Election projections from Schleswig-Holstein: These are the numbers for Günther, SPD and Greens
Created: 05/08/2022, 20:58
By: Marcus Giebel, Cindy Boden, Felix Durach
In Schleswig-Holstein, three politicians were hoping for the office of prime minister.
However, the first figures paint a clear picture.
Forecast and extrapolations in the ticker.
Schleswig-Holstein
elected its 20th state parliament this Sunday (8 May).
In the first projections of the evening, the AfD has to worry about returning to parliament.
The CDU is the big winner of the evening and has a result of more than 40 percent in the forecast.
We'll keep you up to date on our
forecast and projections in our ticker
.
Update from May 8, 8:35 p.m .:
According to the latest projections, Prime Minister Daniel Günther and the CDU are spoiled for choice when looking for one or more coalition partners for the next five years.
According to the current status, a traffic light coalition would have a majority, as would an alliance of CDU and Greens and CDU and FDP.
In purely mathematical terms, a coalition of the CDU and SPD, as well as the CDU and SSW, would also be conceivable.
ARD/infratest dimap | CDU | SPD | Green | FDP | AfD | SSW | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Extrapolation 7:58 p.m | 43.5 percent | 16.0 percent | 17.9 percent | 6.5 percent | 4.7 percent | 5.8 percent | 5.7 percent |
Extrapolation 7:15 p.m | 42.7 percent | 15.5 percent | 17.7 percent | 6.7 percent | 4.8 percent | 6.2 percent | 6.4 percent |
Extrapolation 6:58 p.m | 42.6 percent | 15.7 percent | 17.5 percent | 6.8 percent | 4.8 percent | 6.1 percent | 6.5 percent |
Extrapolation 6:44 p.m | 42.8 percent | 15.5 percent | 17.2 percent | 7.0 percent | 4.9 percent | 6.0 percent | 6.6 percent |
Forecast 6 p.m | 43.0 percent | 15.5 percent | 17.0 percent | 7.0 percent | 4.9 percent | 6.0 percent | 6.6 percent |
ZDF/research group elections | CDU | SPD | Green | FDP | AfD | SSW | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Extrapolation 8:06 p.m | 43.4 percent | 16.0 percent | 17.7 percent | 6.4 percent | 4.7 percent | 5.8 percent | 6.1 percent |
Extrapolation 7:23 p.m | 42.4 percent | 15.6 percent | 17.9 percent | 6.8 percent | 4.4 percent | 6.2 percent | 6.7 percent |
Extrapolation 7 p.m | 42.1 percent | 15.6 percent | 18.4 percent | 6.9 percent | 4.5 percent | 6.2 percent | 6.3 percent |
Extrapolation 6:44 p.m | 41.3 percent | 16.0 percent | 19.3 percent | 7.0 percent | 4.6 percent | 6.0 percent | 5.8 percent |
Forecast 6 p.m | 41.0 percent | 16.0 percent | 19.5 percent | 7.0 percent | 4.5 percent | 6.0 percent | 6.6 percent |
Forecasts and projections for the election in Schleswig-Holstein: CDU triumphs - SSW increases significantly
Update from May 8, 7:25 p.m.:
The other projections also clarify the picture.
While the CDU is the big winner of the evening, the SPD is making double-digit losses.
According to the latest figures from ARD, the Social Democrats have lost 11.8 percentage points compared to the 2017 state elections. In addition to the Greens, who recorded significant gains in votes, the SSW can also look forward to a strong result.
The party of the Danish minority in Schleswig-Holstein is currently at 6.2 percent and thus makes it through its own efforts over the five percent hurdle, from which the minority party is exempt anyway.
Forecasts and extrapolations for the election in Schleswig-Holstein: CDU in extrapolations over 40 percent
Update from May 8, 6:44 p.m.:
The first projections clarify the picture of the forecasts.
The CDU can celebrate itself as a big winner and will probably receive more than 40 percent of the votes.
