Big surprise after the "Günther election": CDU election winner gives first clear indication

Created: 05/08/2022, 20:30

By: Florian Naumann, Cindy Boden

The state elections in Schleswig-Holstein have ended.

The CDU is pleased with the first forecasts.

AfD and Linke, on the other hand, have been hit hard.

News ticker.

• On Sunday (8 May) the citizens of Schleswig-Holstein will elect

  a new state parliament

  .

• The first forecasts showed a massive victory for the CDU, the AfD must probably tremble to re-enter the Kiel Parliament.

• It is questionable whether CDU leader Friedrich Merz can draw tailwind from Daniel Günther's election victory.

• This

  news ticker for the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein

  is continuously updated.

Update from May 8, 8:19 p.m .:

Four possible partners for a two-party alliance are available.

The Schleswig-Holstein election winner Daniel Günther still wants to officially negotiate a three-party coalition;

the sequel to "Jamaica".

He has now made that clear on NDR.

"I said before the election that I would like to continue governing in Jamaica, and that's why it's perfectly clear to me that I'll say clearly after the election that I'll hold talks with the Greens and the FDP," said Günther the transmitter.

Despite its losses, the FDP remains interesting as a coalition partner, he clarified.

"The FDP has also done an excellent job in this coalition," he emphasized.

That is why he will hold talks with the Greens and the FDP.

Günther initially did not name the strengthened SSW and the projections that the SPD had crashed violently as possible negotiating partners.

Of course, it cannot be ruled out that the talks with the FDP and the Greens will result in a two-party alliance with only one of the two parties.

Update from May 8, 7:53 p.m.:

According to the latest projections, there appear to be only a few question marks left about the Schleswig-Holstein election.

ARD and ZDF now rate the Greens at 17.7 to 17.9 percent on similar values.

According to the two sources, the CDU ranks between 42.4 and 42.7 percent.

In the case of the AfD, however, hopes are dwindling: 4.4 percent in the ZDF projections already show a large gap to the ominous five percent hurdle.

The ARD sees the right-wing populists at 4.8 percent.

Schleswig-Holstein: "Günther choice"?

FDP explains election losses with the office bonus

Update from May 8th, 7:40 p.m.:

How should the election result in Schleswig-Holstein be interpreted?

Two parties that suffered losses have a clear opinion on this: It was a matter of a strongly personalized state election or even a "Günther election", according to the election reactions of the SPD and FDP in the evening.

There was no state election, said FDP federal leader Christian Lindner.

"Has taken place: A Günther election," he explained to party friends.

SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert emphasized in the "Berlin Round" of the ARD that an effect that had already been experienced several times had repeated itself: A popular state government had won the election with the official bonus.

Green Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck took a similar line.

The winners of the election were Günther and the Greens, he said on ZDF: "Of course, the votes always go to the incumbent if you want him back.

And he was a good MP, no question.”

Lindner also doubted that the NRW state elections, which would take place in a week's time, would have a signal effect: "Hendrik Wüst is not Daniel Günther," he said.

"In this respect, the FDP will be all the more important next week."

Update from May 8, 7:25 p.m .:

After the Schleswig-Holstein election, a curiosity cannot be ruled out when forming a coalition: the CDU could ultimately have four partners for a two-party alliance to choose from – and still continue the three-man squad of Jamaica -set coalition.

Daniel Günther praised the constellation in his first statement on the evening of the election, CDU faction leader Tobias Koch was even clearer on NDR: "We would like Jamaica to continue," he explained.

However, the Greens and FDP have apparently already started work against this variant.

"According to the current figures, there is the possibility for Daniel Günther to form a government with us and we are available for that," said FDP top candidate Bernd Buchholz.

If there is no black-green state government, her party will pursue “tough opposition policy”, Greens colleague Monika Heinold warned on ARD.

The traditional closeness of the two parties could speak in favor of a two-party alliance between the CDU and the FDP.

However, the Greens can use the election result to field: Unlike the Liberals, they have gained noticeably.

Schleswig-Holstein election 2022: New projections - CDU result sharpens

Update from May 8, 7:03 p.m.:

ARD and ZDF are already making further projections.

The values ​​​​for the CDU are sharpening, both broadcasters now see the Christian Democrats above 42 percent, the SPD is also leveling off at a good 15.5 percent, the FDP falls just below the 7 percent mark, but does not have to Fear moving into the Kieler Landeshaus.

The same applies to the SSW, which almost doubled its result at a good 6 percent.

The Greens are heading towards second place, with 17.5 to 18.4 percent still have a fairly large spread of results in the projections.

