricks in Günther's "presidential" appearance - which Phoenix expert Gerd-Joachim von Fallois classified as a trump card on Sunday.

This could also include a surprising coalition strategy, in an almost non-partisan presidential style.

Günther indicated on Sunday that he wants to negotiate a continuation of Jamaica.

Although the CDU would have four possible partners for a two-party alliance.

However, critics could also object: the three-party coalition without necessity keeps the opposition small.

The Greens have already threatened the government with "tough" work in the event of a black-yellow alliance.

Jamaica stays, Günther could only expect contraindications from the shrunken SPD and the SSW.

Does Günther also have tangible lessons for dealing with right-wingers?

Of course, the AfD result was not his only merit.

The Schleswig-Holstein-AfD was already struggling with internal problems.

And, like the neighboring association in Hamburg, it had never entered parliament with flags waving.

State elections in May: Wüst is hoping for tailwind from Günther - no certainties in Düsseldorf

In any case, the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia, the next state election state, is already hoping for momentum from the result in Schleswig-Holstein.

The result was "a great success for Daniel Günther, but also for the CDU as a whole," said the conservative top candidate Hendrik Wüst on Sunday the

.

Günther's success in the north showed that "the CDU people's party was back on track". 

It remains to be seen, however, whether this is true without further ado.

In North Rhine-Westphalia, a head-to-head race has recently emerged.

And the AfD seems to be on course for a state parliament re-entry.

The pollsters recently determined 6 to 8 percent in the Sunday questions.

However, 6 percent were also collected in part in Schleswig-Holstein.

Certainties are rare at the moment.

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