Even in the first projections, the AfD must continue to worry about re-entering the state parliament.
According to ARD figures, the right-wing populists are 4.9 percent.
In the ZDF numbers, the AfD is only 4.6 percent.
Forecasts and projections for the election in Schleswig-Holstein: CDU can cheer after forecasts - AfD has to worry
Update from May 8, 6:09 p.m.:
According to the 6 p.m. forecast, Prime Minister Daniel Günther leads the CDU to a clear election victory in Schleswig-Holstein and is expected to remain Prime Minister.
As of 6:00 p.m., the SPD had to make double-digit losses compared to 2017.
According to the forecast, the voters are divided among the coalition partners of the CDU.
While the Greens raked in profits, the FDP lost votes to a similar extent.
The prognosis would have consequences, especially for the AfD, which is currently failing just under the five percent hurdle and would therefore be thrown out of the state parliament.
Forecasts and projections for the election in Schleswig-Holstein: CDU clearly ahead - SPD slips
Update from May 8th, 6 p.m.:
The first numbers of the evening are here.
These are the forecasts for the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein at 6 p.m.
Forecasts and projections for the election in Schleswig-Holstein: Günther before his second term
Update from May 8, 5:10 p.m.:
In less than an hour, at 6 p.m., the forecast for the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein is expected.
This is followed by further projections over the course of the evening.
These then give an initial indication of which coalition will govern in Kiel over the next five years.
Does the traffic light alliance continue or is the CDU even satisfied with just one junior partner?
The first answers will be given later in the evening.
Forecasts and projections for the election in Schleswig-Holstein: voter turnout lower than in 2017
Update from May 8, 2:52 p.m .:
According to the state election authority in Schleswig-Holstein, the turnout at 2 p.m. is lower again than five years ago: According to the website, it is now 36.8 percent.
In 2017 it was already 42.5 percent.
Schleswig-Holstein Prime Minister Daniel Günther on election day © Axel Heimken/AFP
Update from May 8, 1:40 p.m .:
In the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein, fewer voters went to the polls on Sunday morning than five years ago.
By 11 a.m., 16.3 percent had cast their votes in the polling stations, as the state returning officer announced on his website.
At this point in 2017, 21.5 percent had done so.
The turnout at the time was 64.2 percent.
However, postal voting, which had gained new popularity as a result of the corona pandemic, is also important in such comparisons.
According to earlier information, the deputy state returning officer, Maik Petersen, assumed that postal voting would be used frequently.
In 2017, the proportion of postal votes was 18 percent.
Forecast and projections for the election in Schleswig-Holstein: 16 parties are running
Update from May 8, 11:55 a.m.:
The polling stations in Schleswig-Holstein are open until 6 p.m.
16 parties compete with state lists.
The same number of direct candidates are elected in the 35 constituencies.
Five years ago, voter turnout was 64.2 percent.
The first forecast of the outcome of the election is expected shortly after 6 p.m.
Daniel Günther (from left to right), Prime Minister and CDU top candidate, Bernd Buchholz, top candidate of the FDP, Monika Heinold, top candidate of the Greens, and Thomas Losse-Müller, top candidate of the SPD, are standing together in the boxing ring after the "political boxing" in the Nordmarkhalle (archive photo ) © Marcus Brandt/dpa
Update from May 8, 10:10 a.m .:
As a party of the Danish minority, the South Schleswig Voters’ Association (SSW) is exempt from the five percent clause in the elections in Schleswig-Holstein.
But he has to get a minimum number of votes in order to get at least one mandate.
On this basis, the party, which also represents the Frisian minority, has been in parliament since 1958, but for a long time only with one member.
From 2012 to 2017, the SSW formed a government with the SPD and the Greens.
The SSW will also play a role again in the projections on Sunday evening, but there is currently less discussion about government participation.