The situation for the AfD and the left is completely different.

The right-wing populists fall slightly again in both extrapolation variants and rank a little more clearly below the five percent hurdle.

According to ARD data, the left comes to 1.7 percent and can tick off the election evening as another episode in a long series of low blows.

Update from May 8th, 6:47 p.m.:

The first projections are there.

They largely confirm the forecast data: the CDU is between 41 and almost 43 percent;

the Greens are currently the second strongest force with a good 17 to a good 19 percent in the race.

According to the data from ARD and ZDF, the AfD is just below the five percent hurdle.

Election in Schleswig-Holstein: Günther thanks the Greens and the FDP - pointer to the coalition election?

Update from May 8, 6.40 p.m .:

Prime Minister and Daniel Günther is now appearing in Kiel in front of his CDU party friends.

"The voters made a clear decision today," he calls out, the election winner being the CDU.

"Daniel, Daniel!" chants can be heard.

Günther praises a "new style" that the Jamaica coalition with the Greens and the FDP has shaped.

The CDU top candidate thanks the two partners.

It seems possible that the Christian Democrats will continue the three-party alliance, although a second coalition would also be possible.

According to data from the institute infratest dimap, however, it was above all Günther as a person who brought the CDU the landslide victory in the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein.

54 percent of CDU voters said they made their voting decision based on the top candidate.

Schleswig-Holstein has voted: Daniel Günther announces a “victory” to the CDU campaigners.

© Christian Charisius/dpa

Update from May 8, 6:33 p.m.:

SPD top candidate Thomas Losse-Müller has admitted defeat in the Schleswig-Holstein election.

"In the end, we didn't succeed in getting our way with the issues," he told his comrades in Kiel, referring to the SPD's election campaign.

When it came to Corona, for example, there was hardly any room to distance oneself from the state government, and later the Ukraine war drew people's attention.

According to the current forecasts, the SPD lost a good 11 percentage points in the state elections in the north - the CDU gained to a similar extent.

Incidentally, the two Jamaica coalition partners FDP and Greens are experiencing a similar effect as things stand: The Greens are able to gain around four percentage points, while the FDP loses by the same amount.

However, all these figures are still based on initial forecasts.

Extrapolations are not yet available.

Schleswig-Holstein election: The Greens are in a celebratory mood, Robert Habeck hugs Aminata Touré.

© Marcus Brandt/dpa

Schleswig-Holstein election: CDU surprise possible – three-party alliance despite two-party option?

Update from May 8, 6:25 p.m.:

As things stand in Schleswig-Holstein, the CDU can easily form a two-party coalition under Daniel Günther.

But even after the first forecasts, the conservatives are thinking of a rather unorthodox solution.

“For us, what we said before the election also applies after the election.

We would like Jamaica to continue," says CDU faction leader Tobias Koch on NDR television: "I think a three-way constellation has proven very effective here in Schleswig-Holstein."

Current election in Schleswig-Holstein: first state parliamentary expulsion for the AfD?

Update from May 8, 6:15 p.m .:

The election evening in Kiel could end very bitterly for the AfD: the current forecast by ARD sees the party at 4.9 percent, on ZDF it only ranks at 4.5 percent.

The right-wing populists are still sitting in all German state parliaments - in Schleswig-Holstein this series could now tear.

However, that is not certain yet, postal voters are also likely to play a major role in the north;

the current data are based on post-election surveys at the polling stations.

Update from May 8, 6:04 p.m .:

ZDF and the Wahlen research group also see the CDU above the 40 percent mark in the first forecast.

Prime Minister Daniel Günther's Christian Democrats can definitely choose their coalition partners: with the Greens, SPD and FDP, but possibly also with the SSW, the CDU could get a parliamentary majority on its feet.

However, the party of the Danish-speaking minority sees itself leaning more towards social democracy.

There are also long faces in the SPD: the comrades around top candidate Thomas Losse-Müller have fallen behind the Greens, despite polls to the contrary.

However, the left is no longer even listed in the overview tables of ARD and ZDF.

As recently in Saarland and in the federal election, the party fails at the five percent mark.

Schleswig-Holstein election live: Günther pulverizes competition – first forecast makes AfD tremble

Update from May 8th, 6 p.m.:

Voting in the far north of Germany is over, the first forecasts for the result of the Schleswig-Holstein election are available.

As expected, according to data from Infratest dimap, the big winner is the CDU: 43 percent are recorded, more than twice as many as for the second and third-placed SPD (15.5 percent) and Greens (17 percent).

