Election in Schleswig-Holstein: prognosis and projections show: AfD must tremble, SPD experiences "debacle"
Created: 05/08/2022Updated: 05/08/2022 7:24 p.m
By: Max Schäfer, Tanja Banner
In the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein, forecasts and projections show a clear winner.
The AfD has to worry, the SPD is experiencing a "debacle".
The election in Schleswig-Holstein:
The first forecasts and projections for the Schleswig-Holstein state election show a clear winner: Daniel Günther's CDU.
The
projections for the election in Schleswig-Holstein
reinforce the trend.
Tragic incident at the polling station
overshadowed waiting for forecasts and projections at the election.
Forecasts and extrapolations:
Read all the developments in the figures for the election in Schleswig-Holstein in our new ticker.
+++ 7.20 p.m .:
The second projection for the election in Schleswig-Holstein further solidifies the trend: the AfD must continue to worry about entering the state parliament, while the CDU and Greens can celebrate and the SPD performs poorly.
The SSW continues to increase and is now at 6.2 percent.
Political party | ARD (7.15 p.m.) | ZDF (7 p.m.) |
|---|---|---|
CDU | 42.7 | 42.1 |
SPD | 15.5 | 15.6 |
Green | 17.7 | 18.4 |
FDP | 6.7 | 6.9 |
SSW | 6.2 | 6.2 |
AfD | 4.8 | 4.5 |
Other | 4.7 | 6.3 |
First extrapolation of the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein
+++ 18:52:
The first projection for the state election in Schleswig-Holstein is there.
The projections from 6.45 p.m. confirm the trend that the first results had already indicated: the CDU is the big winner of the election, the SPD does poorly, while the Greens received the second most votes.
The AfD must continue to worry about entering the state parliament.
Political party | ARD (6.42 p.m.) | ZDF (6.44 p.m.) |
|---|---|---|
CDU | 42.8 | 41.3 |
SPD | 15.5 | 16.0 |
Green | 17.2 | 19.3 |
FDP | 7.0 | 7.0 |
SSW | 6.1 | 6.0 |
AfD | 4.9 | 4.6 |
Other | 4.8 | 5.8 |
State elections in Schleswig-Holstein: SPD experiences “debacle”
+++ 6.20 p.m .:
While the CDU celebrates its victory, the SPD did poorly in the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein.
The long-standing head of the SPD, Ralf Stegner, was quoted by the NDR as saying: “The result is a debacle for the SPD.
We have to do good opposition politics now.”
+++ 6.14 p.m .:
The SSW manages to jump over the five percent hurdle for the first time since 1950, while the AfD could stay below it and miss out on entering the state parliament.
For the CDU, the big winner of the election evening in Kiel, it is about something completely different: With 35 seats in the state parliament, the party could achieve an absolute majority - with the 6 p.m. forecast, according to NDR, it is 34 seats.
The AfD top candidate Jörg Nobis and his party have to tremble to enter the state parliament of Schleswig-Holstein.
© Marcus Brandt/dpa
First forecast for the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein: Daniel Günther (CDU) clearly wins
+++ 6 p.m .:
The first forecasts for the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein are there.
The CDU with the incumbent Prime Minister Daniel Günther received the most votes – Günther was considered the favourite.
The other numbers of the forecast after the closing of the polling stations in Schleswig-Holstein:
The first results of the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein at a glance:
CDU | 43.0 (+11) |
SPD | 15.5 (-11.8) |
Green | 17.0 (+4.1) |
FDP | 7.0 (-4.5) |
SSW | 6.0 (+2.7) |
AfD | 4.9 (-1.0) |
Source: ARD, as of 6:00 p.m |
Forecast for the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein: SSW without a five percent hurdle
+++ 5.45 p.m .:
The first forecast for the state election in Schleswig-Holstein will be published shortly.
Favorite is the incumbent Prime Minister Daniel Günther from the CDU.
The party had recently suffered defeats in Saarland and in the federal elections and is now hoping for a good result, which should give it a boost for the upcoming state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia next weekend.
According to polls, the SPD and the Greens are likely to be fighting for second place, while the FDP was last at eight to nine percent in the polls.
+++ 5.25 p.m .:
The first forecasts and projections for the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein will be announced in about half an hour.
One thing is already certain: For the South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW) - a minority and regional party - as a party of the Danish minority, the five percent hurdle does not apply.