Forecast and projections for the election in Schleswig-Holstein: High approval ratings for the Jamaica coalition
Update from May 8, 8.45 a.m .:
The people of Schleswig-Holstein will re-elect the state parliament this Sunday.
The polling stations have been open since 8 a.m.
According to the polls, the CDU of Prime Minister Daniel Günther (CDU) can count on a clear victory.
But will the extrapolations in the evening show that?
A coalition of CDU, Greens and FDP currently governs in the north.
The government has high approval ratings;
Günther personally is also popular with sympathizers from other parties.
Prime Minister Daniel Günther (CDU): Will he remain in office in Schleswig-Holstein?
(Archive image) © Christian Charisius/dpa
Election in Schleswig-Holstein: do the projections confirm the clear trend?
First report:
Munich – Does Jamaica have a future in the far north?
That will be decided this Sunday (May 8th) in Schleswig-Holstein.
Since 2017, the CDU, FDP and Greens have governed together in a very rare constellation.
They form the first cabinet of Prime Minister Daniel Günther, who is standing for re-election this year.
This time the Christian Democrat is up against Thomas Losse-Müller from the SPD and Monika Heinold from the Greens.
The latter is finance minister and at the same time Günther's deputy.
The 20th state parliament of the northernmost federal state will consist of at least 69 deputies, the number can still increase due to overhang and equalization mandates.
Election in Schleswig-Holstein: Forecast is expected for 6 p.m. – then projections will follow
2.3 million people are called upon to cast their votes in the second state election of the year.
The first forecast can be expected at 6 p.m. on election night when the bars close.
The extrapolations will then follow at intervals, the first of which will probably already be at 6.30 p.m.
Most recently, the trend was clearly pointing in the direction of black.
That's why it could be enough for a two-party alliance this year.
There are even indications of a fairly stable majority for black-green, for black-yellow - last tested in Peter Harry Carstensen's second term of office - it could just be enough.
So Günther, who was recently struggling with a corona infection, might not have to rely on a continuation of the Jamaica coalition.
Forecasts for the election in Schleswig-Holstein: Greens apparently close to the SPD
According to the polls, the CDU can get 36 to 38 percent, while the SPD apparently ends up at 20 percent.
That would be another bitter loss for the Chancellor's party.
16 to 17 percent are indicated for the Greens, the FDP will very likely remain in the single digits.
In contrast to the left, the AfD seems to be able to get into the state parliament.
The South Schleswig Voters' Association (SSW), which represents the Danish minority and is exempt from the five percent hurdle, can hope for five percent.
You can read more about the results of the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein in this ticker.
Anything but a second term for Günther would be a big surprise - it would be the first CDU election victory at state level since Saxony-Anhalt last June.
At that time, Reiner Haseloff got 37.1 percent and thus kept the AfD at a clear distance.
Even in the event of a direct election, Günther would have the best chance of continuing to govern in Schleswig-Holstein.
In March and April surveys by Infratest dimap and the Wahlen research group had passed the 60 percent mark, but now it had to be content with 49 percent at INSA.
Losse-Müller, who has always remained in the single digits, came to 13 percent there.
But that could also be related to the fact that Heinold was not explicitly listed as a candidate this time.
The Greens had previously stood regularly in front of their SPD colleagues, but never got more than twelve percent approval.
It's good to laugh: Prime Minister Daniel Günther (left) watches challenger Thomas Losse-Müller being prepared for the Triell.
© Axel Heimken/afp
Election in Schleswig-Holstein: The result from 2017 at a glance
CDU | SPD | Green | FDP | AfD | left | SSW | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
32 | 27.3 | 12.9 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.5 |
A look at the result from 2017 shows that the coalition parties, apart from the FDP, are apparently doing even better with the voters.
The big loser, on the other hand, seems to be the SPD again, whose top candidate Torsten Albig was voted out of office five years ago.
Hardly any major shifts are to be expected among the smaller parties.
(mg)