According to the ARD figures, the FDP has also secured the leap into the state parliament with 7 percent.

The SSW, which is already exempt from the five percent hurdle, is at 6 percent.

The AfD could even be thrown out of parliament in Kiel with 4.9 percent.

Update from May 8th, 5.48 p.m .:

The turnout in Schleswig-Holstein apparently still increased towards the closing of the polling stations: for 5 p.m. the state returning officer reported an estimated turnout of 54.7 percent.

That is only 0.2 percentage points less than at the same time in 2017. At 2 p.m. the value was almost four percentage points below that of the previous election.

In the end, 64.2 percent of voters took part in the state elections in 2017.

Schleswig-Holstein election: Even landslide victory no tailwind for Merz?

Habeck clears away in absentia

Update from May 8, 5:08 p.m .:

The polling stations in the far north of Germany will close in less than an hour.

The outcome of the Schleswig-Holstein election should hardly cause any surprises: In the last election polls, Prime Minister Daniel Günther's CDU was in the lead by a clear margin.

However, it remains unclear who can and will enter into a coalition with whom after the SH election.

And in Berlin, too, the election is being followed with eagle eyes again.

For CDU leader Friedrich Merz, an election victory could mean tailwind.

However, the pollsters throw some water in the conservatives' wine on this issue: Not only that the CDU result is apparently based on Günther's great popularity.

In a survey by infratest dimap on behalf of ARD for the Schleswig-Holstein election, only 17 percent of those surveyed saw Merz as "a great support" for his party.

The other figureheads of the major parties fared better: 27 percent of the survey participants considered Olaf Scholz to be an important pillar of the SPD election campaign, FDP leader Christian Lindner received this rating from 30 percent of those surveyed.

However, the participants believed that an old acquaintance would have the greatest impact by far.

Robert Habeck was Vice Prime Minister in Kiel until 2018 - he received 69 percent approval in the category "...is a great support for his party".

Schleswig-Holstein state election live: Günther reaffirms Jamaica's will - SPD sees change in topic

Preliminary report:

Kiel - In the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein, at least in the morning and at noon, there was a lower turnout than five years ago.

By the early afternoon, 2 p.m., 36.8 percent of those eligible to vote in the polling stations cast their votes, as the state returning officer announced on his website.

In 2017, 42.5 percent had done so at this point.

The turnout at the time was 64.2 percent.

According to earlier information, the deputy state returning officer, Maik Petersen, assumed that postal voting would be used frequently.

In 2017, the proportion of postal votes was 18 percent.

Election in Schleswig-Holstein: CDU before victory?

“I would be happy if the surveys confirm”

In any case, Prime Minister Daniel Günther (CDU) was optimistic when voting on Sunday.

"I would be happy if the polls were confirmed and the CDU became the strongest force by far, because I would very much like to continue this government," he said after the election in Eckernförde.

The alliance of the CDU, FDP and Greens - also known as the "Jamaica coalition" - was good for Schleswig-Holstein.

Daniel Günther, Prime Minister and CDU top candidate, answers the media representatives' questions after casting his vote in the Eckernförde polling station.

© Marcus Brandt/dpa

SPD challenger Thomas Losse-Müller was also in good spirits.

"As the SPD, we have fought with all our might for every vote in the past few weeks," he said, according to a statement.

The election campaign was overshadowed by major global political issues for a long time, but attention to the issues in the country has increased in recent days.

There was a lot of support for the rental price brake, a tariff loyalty law and free daycare centers on the markets and on front doors.

"I'm counting on social issues to return to the state government with the SPD."

You can read more about the results of the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein in this news ticker.

Schleswig-Holstein election live: forecast and projections expected in the evening

A good 2.3 million Schleswig-Holsteiners are allowed to vote in the state elections.

There are 16 parties with state lists to choose from, three more than five years ago.

The first forecasts and projections are expected in the evening shortly after the polling stations close.

According to the latest polls, the CDU has a clear lead.

Sometimes the SPD and the Greens are still fighting for second place, sometimes the Social Democrats are ahead.

State elections in Schleswig-Holstein live: CDU 2022 strongest force again?

In the state election five years ago, the CDU became the strongest party with 32 percent and has governed together with the Greens and the FDP ever since.

The SPD came to 27.3 percent in 2017.

The Greens reached 12.9 percent, the FDP 11.5 percent, the AfD 5.9 and the SSW 3.3 percent.

Parallel to the state parliament, the mayors are also being elected in several cities, including in the Stormarn district town of Bad Oldesloe and in Eckernförde.