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A bouquet for the winner: Daniel Günther emerged as the big winner from the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein
Photo: AXEL HEIMKEN / AFP
According to an analysis by the Wahlen research group, the CDU owes its clear victory in the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein primarily to its top candidate Daniel Günther.
In an election that is clearly shaped by state politics, the CDU's success has many reasons and a name, according to the analysis based on a survey of eligible voters.
61 percent stated that they wanted Günther as prime minister again.
"In addition to a high reputation as a state party, expertise and good government work, the Christian Democrats score above all with Daniel Günther." .
This is flanked by an excellent balance sheet, they say;
85 percent of those surveyed said that the previous and future head of government did a good job.
According to projections, the CDU won 43.5 percent in the state elections, an increase of 11.5 percentage points.
With this, the CDU probably just barely misses a one-man government because the AfD does not make it into the state parliament in the projections.
The second strongest force will be the Greens with Monika Heinold (18 percent, +5.1), only then will the SPD come with their top candidate Thomas Losse-Müller (15.9 percent, -11.4).
The FDP, which has so far been part of a Jamaica alliance, lost 6.4 percent (-5.1 percentage points).
In addition to the Günther effect, the Wahlen research group also sees “specifically weak competition” as the reason for the clear CDU victory.
Losse-Müller only wanted eight percent as prime minister, and Heinold nine percent.
Less than a third of those questioned knew the challengers from the SPD and the Greens by name.
»Declining local reputation« of the SPD
In addition to a pale candidate and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who was only partially convincing in the Ukraine crisis, the SPD had a “declining local reputation” (0.9; 2017: 1.5), the analysis continues.
The Greens kept their image stable with an unchanged 1.2, as did the FDP, which has previously governed with the CDU and Greens - albeit with only a moderate 0.7.
Günther's CDU, on the other hand, has reached a record level when viewed: 2.4 (2017: 1.4).
In an election where events in the state were more important for 69 percent and federal politics for only 27 percent, the CDU also benefited from increased trust in the location: 63 percent (2017: 56 percent) see the state well equipped for future tasks.
According to the research group Wahlen, the CDU is clearly credited with the highest level of future and economic competence.
When it comes to education or infrastructure, however, the largest governing party shows relative deficits.
In energy policy and in climate/environment, they are far behind the Greens.
When asked about a future coalition, the feedback on a Jamaica alliance was positive.
It is said that distance prevails over all other coalition models.
hba/dpa