Other parties, on the other hand, have to tremble according to the latest polls: The AfD, which has been in the Schleswig-Holstein state parliament since 2017, achieved five to six percent in the polls, the left, which has not been represented in the Kiel state parliament since 2012, should be according to the polls stay further out.
View of a polling station during the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein.
(Archive image) © Carsten Rehder/dpa
Waiting for forecasts and projections in Schleswig-Holstein: tragic incident at the polling station
+++ 3.34 p.m .:
The wait for the forecasts and projections for the election in Schleswig-Holstein is overshadowed by a tragic incident in the Eckernförde constituency: As the NDR reports, an election board died there at noon.
The state returning officer Tilo von Riegen announced that the man was found motionless in his chair.
Because of the rescue operation, the polling station was closed for about an hour, explained von Riegen.
In the constituency of Eckernförde, the incumbent Prime Minister of Schleswig-Holstein, Daniel Günther (CDU), and the top candidate of the SPD, Thomas Losse-Müller, are running directly against each other.
Forecasts and projections for the Schleswig-Holstein election from 6 p.m
+++ 3.10 p.m .:
The polling stations are open until 6 p.m. in the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein, then there will be the first forecast.
This is based on post-election surveys, the so-called “Exit Polls”.
From around 6.30 p.m. the first projections can be expected, which will then be based on the first counted constituencies.
However, the polls before the elections in Schleswig-Holstein allow a forecast to be made in advance: the incumbent Prime Minister Daniel Günther (CDU) has a good chance of another term in office.
He is the prime minister with the highest approval ratings.
Update from Sunday, May 8th, 1 p.m.:
In Schleswig-Holstein, elections are held today.
The polling stations have been open since 8 a.m.
The first forecasts and projections will be available from 6 p.m.
However, there is already a forecast: voter turnout in Schleswig-Holstein could be lower than five years ago.
If 21.5 percent of those entitled to vote had cast their vote by 11 a.m., this year it is only 16.3 percent.
This comes from figures from the state returning officer.
State elections in Schleswig-Holstein: The first forecast comes at 6 p.m., projections later
First report from Sunday, May 8th:
Kiel – The Schleswig-Holstein state elections are scheduled for May 8th, 2022.
The voters help to decide who will run the government in the northernmost state for the next five years.
The CDU, which is clearly ahead in polls before the vote, has good chances.
State election Schleswig-Holstein | |
|---|---|
date | May 8, 2022 |
Opening times of the polling stations | 8 a.m. to 6 p.m |
publication of forecasts | 6 p.m |
Publication of the first projections | from about 6.30 p.m |
Prime Minister Daniel Günther is therefore very likely to lead the next state government.
But the top candidates from the other parties also want to have a say in the question of the next government.
At the most recent TV trill, a discussion about wind energy flared up.
SPD candidate Thomas Losse-Müller accused the government of not making any progress on expansion.
Daniel Günther rejected the criticism.
Schleswig-Holstein state elections: when will the first forecasts be available?
However, before the parties discuss which coalitions should be formed, voters lay the groundwork on election Sunday (May 8, 2022).
Anyone who has German citizenship, is at least 16 years old on the day of the election and has been registered in Schleswig-Holstein for six weeks can take part in the state elections.
You can vote by post in advance or put your cross at the polling station between 8 a.m. and 6 p.m. on election Sunday.
But when can you expect the first forecasts and projections?
State elections in Schleswig-Holstein: surveys provide information on the result
As soon as the polling stations close at 6 p.m., the poll workers start counting the votes.
At the same time, i.e. also at 6 p.m., the first forecast will be published.
For this purpose, representative post-election surveys are carried out on election day.
In the so-called "Exit Polls", voters in selected constituencies are asked to fill out questionnaires anonymously.
Then the first statements about the turnout can be made.
You can find background information on the election in our overview of maps and data for the Schleswig-Holstein state election.
Schleswig-Holstein state election: Projections of the result
In contrast to the forecasts, the projections for the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein are based on the first counted votes.
They are usually published from 6.30 p.m.
As the counting of the ballot papers progresses, the extrapolations become more and more meaningful.
The results will follow later in the evening or at night.
The Wahl-O-Mat can help with the voting decision.
The state elections in Schleswig-Holstein can be followed live on TV and live stream.
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